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thase13 · 18 February 2020, 05:28 AM

My predictions:

1. There will be a slow migration away from smartwatches back into mechanicals post-AWWDC as the younger generation begins to question the efficacy of annually upgrading their watches for diminishing levels of functionality and utility. The Apple iWatch is currently sitting on its Gen 5 iteration and it's yet to be determined if people want to upgrade both their phone and their watch on an annual basis. The big question is, will people continue to stay on the Apple treadmill and follow them into the Gen 6, Gen7, Gen100 implementations of the iWatch? If the answer is no, this migration away from the smartwatch may cascade up the food chain as new buyers discover and settle into their respective socio-economic niches.

2. There will be across the board price increases as the Euro and European economies continue to weaken against the dollar and strengthen against the yuan. The overall strength of the dollar coupled with a general post-Brexit weakening of the euro will dis-incent manufacturers from shifting inventory flow away from a contracting Chinese economy into an expanding and receptive US economy due to favorable offsetting exchange rate factors. Instead, expect watch companies to maintain the status quo.

3. Also applying pressure against lower prices will be the effect the Coronavirus has on Chinese austenitic stainless steel production. IIRC, China produces over 50% of the world's stainless steel. US manufactures could step in but the bi-partisan focus in 2020 per the recent State of the Union address will be on infrastructure, so I see most of American-made steel going there. The regional hyper-environmental attitudes will hamper European steel production and rule them out as a secondary source.

4. Independent brands will continue to question the efficacy of SIHH and Baselworld as the deep pockets at Richemont and LVMH continue to assert their conglomerate industry-shaping power. The watch world will be closely monitoring the success of Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille as they embark on a journey to market and sell directly to the customer drastically altering the retail dynamic. If the independent route succeeds then this could lead more independents toward moving to this B2C model, effectively eliminating the uncertainty and brand destabilization brought on by the adverse behaviors of the middleman. If this happens, then this could result in under-feeding the grey market causing grey market prices to rise.

18 February 2020, 05:28 AM	#10
thase13 "TRF" Member Join Date: Feb 2020 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 20	My predictions: 1. There will be a slow migration away from smartwatches back into mechanicals post-AWWDC as the younger generation begins to question the efficacy of annually upgrading their watches for diminishing levels of functionality and utility. The Apple iWatch is currently sitting on its Gen 5 iteration and it's yet to be determined if people want to upgrade both their phone and their watch on an annual basis. The big question is, will people continue to stay on the Apple treadmill and follow them into the Gen 6, Gen7, Gen100 implementations of the iWatch? If the answer is no, this migration away from the smartwatch may cascade up the food chain as new buyers discover and settle into their respective socio-economic niches. 2. There will be across the board price increases as the Euro and European economies continue to weaken against the dollar and strengthen against the yuan. The overall strength of the dollar coupled with a general post-Brexit weakening of the euro will dis-incent manufacturers from shifting inventory flow away from a contracting Chinese economy into an expanding and receptive US economy due to favorable offsetting exchange rate factors. Instead, expect watch companies to maintain the status quo. 3. Also applying pressure against lower prices will be the effect the Coronavirus has on Chinese austenitic stainless steel production. IIRC, China produces over 50% of the world's stainless steel. US manufactures could step in but the bi-partisan focus in 2020 per the recent State of the Union address will be on infrastructure, so I see most of American-made steel going there. The regional hyper-environmental attitudes will hamper European steel production and rule them out as a secondary source. 4. Independent brands will continue to question the efficacy of SIHH and Baselworld as the deep pockets at Richemont and LVMH continue to assert their conglomerate industry-shaping power. The watch world will be closely monitoring the success of Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille as they embark on a journey to market and sell directly to the customer drastically altering the retail dynamic. If the independent route succeeds then this could lead more independents toward moving to this B2C model, effectively eliminating the uncertainty and brand destabilization brought on by the adverse behaviors of the middleman. If this happens, then this could result in under-feeding the grey market causing grey market prices to rise.