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Originally Posted by Dubshack
Joey this is not to you directly but rather a general expansion of Blanksy’s question based on your response. It appears the whole world must wait for a vaccine in 12-18 months by these options.
With so many countries, and states for that matter, at different stages of quarantine, there is no chance of stopping the spread, unless worldwide travel is completely stopped. I’m talking even travel from state to state. If California reports no new cases for a week, what’s to stop some infected people from another state coming in and starting the whole process over again, and infecting the whole group of people that never got infected during the first wave? What’s the long term plan beyond a month or two of quarantine?
This is why many on this thread are saying, to hell with it, let’s just get back to work. The economy cannot do this for 12-18 months while waiting for a vaccine.
I’m not sure where I fall on the fence. I now know of 2 cases of young healthy fathers (< 42 yrs old) succumbing to COVID-19. Its a scary proposition to open the floodgates, but I’m afraid we are going to have to.
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This is the only ONE of the problems going on. We do not have a coordinated effort to reduce the spread of this virus. Currently, individual states are deciding when they need to shelter in place. This creates the scenario you describe. If we could have the entire country shelter in place, it would give the country to do the following:
- States with low number of cases could slow the spread even faster because 1) people from other states won’t be coming 2) the Small # of people who are currently sick within the state aren’t infecting the large #s of people who aren’t sick 3) the hospitals and healthcare system will have a chance to test, track and treat patients.
- States with high cases like NY, WA, etc. are doing what they are already doing. The hope would be that with the states with low cases will quickly get things under control so resources could be allocated to states that need the most help.
The time of sheltering is completely dependent on the number of cases. If you start with a small number and you control it, your time will be short. For a place like NY, the time will be long because the virus is so widespread.
Also, during this time, hopefully we can get widespread testing and tracing in place so we can identify where the trouble spots are and can do more targeted quarantines. We can’t do that today because we have no idea who is sick. Remember people who look healthy are transmitting the virus to people. Without testing, we can’t tell those people to stay home.
The thing we have to understand is that we are ALL in this together. As much as everyone wants to go back to normal, the world will be a very different place after this and we will hav to adapt. Humans are good at that.