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Old 18 March 2020, 02:56 AM   #2422
77T
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Real Name: PaulG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mgsooner View Post
It is worth reading this paper from the Imperial College COVID-19 response team. This paper came out early yesterday and drove some of the policy decisions we saw rolled out in the US and UK yesterday.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

I read this last night, and it is a lot to take in. My takeaway was that unless we literally want to see the next Great Depression at some point we are going to have to accept that there will be some heightened risk of getting sick/dying over the next 12-18 months and go back to our lives. It is simply not sustainable to do what it would require to keep this completely 100% at bay. It would require 18 months of what the US is currently attempting to do for 15 days.

The solution may be to apply these extreme measures on a rolling basis, and regionally on an as-needed basis. We will also need to continue to come up with new and innovative ways to live our lives that reduces the rate of transmission.

Of course there is always the hope that we are able to innovate and come up with better ways to treat the disease. A vaccine is likely impossible until 2021.


The paper explains in detail what I had supplied earlier in this modified chart.



During that long blue tail, people are still becoming ill and possibly dying. But it gives time to find better courses of treatment (or combinations) for the deadly pneumonia that is killing the vast majority of patients.

HK has done very well with isolation. The question is how long that can go. Eventually supporting systems could break down and people stop the good practices that led to the original containment.

The WH just advised we won’t go to the lockdown at this time. We are giving it 2 weeks to see if our plan bends the curve.


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