What happened to the Nautilus market last week?

[jschmidtdmd]

I had dinner Friday with my main watch guy and he was telling me that in a matter of a week, the bids on pieces dropped SIGNIFICANTLY.

Does anyone have anymore specific info? Or is this just another instance of grey hoarding product, over paying for it, and not being able to move it?

[Fat_ninja]

Prices kind of started slowing down for weeks now. From what I was told the Chinese market has softened. I partly believe that is a function of the broader markets getting more freaked out over the trade wars.


That said my personal view is that this is a blip and will begin to move up again as things reaccellerate


Btw it’s not just the nautilus...the RM’s are seeing the same.

[jrs146]

I think it’s a combination of the market desperately searching for a ceiling, summer slowing sales, and just a short time period where a few sales get noticed.

I saw two 5712’s sell new for 87k and 84k. That’s a 3.5% difference. Considering how high they’ve shot up recently I’d hardly call it a significant drop.

In general however it seems the entire watch market has slowed down a bit. Will it continue to slow? I doubt significantly, but who knows?

[jschmidtdmd]

thanks for the insight guys!

It does sound similar to RM. Super high asks, and who know if they are truly getting met.

[Fat_ninja]

I do think the nautilus hold here

Roman sharf has a good you tube video around RM prices. He talked to watch box recently... you can google it.

Summer 2019


He should get more subscriber. Got good content. I’m too cheap to subscribe tho

[Jamie1111]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I do think the nautilus hold here

Roman sharf has a good you tube video around RM prices. He talked to watch box recently... you can google it.

Summer 2019


He should get more subscriber. Got good content. I’m too cheap to subscribe tho

He’s the only guy I watch on yt


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Jamie1111

He’s the only guy I watch on yt


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If you know any greys. They all sound the same. Stock broker for watches

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

If you know any greys. They all sound the same. Stock broker for watches

[RussW]

Patekaholic did an IG post on Nautilus prices last week. Worth a read if you haven’t seen it already.

[jschmidtdmd]

Originally Posted by RussW

Patekaholic did an IG post on Nautilus prices last week. Worth a read if you haven’t seen it already.

I did not- will check it out, thanks

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by RussW

Patekaholic did an IG post on Nautilus prices last week. Worth a read if you haven’t seen it already.

I missed it... must have ignored it cause he was trying to sell his new hats. Lol


I think the difference with nautilus vs RM
Is Nautilus has more heritage and It is starting to become more mainstream like the Daytona.

RM is still a rich guys watch

[RussW]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I missed it... must have ignored it cause he was trying to sell his new hats. Lol

Oh dear!

[Aquaman]

Originally Posted by RussW

Oh dear!

Oh deere

Surely

[Bearxj86]

Summertime sadness - just like wall street. Sell in May and go away.

I see some softness and stabilization for 1-2 months and then we'll see.

I see resistance at $65k and $70k for the 5711a, and I also see resistance at $50k for the 5164a.

Precious metal has potential to fall.

[psv]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Summertime sadness - just like wall street. Sell in May and go away.

I see some softness and stabilization for 1-2 months and then we'll see.

I see resistance at $65k and $70k for the 5711a, and I also see resistance at $50k for the 5164a.

Precious metal has potential to fall.

This. Then brace for larger sell-off, aka correction, followed by a lowering of interest rates because there is an election year coming.

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I had dinner Friday with my main watch guy and he was telling me that in a matter of a week, the bids on pieces dropped SIGNIFICANTLY.



Does anyone have anymore specific info? Or is this just another instance of grey hoarding product, over paying for it, and not being able to move it?

Lots of selling of Nautis to buy the 5270p.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

Lots of selling of Nautis to buy the 5270p.

I knew I wasn’t dreaming. Lol. :)


I really should focus on working before I can’t buy anything

[Aquaman]

From what I've read about it over the last week, the press seem to think it's down to the Hong Kong demonstrations

As richemont sales are down by an awful lot

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Aquaman

From what I've read about it over the last week, the press seem to think it's down to the Hong Kong demonstrations

As richemont sales are down by an awful lot

Tough to get through the crowds

[Aquaman]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Tough to get through the crowds

Totally


Maybe that's why the Swiss sent on the triads today

[RHIII]

Because people are realizing that they’re not worth 250% markup maybe??

The prices are absolutely ridiculous. And a $75k 5711 purchase should come with a mental health exam.


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[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Because people are realizing that they’re not worth 250% markup maybe??

The prices are absolutely ridiculous. And a $75k 5711 purchase should come with a mental health exam.


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Because of this....

[Jamie1111]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Because people are realizing that they’re not worth 250% markup maybe??

The prices are absolutely ridiculous. And a $75k 5711 purchase should come with a mental health exam.


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Hahaha, good point


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[Cabaiguan]

Have been eyeing Aquanauts for some time and just saw one close to $40k from a trusted seller. That may be more insane than a $75k 5711...not really sure.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by Cabaiguan

Have been eyeing Aquanauts for some time and just saw one close to $40k from a trusted seller. That may be more insane than a $75k 5711...not really sure.

I’ve been eyeing APs recently especially the 15202st. I guess no slow down for AP since these are going for 39-44k on grey market.

[Cabaiguan]

Originally Posted by Vipes

I’ve been eyeing APs recently especially the 15202st. I guess no slow down for AP since these are going for 39-44k on grey market.

15202 just as crazy. To think I got mine about 5yrs ago for under $20k.

[pam66]

hongkong protests seem also rather disruptive for the watch sales

[qrc36]

Originally Posted by pam66

hongkong protests seem also rather disruptive for the watch sales

Yup. Loads of inventory especially the AD on the Kowloon side (Tsim Sha Tsui). I visited my AD last week and we joked that we have never seen so many watches on display in the last 2 years.

Tourists from China aren't coming in to buy watches. Locals are fearing a plunge in the stock market (lots of rumors here that the US stock market is going to burst soon...)

But don't get your hopes up about getting a 5711 / 5712 / 5164 / 5167 as the distributor has the final say here, not the AD.

[Fat_ninja]

Tourists from China aren't coming in to buy watches. Locals are fearing a plunge in the stock market (lots of rumors here that the US stock market is going to burst soon...)
.

And what happens when it doesn’t. Prices spike

[GB-man]

Cracks me up reading the patekaholic comments how many people are confident prices will never fall and it’s just a new paradigm.

The speed at which the buyer pool for over retail Patek’s and Rolex will dry up in a broader financial pull back will be astounding.

People who think the greys will just hold the inventory are nuts. They make their cake being a good middleman not holding for appreciation. They will sell at market and buy at market eating the spread like always.