Quote:
Originally Posted by hcivic91
Statsman : I’d like your read of the evidence. In previous posts I’ve stated that even with bending the curve 60% still need to get the virus before it begins to go away. Social distancing does not change that percentage just delays it. It feels to me like the whole world views social distancing as a cure meaning it will make the bug go away. Seems like your thinking may be heading in the 60% direction?
As a mathematician, I’d point those interested to the ‘mathematical modeling of infectious disease.’ The first equation on the page implies that with an R-0 of ~2.5, 60% need antibodies before herd immunity kicks in.
Others like to weigh in?
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This is key - only two outcomes. We either get to 60% infected and recovered or we get a vaccine before we reach that point in time. Bending the curve is only to manage the caseloads impact on resources but the end point is the same - 60% or vaccine.