Quote:
Originally Posted by SPMN
The truth is we don't have enough data to currently know exactly what the transmissibility is. They did a study on the Princess Diamond cruise ship and found that on average, each person would infect 2.28 others. This is known as the "R-Nought." The seasonal flu has an r-nought value of about 1.3. So the average infected person with the normal flu will infect 1.3 others. Some studies have the Covid 19 r-nought value higher, at almost 3. The WHO estimates it between 1.3 and 2.5. I don't think I've seen a single study showing its transmissibility is lower than the seasonal flu.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate
It's important to know that environmental factors play a role in this number. Are the dynamics on a cruise ship the same as the real world? Probably not. Then again, is the population of a cruise ship healthier and more resilient to catching a virus than the general population? Maybe, maybe not. We need time and data to study these things.
So, in a nutshell, that's the cause of the fear. At best, it transmits the same as the seasonal flu, but kills at a rate 20x higher. At worst, it transmits about double the seasonal flu, and still kills 20x as many infected.
As to why China isn't experiencing many millions infected...well they put in place some of the most severe measures to stop the spread of a disease than any country ever has before. They put an entire province under quarantine, complete with drones that would identify people who were moving around. They built multiple hospitals in 10 (TEN!) days.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ther-countries
But if you think they did all that because of the western media, well, more power to you I guess. |
Whoa whoa whoa there!!!!! 20x higher kill rate then flu???... I’m really hoping I misunderstood you. We lose between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year to the flu. That would mean 1 million Americans are going to die because of coronavirus and that’s if it only transmits at the same level as the flu as you stated above. Is that what you read somewhere? I have not heard anyone say that. If what you read is right then any day now we should hear of millions of people being infected followed by hundreds of thousands of people dying shortly after. Nothing I have seen or read comes anywhere close to those numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alphadweller
I don't have data at hand to judge the severity of the disease and how contagious it is, the latest reports seem to point to a higher R0 compared to flu. But amid so much disinformation, how do we know? I'm pretty sure governments around the world have access to real and up to date information from epidemiologists.
Municipalities have been quarantined in Italy lately and 50k people were isolated, this was considered "absolutely necessary" by the authorities in order to contain the virus. They must have good reasons to take such measures, I think.
So despite the comments I hear here and there, based on what I know I'm not comfortable criticizing the measures authorities are taking to try and limit the spread.
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I don’t think anyone is criticizing our governments response to this. I think it’s smart for them to get on top of it as they have from the beginning. The only thing I have criticized is the markets response to it. I hate to see economic damage done before we know what’s going to happen because if nothing happens then the economic damage is still there. The truth is a lot of people are going to lose their jobs because of the massive sell off last week. My hope is everyone calmly prepares and cooler heads prevail with less panic until we know more. If the people who are predicting the worst are correct then what we will see in the coming weeks is literally hundreds of thousands of sick people if not more and so then we will know. I pray that doesn’t happen.