[soicanbefree]

One more thought I am now 100% convinced that to mark the bottom you will have to see a top Grey dealer get liquidated.

From an unnamed dealer who used to pretty much track market and turn inventory quickly. These are all current asking with a recent MODA price in parentheses. I'm sure there are cheaper I'm not taking that long to search with the Facebook function which isn't the best. Now imagine you are underwater the below percentages times 100s of watches.

Rolex 116500LN Black 40,875 (Today 26,750)

Rolex 116505 RG Black 64,875 (Aug 1 52,000)

Rolex 116509 Meteorite 133,875 (July 2 shipped 65,500)

Rolex 116610LN 17,575 (July 19 10,750)

Rolex 228235 RG Olive 73,575 (June 2 58,800)

If you know how to wizard yourself out of that as a business then god bless.

So I'd look for a bankruptcy / liquidation / capitulation from at least one major dealer to mark the bottom.