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Old 31 March 2020, 10:01 AM   #4512
Waterproofpt
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Real Name: Paul Thomas
Location: Victoria BC
Watch: GMT Fat Lady
Posts: 196
Have to be careful interpreting ‘new’ cases as a continued uptick in the rate of spread. We could have a flat curve in terms of the actual total number of cases .... and have an apparent continuous rise in the curve simply because we are testing so many more people and become more aware of the actual numbers. But it doesn’t necessarily mean the overall numbers are still rising.
And it’s skewed because we’ve only been testing those who are symptomatic.
As someone else mentioned, we’d need to be testing virtually everyone, every week to get accurate rates of increase or decrease for that matter.
OR test huge numbers of people randomly to get rates of infection.

Remember, (the same) database can be cherry picked and presented to support almost any argument you want. So we have to be careful interpreting it or making conclusions from it.
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