Obtaining a 116500 - More questions

[bmwsubmariner]

Hi Everyone,
Have wanted a black 116500 Daytona since it came out. 116520 was good, but 116500 is when I knew I wanted a Daytona. I prefer 6 digit bracelets which rules out the 16520. Obvious problem is the current price of the 500 at $27-33k depending on the gray dealer.

Current collection is two Omega SMP’s (family pieces/gifts and won’t sell), and a 116600 that I bought 6 months old in 2016. I’m a fan of that watch. I have small wrists and it does wear tall and a bit top heavy. Daytona fits better. This also means I have three divers. I’m also a huge car enthusiast, so Daytona fits. In a prior post and through some messages with members here, most advise to keep the SD4K citing how good the proportions are, how clean it is and the short production run.

I haven’t purchased a watch since 2016 and am getting the itch to hunt something down and celebrate a milestone birthday and work event.

Anyone have input on these options? Which would you do?:
1) keep SD4K, add something less expensive like a 16710 Pepsi or 16570 ExpII. On a less expensive watch, maybe I’d be ok with the stamped bracelet. I like both of those watches, but had a 216570 previously and that went after 2 years. Was ok, not perfect to me.
2) keep SD4K, compromise on a less expensive 116520. Cross the Daytona off my list and then cash out of it in a few years. I really dislike compromise on things like this, but with it being $5k cheaper, maybe I can scratch the itch for less.
3) sell SD4K, add $10k+ to the deal and get my “grail”, the 116500. The option I’ve considered most, but many say don’t do and it is a ton of cash to add. I can basically get another watch, if not two watches, for just the price difference. Are people actually paying $27k+ for gray market 116500s, or is there/will there be wiggle room? Feel free to DM me if you can share. Yes, I could of course reach out to a gray, but prefer not to waste their time until 100% ready to rock. I feel like the 500, having a Ceramic bezel, sort of could replace the SD4K from a durability/wear perspective even though I'm easy on my watches.

Questions:
1) I know many don’t like to speculate, but anyone think the 500 will come down more? I’m in no rush and would prefer another 6-12+ months before making the move. But I’m sure 126500 MSRP is only going up each year.
2) anyone have input, if I go with 3 above, on selling first, then finding a 116500 vs trading all at once? My thought with trading is I may have more leverage as the seller is making money on both sides.

Appreciate your thoughts and apologies for the long post.

[Oytun]

I wouldn't pay over $25K for black dial 116500 today (used). It can go up in near future, but won't pay 27 today. But i also wouldn't sell my SD4K :)


3) You can take me as an example. I didn't want to wait for AD, i also don't really like 126500. So i paid 32K for unworn 2023 dated white dial. Another guy bought an used 2021 one for $29.5 right before me, so i had to get the unworn one that was available. So yes, people are paying these prices and no i don't think prices will come down more. But no one can tell. You can find black one for $24-25K today easily.

[Hulkhunter]

I’d buy a gold one instead of paying 30k for steel. The Oysterflex models can be had for the same as a steel. Or even some older white gold or yellow gold on bracelet can be had for similar money.

[Daytonaman799]

Having gone down this road many times I think you are probably better off just biting the bullet. Eventually you will end up in the same place regardless.

[Mystro]

First, the ceramic bezel on the Daytona is infinitely more resistant to everyday wear and tear over a metal bezel that shows every hairline and mark if that matters to you. Price point now is low and not a bad time to purchase as it may float slightly lower but not enough at this point to wait IMO. End of summer is always the slowest time for watch sales and prices are reflecting that on every model.
Prices will inevitably creep up over time as this watch is and will always be THE sought after Rolex model to the masses and it’s a discontinued model which also has its appeal over time.

[HMHM]

These kind of questions always have a counter question - if tomorrow the Daytona loses 15% of whatever you paid for, would you feel worried? If the answer is yes, then don’t go ahead. If the losses do not concern you one bit, then go ahead and buy it.

FYI, interest rates are up again. War doesn’t seem to be ending any time soon. Fitch downgraded US credit rating to AA+. UK economy doesn’t seem to be doing particularly well based on ground sentiment. So many uncertainties. Do you think the 500 will survive the current crisis and continue to go up? Is the 500LN some kind of magic glazed unicorn that can withstand all economic factors?

[huncho]

realistically it will always cost you more than 30k to get a steel daytona at msrp. it was never available and even in 2018-2019 you had to spend more than 30k just to have a chance to get one. if that's your end goal just get it and enjoy

[Oytun]

Originally Posted by huncho

realistically it will always cost you more than 30k to get a steel daytona at msrp. it was never available and even in 2018-2019 you had to spend more than 30k just to have a chance to get one. if that's your end goal just get it and enjoy

Can't agree more

[DarthSimon]

Prices on Daytona's wont go down much anytime soon. 10-15 Percent swings max.

[928ktgold]

Originally Posted by Hulkhunter

I’d buy a gold one instead of paying 30k for steel. The Oysterflex models can be had for the same as a steel. Or even some older white gold or yellow gold on bracelet can be had for similar money.

Gold oysterflex Daytonas start at $40k grey. Retail is $31k but not that easy to get.

[TimeAZ]

Get the one you really want

[4 Aussies]

Life is short, dollars can always be earned, get it now and enjoy it while you are able. I will never part with mine, you have good taste, looking forward to your incoming pics!!

[al7391z]

If that’s what you want and you can afford it, then do it. No point in waiting.

[Hulkhunter]

Originally Posted by jtorrebl

Gold oysterflex Daytonas start at $40k grey. Retail is $31k but not that easy to get.

I’m in the UK. Ceramic steel Daytona- black will be about £24k. White will be £26k. Can get a 2017 OF Daytona for £27k. So is close.

[GB-man]

I had an SDC as my go to rolex for about 3 years and eventually moved it on because it’s not particularly comfortable. I don’t regret it.

Bnib black dials are around 26k right now. Pre owned 24–25.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by HMHM

These kind of questions always have a counter question - if tomorrow the Daytona loses 15% of whatever you paid for, would you feel worried? If the answer is yes, then don’t go ahead. If the losses do not concern you one bit, then go ahead and buy it…

This resonates with me

[Watcheroo]

Go with your gut.

[BraveBold]

Easy call to drop the SD4K - if market turns south the SD4K will drop more vs the Daytona. Much more. Of course, because of lower starting value (much lower) $ drop will be similar. This means doing the deal now vs later is not going to make much of a difference except you’ll a) have the more sought after watch b) the one that fits you personally and c) if all this uncertainty in markets resolve, avoid paying an even larger future premium.

[m j b]

I don't really understand the poll. If you want a Daytona, buy a Daytona.

If you can't afford it, then buy a Speedmaster. Many folks consider it to be a better watch anyway.

The thing that many people don't know or have forgotten, is that the Daytona has always been a low production watch. Even before the hype they were hard to get.

[Dave4D]

Black 116500LN, early year production, can be found around €25k in France which is not the cheapest market for second hand Rolex.

[garyk]

I don't think about what I paid for something after the fact. Enjoyment outweighs...

[Vipes]

I have the SD4K and the black 116500. I much prefer the 116500 over the SD4K. I say sell the SD4K and add cash to get the 116500; don’t settle.

[AdamD98]

Speaking from experience I highly doubt you'll regret it.

I picked up an unworn/2023 card black dial back in late June. Paid $28,750 and yes fast forward 6ish weeks they have come down a bit, but it's the last thing I think about when wearing that watch.

[prnceofpersia23]

You are probably looking at more like $12-13k on top to trade the SD4K directly for the 500. Also, you'd have to find a trade partner that not only will have a good example of a 500, but would be willing to give you a reasonable price on the SD4K.

I would not settle for a 520, nor would I buy something else to scratch the itch. You'll eventually come back to the 500 and will end up paying more to get it.

I think the SD4K and the 500 would be an excellent Rolex duo that you can happily own for years. But if you must, I would sell the SD4K first, then find a reasonably priced 500.

FWIW, I own the black 500 and it's the best watch I've ever owned. It's the only watch I will never consider selling or trading. All my collection options are built around it as the centerpiece. You will not be disappointed.

[ade]

SD4K + Panda 116500 is a great [better] combo.

[bmwsubmariner]

Hi Everyone - thanks for the replies. Responding to some individual comments below, but will mention that I'm not super interested in the OysterFlex. As amazing of a band as it is, a huge part of the reason I like Rolex is for their bracelets.

Originally Posted by Oytun

I wouldn't pay over $25K for black dial 116500 today (used). It can go up in near future, but won't pay 27 today. But i also wouldn't sell my SD4K :)


3) You can take me as an example. I didn't want to wait for AD, i also don't really like 126500. So i paid 32K for unworn 2023 dated white dial. Another guy bought a used 2021 one for $29.5 right before me, so i had to get the unworn one that was available. So yes, people are paying these prices and no i don't think prices will come down more. But no one can tell. You can find black one for $24-25K today easily.

Thanks for the real world data. That is what I was looking for.

Originally Posted by HMHM

These kind of questions always have a counter question - if tomorrow the Daytona loses 15% of whatever you paid for, would you feel worried? If the answer is yes, then don’t go ahead. If the losses do not concern you one bit, then go ahead and buy it.

FYI, interest rates are up again. War doesn’t seem to be ending any time soon. Fitch downgraded US credit rating to AA+. UK economy doesn’t seem to be doing particularly well based on ground sentiment. So many uncertainties. Do you think the 500 will survive the current crisis and continue to go up? Is the 500LN some kind of magic glazed unicorn that can withstand all economic factors?

This is exactly the comment that I was hoping to get. Something to spark some thought in my mind. First, if it lost 15%, would I care? No. If it lost 50%, honestly I'd probably start caring. I look at watches like I do a vacation. I have always lost money when selling watches, because I haven't sold in the past few years and always sold back to gray. So a few thousand dollars to experience an amazing watch for a few years was always what I anticipated. Your comment on interest rates and the world economy though is part of what I was getting at. Like can these watches really hold this strong for this long? We're finally seeing sports car prices come down to some level of reality. Just wondering if/when everyone that was buying watches for the hype are going to move onto something else, which inevitably happens.

Originally Posted by GB-man

I had an SDC as my go to rolex for about 3 years and eventually moved it on because it’s not particularly comfortable. I don’t regret it.

Bnib black dials are around 26k right now. Pre owned 24–25.

$24-25k for used black dial I haven't seen, yet. Maybe MODA? But from trusted sellers I'm seeing $27k+ and was part of what I was wondering, do we think trusted sellers are going to adjust their prices anytime soon? Appreciate your input.

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Easy call to drop the SD4K - if market turns south the SD4K will drop more vs the Daytona. Much more. Of course, because of lower starting value (much lower) $ drop will be similar. This means doing the deal now vs later is not going to make much of a difference except you’ll a) have the more sought after watch b) the one that fits you personally and c) if all this uncertainty in markets resolve, avoid paying an even larger future premium.

Have thought about this too. You make great points, what I was wondering though is with the SD4K being a completely different watch that they no longer make, a very unique watch, will it hold better? I know I'm speculating and I don't mean to. But the 116500 is so far above retail at this point and the 126500 is a very similar looking watch, yes, I know the differences between the two. But I was thinking SD4K would hold at $15k and then maybe we'd see a drop to mid $20s for a good Daytona. But I also see your side that the Daytona is more sought after. On a % basis, if each dropped, it would be less on the SD4K and more on the Daytona.

Originally Posted by m j b

I don't really understand the poll. If you want a Daytona, buy a Daytona.

If you can't afford it, then buy a Speedmaster. Many folks consider it to be a better watch anyway.

The thing that many people don't know or have forgotten, is that the Daytona has always been a low production watch. Even before the hype they were hard to get.

Thanks for your input. Here's why I put the poll out there. Up to this point, the most expensive watch I ever purchased was $8500. So this is about a 3x jump for me. Can I afford it? Yes. Although really, shouldn't we all be putting our watch money in mutual funds. There's always more valuable places to put our money and this is a large purchase for me. Not many of my friends are into watches like those on this forum are. So my first thought was maybe I should spend $10k on a different Rolex, add it to my SD4K and then I could eventually sell both for a Daytona. Then I thought maybe a 520. But I don't like the aesthetics as much, but it does accomplish my dream of owning the Daytona. The reason I am thinking of trading the SD4K is because I could add $10k and then be into the end goal watch. Obviously this involves giving up a great watch, which is why I wanted to get input from others. I don't want to make a mistake that I will regret. Adding $10k is an easier wire to send and is a small jump over what I've previously paid for my watches. I agree that objectively, a lot of what Omega makes is actually better. Speedmaster is a phenomenal piece. But it isn't what I had dreamed of. I don't really need the function of the Daytona or Speedmaster. I just had set the goal years ago to get into the Daytona, hence why I want it. But appreciate the input and maybe I need to revisit the Speedmaster. I can equate it to cars. If someone has been driving an M3 and then decides to buy a GT3, that is going to be a huge jump, even if they can afford it.

Originally Posted by Vipes

I have the SD4K and the black 116500. I much prefer the 116500 over the SD4K. I say sell the SD4K and add cash to get the 116500; don’t settle.

Appreciate the input from someone that owns both! Do you find you can wear both in the same situations? I know the Daytona has PCL's, but my hope is it doesn't attract much more attention than the SD4K? Or does it?

Originally Posted by prnceofpersia23

You are probably looking at more like $12-13k on top to trade the SD4K directly for the 500. Also, you'd have to find a trade partner that not only will have a good example of a 500, but would be willing to give you a reasonable price on the SD4K.

I would not settle for a 520, nor would I buy something else to scratch the itch. You'll eventually come back to the 500 and will end up paying more to get it.

I think the SD4K and the 500 would be an excellent Rolex duo that you can happily own for years. But if you must, I would sell the SD4K first, then find a reasonably priced 500.

FWIW, I own the black 500 and it's the best watch I've ever owned. It's the only watch I will never consider selling or trading. All my collection options are built around it as the centerpiece. You will not be disappointed.

Thanks so much! Yes, I'd be trading with a trusted seller. So I'd assume any of them would be willing to take the SD4K on trade, would just come down to price.

[watchaser]

I'm a big fan of pay more now and enjoy now. If the 116500 is a piece you've been really wanting and it can be your only watch, i'd sell the SD43.

Looking at the Daytona market, you can go in and out fairly easily if you need to sell.

[dafuture]

Just go get what you want. There's no waiting out the market - nobody knows what's going to happen. Silly to compromise on a 20k+ watch too (IMO).

[Ferrari308]

Here are my thoughts.

I jumped into the deep end and bought my 116503 as my first Rolex. Yes, it's tt and yes, I think it was the right watch for ME. Couldn't care less if someone doesn't like it as much because it's got some gold in it. So, bear that in mind as you read my next analysis.

A few months ago we saw the introduction of the LeMans edition, which introduced the new caliber 4131. All of the 1165XX have used the 4130 since about 2016. This is the first time they have "upgraded" the movement since then. Note, it's not a completely different movement, but simply a different version.

I won't claim to be a techie and into all of the tiny minutiae (escapement) that separate these watches, BUT I would tend to believe that they just MIGHT carryover the new 4131 movement into the standard 1165XX models, maybe at Watches and Wonders next year. IF they do that, then I would expect that this would have an effect on 1165XX prices, perhaps driving them a little lower as everyone jockeys for their position with the new watch.

Surprised nobody has said this yet.



PDG

[Laostuh]

Never settle if the 500 is what you want. I paid $26,500 for mine on Moda back in August 22. They could be had for about the same on Moda some even less, depending condition. Good luck!