As we discuss the options with this pandemic, it might be worthwhile to set reasonable expectations. The choice of flattening the curve versus accepting a glut of new infections has an assumption that we will have a vaccine in 12-18 months. But there is also experience when vaccines are not forthcoming.
Please consider the last coronavirus borne respiratory disease: MERS.
The first known cases of MERS occurred in April 2012.
There is currently no vaccine to protect people against MERS. But scientists are working to develop one. It has been 8 years since the initial outbreak.
MERS can affect anyone. MERS patients have ranged in age from younger than 1 to 99 years old.
Most MERS patients developed severe respiratory illness with symptoms of fever, cough and shortness of breath.
There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for MERS-CoV infection.
For severe cases, treatment includes care to support vital organ functions.
About 3 or 4 out of every 10 patients reported with MERS have died. A mortality rate of approximately 35%.
Some chilling parallels and some differences, don’t you think?
Public policy choices for MERS were prevention, isolation and similar hygiene protocols that we hear today for COVID-19. Fortunately the Arabian peninsula isn’t as densely populated as China.
Why mention MERS? It may have been a dress rehearsal for humankind to tackle our current play. Because as we debate flattening the curve vs acquiring “herd immunity”, we shouldn’t lose sight of history.
We may not get a vaccine. We may need to protect and isolate for much longer than forecasted.
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