Change in Philosophy

[DJTOSUB]

I feel like there has been a significant shift in the number of TRF members that have previously said they would never pay over MSRP.

The new philosophy seems to be a variant of one or more of the following in regards to purchasing gray:

1. YOLO - You Only Live Once!
2. If you like the watch just get it - it's only money
3. Why wait when you can start enjoying the watch now
4. The demand is growing and prices are always going up
5. I'm tired of paying games with my AD
6. It's been a difficult year - I deserve a reward

Is this the new mind set?

Oh lord won't you buy me a Rolex watch.
My friends all own several, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends.
So oh lord won't you buy me a Rolex watch.

[PaulChronometer]

I wouldn't mind paying a reasonable mark-up (reasonable regarding the added value provided by a grey dealer ­­­­­– say 5-10%), but current prices don't make sense, as they seem to be disconnected to the underlying value.

[KWSub]

Yes, I think it has changed. And for multiple reasons. For one, many people thought it was ridiculous to spend $17k or $18k on a 116500 Daytona just a few years ago. Now, they’re going for double that. Same for a few other models that were going for slightly over retail, now are going significantly over retail.

Another reason is the availability across all models, and in all metal options. It used to be just SS Daytonas that were difficult to get. Then Subs and GMTs. And SS Skydwellers. Then all SS sports models. Now it’s basically every men’s model, in SS, two time, an/or PM, is difficult to get. You either have a good relationship with your AD, or you pay over MSRP. Or you don’t buy Rolex. Those are the options in today’s environment. And I don’t think this is going to change anytime soon.

[Lukebennett21]

I’m still holding off on gray as much as possible. Only scenario is leftover watches from my previous-Rolex days as a trade in.

[woodsworth]

I don't fault others for purchasing well above MSRP -- but this fella hasn't and won't.

If that means being completely content with my Rolex/AP collection as it stands, then so be it :)

[Pw92676]

IMO I’ve use to feel that if I really wanted a watch I would set a time frame. If not gotten by AD in that time I’d go grey. I still think that way but the problem is now time frames are unrealistic and premiums are high. Very lucky all my Rolex came from AD and there is nothing I am chasing. But if that changes I have no problem going grey.

[sj24k]

while i always like a deal and never want to pay more than i must, i've never looked at msrp as anything other than what it is. a suggestion. i've ALWAYS looked at the secondary market and the asking prices of trusted resellers to determine the real market value. then i align that with the value to me. if there's a watch i really want, and i've got the ability to fund it, then i buy it from whoever can get it to me quickly and at a fair market price.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Yes

[Master_Grogu]

Well I would argue if you change your mindset, ask yourself: do you have principle and do you have character?

Because to me, and my principles, I would rather forfeit the ownership of a pure luxury good than pay more than the lowest price to which I could obtain it. Money is the materialization of your time, and greys do not deserve a single minute of my life.

[Harry-57]

If I want a watch enough I will pay the going rate.

For most of my Rolex watches the going rate has been the MSRP or below. For the two Rolex watches that I couldn't find at any AD and couldn't see a realistic prospect of going on a list. let alone eventually getting it, the going rate was the grey market price. My next Rolex will be bought for MSRP, when my turn comes. The last two watches I bought were grey and included a substantial discount.

Swings and roundabouts. Pragmatism can be applied in a number of ways.

[Driver8]

I've only used greys for discontinued models simply because I have no choice of buying them from ADs any more.

Anything new I've only ever bought from my local AD, but that's simply because I've dealt with them for years so they know me, and can get me what I want without too much of a wait (most of the time!).

[IR201]

How many people who said there was no way they would buy a Daytona at 18K as it was preposterous are now saying "I wish I would have bought a Daytona at 18K"?

I am genuinely curious in that answer.

[Mystro]

I think it depends on the watch model and what you personally see it’s value. The problem is when new members to this hobby jump right in this past 3 years and actually believe this is how it always was.
As a long time Rolex owner my views have been tempered with no sign of change to the current Rolex market. I also look at what I value a watch, how I am going to use it in my collection, and how much disposable income I have to play with.
What the current market has done for me was to make my purchases of a particular model with laser focus. I don’t get the freedom to buy any time the mood strikes and it kinda takes the fun out of it. I now research and study the price index for at least 6 months or longer before I make a purchase. Buying duplicates or very similar models I already own won’t happen in this Rolex market.
It took a lot of over thinking and learning every nuance about the changes to make my recent Sub41 purchase. I honestly believe it’s a $12.5 to 14k msrp watch in my value system. If it were up in the high $19 to $21k range, I wouldn’t even consider it. Not because I can’t afford it, but I don’t value it at that price point. That is kinda how I feel about the BLRO. That said, I did very well $$$ this past year so there isn’t any Rolex purchase that I will ever even feel in my families daily lifestyle. I don’t judge what anyone else buys with a luxury purchase because I believe it’s purchased in the proper context of “they can afford it”.

[Oxfordian]

No watch is worth buying at over MSRP, if my AD cannot get what I want then I won’t buy.

However, I do understand that others think differently and are happy to pay what they see as a market rate, that’s fine it’s their money.

[DC116710LN]

I'm not a buyer at current grey market prices but I certainly can understand why others would choose to be. The shortages have consistently worsened for several years now, and while I do personally feel the top is near, it's impossible to definitively know if/when the market will correct

[gerry100]

Newbie - Not FOMO but TOTW

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by IR201

How many people who said there was no way they would buy a Daytona at 18K as it was preposterous are now saying "I wish I would have bought a Daytona at 18K"?

I am genuinely curious in that answer.

Not me. But that's because, a) I buy watches to keep and wear, not to flip, b) and even I did buy flip, selling expensive watches to anyone other than a grey is nowhere near as easy as some people think, and c) I'm just not a huge fan of the Daytona, so that relates back to point "a".

[IR201]

Originally Posted by Driver8

Not me. But that's because, a) I buy watches to keep and wear, not to flip, b) and even I did buy flip, selling expensive watches to anyone other than a grey is nowhere near as easy as some people think, and c) I'm just not a huge fan of the Daytona, so that relates back to point "a".

Fair enough, but I'm not referring to ability to flip, merely just the resilience of the mental perspective that "this is not an 18K watch, it is only worth ~12K", when said watch currently trades for around 40K.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by IR201

Fair enough, but I'm not referring to ability to flip, merely just the resilience of the mental perspective that "this is not an 18K watch, it is only worth ~12K", when said watch currently trades for around 40K.

Ah OK, I see. Well, in my opinion watches (as purely unnecessary, luxury goods) aren't ever REALLY worth a penny over MSRP. After all, that's what the manufacturer says it's worth.

That said, my personal value perception is based entirely on what something is worth to me, not what "the market" says. If I liked the Daytona enough, then I'm sure I would now be kicking myself for not buying at 18K. But to me, the Daytona is a 12K watch at best... but that's because I don't have an irrational desire to own one at all costs.

[subprimero]

It depends, if you have your Rolex bases covered, then just collect other brands. That's what I'm doing. If you don't have a decent Rolex collection then you may just have to accept the fact that the Rolex ship has sailed and, again, collect other brands that offer more current value. I don't invest in watches, I collect them, so my perspective may not common.

[bob sims]

There are still a lot of nice TT watches you can get from AD or maybe 25% over-Datejusts, Yachtmaster, Skydweller, Submariner, Seadweller. Then there are Cellini and Day Date.
Ditch the stainless and grow up!

[RealMadrid1988]

Not sure if I’ve been around long enough to see the full shift, but it wouldn’t surprise me. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that life is short, and you do indeed only live once.

I would never advocate for someone going into debt to purchase a watch (or even purchasing a watch with outstanding debt, unless it’s a mortgage), but if you have the means and it won’t materially impact your lifestyle - and, most importantly, if it’s something you really want - why not?

[drfrankenstein]

I bought a Hulk a couple of months ago at what was a price that I never thought I'd pay at the beginning of the year. It was a combination of being tired of waiting and watching the prices continue to climb (I missed out on one from a dealer that was $1500 cheaper than what I paid a month or so later). Since the watch was discontinued and I don't feel like I'd ever sell it, the delta in cost (to whatever it could potentially could decrease to in the short term) wasn't worth it for my time horizon so I pulled the trigger. On the other side, I don't feel like I would approach it the same way for something like a BLNR which I also covet, but feel that since it's still in production, it's worth waiting to see how things shake out since I have more time.

[franklee168]

Purchased my white dial last September via a trusted seller here, black dial via AD last November. I feel as if I'm way ahead of the game so I'm done.

I still like window shopping online since there's nothing in the AD's windows.

[envuks]

Originally Posted by IR201

How many people who said there was no way they would buy a Daytona at 18K as it was preposterous are now saying "I wish I would have bought a Daytona at 18K"?

I am genuinely curious in that answer.

Sure. But this is the same as me saying bitcoin wasn’t worth the ~2500per 4 years ago when friends were pushing me to invest some liquid cash I had kicking around. Hindsight is always 20/20

What’s 20 bitcoins worth today? Please don’t tell me. Wish I did. While I’m at it I’d buy a hulk or two at 12k in early 2020. Lol!


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[kaiserphoenix]

Im not a buyer of grey if its above the retail price. The reason is just simply and this isnt limited to rolex but if a brand does not deem me "worthy" for whatever reason and don't want to sell me a watch, I just go to another brand. There are so many brands in the world and I value relationships that I make throughout my journey. Thankfully Rolex is a brand that still deems me worthy so i will continue to buy.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

it’s their money.

Well, it was once.

[JRell]

I don’t want anything so bad to pay over MSRP and trust a non Rolex AD, but that is just my opinion and people can make their own decisions.

[Patton250]

Nope. First off most of these watches aren’t even really worth what they are asking for retail in my opinion. I can’t fathom paying above retail for any of them. Not even a little bit. It’s bad enough paying taxes on them at the AD. Now having said that I don’t care what other people spend their money on. Actually it’s none of my business. But it is getting pretty crazy. I mean the Daytona, AP 15500 and the king of them all the 5711. Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy out of control. I said it in another thread but people aren’t overpaying for these watches because of the horology aspect of it.

[IR201]

Originally Posted by envuks

Sure. But this is the same as me saying bitcoin wasn’t worth the ~2500per 4 years ago when friends were pushing me to invest some liquid cash I had kicking around. Hindsight is always 20/20

What’s 20 bitcoins worth today? Please don’t tell me. Wish I did. While I’m at it I’d buy a hulk or two at 12k in early 2020. Lol!


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That's kind of my point. With hindsight, you are able to realize you were wrong about bitcoin, albeit you are not kicking yourself for it because hindsight is 20/20. To me that is reasonable. However, that does not appear to be the same position with many of the MSRP based on principle folks here. Let's compare:

Knowing what you know now (hindsight), should you have invested more in Bitcoin 4 years ago? (answer: DUH!)

Knowing what you know now, should you have bought a Daytona at 18K? (common answer here: no because I have principles about MSRP).