|
I posted this in another thread：
The mortality rate is in line with the influenza death rate in China (around 1.6-2.6%). There are currently around 1.2 billion people in China; that there currently just over 6,000 cases is statistically irrelevant. People should be concerned, but as of right now there is an overreaction. That it is Spring Festival made the situation worse. Arguably this is why the Chinese government imposed a lockdown on Wuhan etc. There will be a lot more cases and deaths (just like any major flu outbreak), but right now the level of paranoia and fear is quite breathtaking.
I will also add that most of the deaths have been to the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. By way of comparison, there have been about 6,600 deaths due to influenza in the US this flu season. It is still early days and the death toll as a percentage may rise quite dramatically. Time will tell.
|