When will the market settle?

[edisonstar23]

I know many of your are probably going to be again another thread about valuation, market predictions, etc. However, will watches like the Daytona will really hit 100k and stay there for few years?

And the hulk which is now hitting 30k will it reach $50k or higher and sustain it?


I mean come on guys- is this our new reality and our hobby will no longer be sustainable or even fun? At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.


Please chime in?


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[thenewrick]

My theory is all the new collectors will see the new references come out. Realize that with the new Pepsi, new Daytona, new whatever that this hobby is a marathon and not a sprint. They will realize there is always a new and better thing and that their obsession over 2015-2021 references was silly and how much effort they spent sprinting towards these references that are going to be old news tomorrow. That’s when all the new sprint hype folks are going to calm way the hell down.

Then we’ll see people trying to unload their 2015-2021 references and prices will plummet and things will return to normal.

All new references will always be popular to some extent. But as soon as that new Daytona with the new movement case and bracelet drops.. yea the old ones are gonna go down

[Polar Bear]

As long as people value their time more than their money, the current market trends are here to stay

Plenty of other options out there
The fact that you think that buying Rolex is "our hobby" rather than general collecting and appreciating watches is the main reason the market is inflated as it is

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

My theory is all the new collectors will see the new references come out. Realize that with the new Pepsi, new Daytona, new whatever that this hobby is a marathon and not a sprint. They will realize there is always a new and better thing and that their obsession over 2015-2021 references was silly and how much effort they spent sprinting towards these references that are going to be old news tomorrow. That’s when all the new sprint hype folks are going to calm way the hell down.

Then we’ll see people trying to unload their 2015-2021 references and prices will plummet and things will return to normal.

All new references will always be popular to some extent. But as soon as that new Daytona with the new movement case and bracelet drops.. yea the old ones are gonna go down

Then the "discontinued speculative investors" will jump on board and we'll start this cycle all over again

[KWSub]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

My theory is all the new collectors will see the new references come out. Realize that with the new Pepsi, new Daytona, new whatever that this hobby is a marathon and not a sprint. They will realize there is always a new and better thing and that their obsession over 2015-2021 references was silly and how much effort they spent sprinting towards these references that are going to be old news tomorrow. That’s when all the new sprint hype folks are going to calm way the hell down.

Then we’ll see people trying to unload their 2015-2021 references and prices will plummet and things will return to normal.

All new references will always be popular to some extent. But as soon as that new Daytona with the new movement case and bracelet drops.. yea the old ones are gonna go down

Not so sure about that. The new ceramic Daytona has only helped increase the value of the previous 116520 and the Zenith 16520 references. Same thing with most other Rolex, Patek, and AP sports watches. I’m not making a prediction that this will stay the same, in perpetuity. But in this current market, none of the “hot” and “in demand” references have been negatively impacted by the release of a new, updated model.

[edisonstar23]

There will always be a new and better. But will the market remain the same for the new references? Who knows!!!


I personally think that this is not sustainable for much longer - many folks here think it will be years for it to settle and they might be right. However, we are living in strange times - everything is overpriced because of inflation and supply chain issues.

I’m hopeful for things to return back to normal and we don’t have to deal with these crazy market


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[ronricks]

Nobody knows.

[daveswordfish]

I think to a large extent this is a trend, and like all trends will end. There’s no reason on this earth to believe that people paying these absurd prices will continue to do so over the long term. The fad will cease to exist and things will normalize quickly thereafter.


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[thenewrick]

My theory is that new demand hasn’t been through a discontinuation cycle. They’ve only known the current references.

The old stuff have gone up due to rising tide effect.

When new Daytona drops and it’s fully updated with Stella dials and true panda Paul Newman dials and all new precious metal platona references etc it’ll definitely make the current generation stop in its tracks.

The Hulk is the only older reference that continued to be very popular through the next generation and that’s because they haven’t released a new Hulk yet.

Just my theory.

I just see people that dropped Grey prices on all the current hype seeing Rolex unveil the all new references with new colors and movements and updates cases and all the new media surrounding them and they’re gonna look at their 2015 reference they paid 4x retail for and hastily try to unload them and immediately buy the new version or give up on that hobby because they will realize there’s always going to be new and better. These new folks aren’t buying Pepsi and Daytona because they want to wear them forever and think they are future classics. It’s because it’s the right now best hype etc. as soon as it’s not the best right now hype it’s gonna get dropped like disco in the 80s.

The marathon folks will stick around and be happy to pick up a 1 generation old reference. Look at the folks picking up 5 digit references right now compared to how much discussion incoming and hype is around 2015-2021 current generation hype monsters. It’s probably 1 to 100.

Don’t think rolex will be worth zero. It’ll just quickly slow down and price decline over a year or two then we will see a back to normal slow upward price curve for high demand classics and slow downward curve for low demand references aka back to normal

I think there are more collectors that ever myself included. But these new folks are rushing into the hobby 100% and it’ll burn them out when the next generation of new comes in. That enthusiasm isn’t going to continue for a decade+.

[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I know many of your are probably going to be again another thread about valuation, market predictions, etc. However, will watches like the Daytona will really hit 100k and stay there for few years?

And the hulk which is now hitting 30k will it reach $50k or higher and sustain it?


I mean come on guys- is this our new reality and our hobby will no longer be sustainable or even fun? At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.


Please chime in?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Next WEEK !!!

[MJ EXPLORER]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

As long as people value their time more than their money, the current market trends are here to stay

Plenty of other options out there
The fact that you think that buying Rolex is "our hobby" rather than general collecting and appreciating watches is the main reason the market is inflated as it is

Great point! So many great options out there.

[Old Geezer]

IMO, the watch market will follow financial markets to a significant extent. If there is a significant dislocation in financial markets, I believe we'll see watch prices soften. So much so as to eliminate premiums or have inventory readily available at ADs, probably not unless perhaps we enter into a major and protracted global recession in which case we will have bigger issues than Rolex availability and pricing to worry about.

[underpar]

Nobody knows when but every market corrects itself eventually.
The real estate bubble is stretched to the point of bursting. It can't be much longer but that could be months or years. Tick, tick, tick...

[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

Then the "discontinued speculative investors" will jump on board and we'll start this cycle all over again

To true.

Not even the Batman went down in value when the improvements were made on the new model, Or the Maxi case Subs.

The prettiest Daytona in the world will never trump the Daytona that got it all this started. Not just started for Rolex but the whole market changed due to the introduction of the ceramic Daytona.

[jdp12199]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I know many of your are probably going to be again another thread about valuation, market predictions, etc. However, will watches like the Daytona will really hit 100k and stay there for few years?

And the hulk which is now hitting 30k will it reach $50k or higher and sustain it?


I mean come on guys- is this our new reality and our hobby will no longer be sustainable or even fun? At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.


Please chime in?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you knew people were going to ask about why you are posting another thread about the watch market then why did you post it anyway?

In the past few months (like you mentioned) there have been several threads on the same topic / question.

Nobody knows the answer depite how many times the same question is asked....

Are you fishing for a particular answer that suits your point of view?

If not then, is there a reason why you think someone would have the "correct" answer to your thread in particular when no one has had the answer in the dozens of similar threads posted in the past few months?

[aczaja10]

Originally Posted by KWSub

Not so sure about that. The new ceramic Daytona has only helped increase the value of the previous 116520 and the Zenith 16520 references. Same thing with most other Rolex, Patek, and AP sports watches. I’m not making a prediction that this will stay the same, in perpetuity. But in this current market, none of the “hot” and “in demand” references have been negatively impacted by the release of a new, updated model.

This is a fair point. As much as we hate the current market, it’s been a blessing in many ways.

[Cdaddylutz]

Amen

[Solo118]

The bottom line is, people around the world are willing to pay grey pricing, and there is very little resistance, so it seems like weekly new high prices are tested and "sold".

We as consumers have created a monster, and it will be very hard to tame it. Too many people have too much money, and not too much patience.

[Andad]

I expect as more new models arrive the thirst will be diluted.

How long this will take is anyone's guess.

It will not happen soon.

[jdp12199]

Originally Posted by Andad

I expect as more new models arrive the thirst will be diluted.

How long this will take is anyone's guess.

It will not happen soon.

New models arrived last year and the year before and the prices still went up...

[JSCP]

If a thread is repetitive… just don’t read it, move , no comment.

Regardless who really knows? It goes up it goes down…and so on.

If you want to buy Rolex to make lots of $$$$, first you have to get them. Most VIPs don’t flip ever , they trade and get bored. They don’t flip to make money.

most popular models vintage or new are classics. It’s ok not to have the most recent. I have a nice collection and yet don’t have to have an RO-A-P or a VC overseas and all PP this or that…. Have a few nice ones enjoy. and the the ones you can’t get for any reason 5711 PP, or a Pepsi, just let it be. , enjoy that they exists and see them worm by someone else and great enjoy the visual.

[crispyness87]

Features of historic bubbles broadly include a function of: easy supply, pure speculation (i.e. the product has no real intrinsic value or doesn't really provide the owner much 'utility' except the prospect that a greater fool buys it later at a higher price), dodgy financial machinations (e.g. call/put options in the tulip bubble, or south sea company providing loans for others to buy company shares), and other obvious signs (e.g. an average joe owning 5-6 properties easily coming towards 2008. I don't see an average joe being able to afford 5-6 rolexes).

I'm sure the above is a generalization and people can poke holes at it. But the watch industry broadly has none/little of these indicators... Definitely still has legs.

Famous last words. How funny would it be if the value of our collections plummet in 6 months lol :P

[TimeAZ]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I mean come on guys- is this our new reality and our hobby will no longer be sustainable or even fun?

Too late for that.

[David007Kim]

Never,…it will NEVER settle. Rolex has been planning and planning to be very strategic about their Brand for years! They are becoming like the “Holy 3”, also ever since the evolution of Ceramic Bezels they’ve been “in demand”! Nowadays with young wealth and Instagram, the world of watches has changed. If your lucky enough to “afford one”,…not only get one from an AD,…your lucky! The term “afford”,…buy what you want and “whenever” you want and from who ever you want is the REAL FLEX!!! Rolex has always been about STATUS. Things have changed and you should accept it. Being able to wear and own a HOT MODEL is the REAL FLEX. Looking to buy one at retail,…AD’s are no longer designed to sell you one unless you have spent $100k plus. Most Professional Models will be well above $50k ina matter of years as distributions and allocations are at a standstill. Steel Daytona’s are now a part of history after what Paul Newman’s watch sold for at auction a few years back. Instagram and YouTube along with Young Wealth is now and the future. You will NEVER be able to get the HOT MODELS unless you spend over $100K, so go GREY to acquire what you want. I know many people that work at AD’s and it’ll NEVER HAPPEN for the average person. Only HEAVY HITTERS and Celebrities will get the “old AD Service”!,…go GREY because “yesterday’s prices are NOT today’s prices and it will NEVER be!!!

[KY..]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

I mean come on guys- is this our new reality and our hobby will no longer be sustainable or even fun? At this point with these prices, I can’t or no longer feel comfortable buying a watch 3-4 times retail.

I like several of the modern Rolexes and have a couple, but my collection stems back to the 60’s and up.
So I still enjoy hunting down vintage Rolex/Heuer/Hamilton/Zenith instead of slobbering over modern pieces I have to beg an AD for.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

There will always be a new and better. But will the market remain the same for the new references? Who knows!!!


I personally think that this is not sustainable for much longer - many folks here think it will be years for it to settle and they might be right. However, we are living in strange times - everything is overpriced because of inflation and supply chain issues.

I’m hopeful for things to return back to normal and we don’t have to deal with these crazy market


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I think the cheapest time to buy the Rolex of your dreams was yesterday. The next cheapest is today.

I see it steadily rising

[Token74]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

I think the cheapest time to buy the Rolex of your dreams was yesterday. The next cheapest is today.

I see it steadily rising

Very hard to argue with this for the near term.


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[bp1000]

As long as the YouTubers are around showing off their rollies, PPs and mills inside lambos surrounded by scantily clad woman, never.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by jdp12199

New models arrived last year and the year before and the prices still went up...

That means it will not happen soon?

[65cobra]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

Then the "discontinued speculative investors" will jump on board and we'll start this cycle all over again

Originally Posted by thenewrick

My theory is that new demand hasn’t been through a discontinuation cycle. They’ve only known the current references.

The old stuff have gone up due to rising tide effect.

When new Daytona drops and it’s fully updated with Stella dials and true panda Paul Newman dials and all new precious metal platona references etc it’ll definitely make the current generation stop in its tracks.

The Hulk is the only older reference that continued to be very popular through the next generation and that’s because they haven’t released a new Hulk yet.

Just my theory.

I just see people that dropped Grey prices on all the current hype seeing Rolex unveil the all new references with new colors and movements and updates cases and all the new media surrounding them and they’re gonna look at their 2015 reference they paid 4x retail for and hastily try to unload them and immediately buy the new version or give up on that hobby because they will realize there’s always going to be new and better. These new folks aren’t buying Pepsi and Daytona because they want to wear them forever and think they are future classics. It’s because it’s the right now best hype etc. as soon as it’s not the best right now hype it’s gonna get dropped like disco in the 80s.

The marathon folks will stick around and be happy to pick up a 1 generation old reference. Look at the folks picking up 5 digit references right now compared to how much discussion incoming and hype is around 2015-2021 current generation hype monsters. It’s probably 1 to 100.

Don’t think rolex will be worth zero. It’ll just quickly slow down and price decline over a year or two then we will see a back to normal slow upward price curve for high demand classics and slow downward curve for low demand references aka back to normal

I think there are more collectors that ever myself included. But these new folks are rushing into the hobby 100% and it’ll burn them out when the next generation of new comes in. That enthusiasm isn’t going to continue for a decade+.

Not so sure about that! Historically discontinuation and the succeeding replacement cycle actually boost the values of the outgoing generation. So what you are suggesting defies what has actually happened in the past.

Also this theory of the older models getting dropped like a disco in the 80’s when the new hype ones replace it also has not happened either. Rolex is a very conservative brand almost to a fault, they can be borderline boring at times since they stick to their original designs so closely over the course of decades. Rolex does not make fashion trendy in today out tomorrow designs, they are overall very timeless and when you look through the back catalogues very little of it has aged poorly.

Everything could change and you could be right since we can’t predict the future for sure, but past data disagrees.