How likely is a price retreat?

[ChiefTingle]

I'm not a real serious collector but I did buy a preowned SubC some years ago. I came back to see what watches were available about 2 years ago and the Sub I have was being offered for almost twice what I paid for it. I even checked at a local AD to see what they would offer for it in trade and was quite surprised. I look now at the D-Blue DSSD and just watch as the price continues to climb. Is there any chance of the price of these and some of the other sought after watches to retreat from the values they are being sold at these days.

I want a DSSD!!!! Daytona's are out of range for me.

[geoffreyis]

Lol

[paxjedi]

Originally Posted by geoffreyis

Lol

This!




.

[Kyle3130]

Originally Posted by geoffreyis

Lol

Dude, you should tell your AD what you want and then patiently wait for the call like everyone else. Also, how is a Daytona “out of range” for you when it’s only $400USD more than the D-Blue DSSD?

[WatchesNBlondes]

No price retreat. At least for the time being.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by WatchesNBlondes

No price retreat. At least for the time being.

This

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ChiefTingle

How likely is a price retreat?

It is not.

Buy before prices go higher or look at other brands

[Marcjvr]

No-one knows

[CarlOver]

Originally Posted by ChiefTingle

Is there any chance of the price of these and some of the other sought after watches to retreat from the values they are being sold at these days.

Everything is possible. If anyone knew with certainty, they could make some aggressive decisions and truly come out on top.

[inadeje]

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

[waterking]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe. Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Well said. This is the new norm.

[JSCP]

Originally Posted by waterking

Well said. This is the new norm.

Agreed.

It won’t happen. It’s just like a Birkin/Kelly bag, the desirability and availability of best colors, etc it’s hard for even new successful people with income to get them.

So Rolex made it to that category of exclusivity.

In my opinion, Rolex in South America was already very desirable by affluent and not so affluent people in 1950-70’s . For reliability and great looks, variety of models, etc.

I still believe most people do like want a Rolex for their looks/quality/history. Others might add status and look I’m a VVIP.

I love that part of their marketing has been associated with accomplished artists, Nobel prize winners, athletes, presidents, etc. Sooner came from humble origins, some not, but all smart, unique personalities, that are the best in their fields…therefore the association we make of success and people with taste, talent and smart , we can be like them by having a Rolex.

Just enjoy your new single piece or your several, or get a reasonably priced vintage one that you like, you will. IEvery watch has a history m, so dream of a new history is great.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

You got the fever bad. Up up and away.

[Daytonaboy1977]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Well said and I have to agree too. I can't see this reverting anytime soon. The demands simply outweigh any attempt to supply a higher volume of watches to the market. Unless they open further manufacturing facilities etc but then then would need to train specialist technician etc. I work in recruitment within the engineering sector and the raw trainable manpower to increase volumes simply isn't there and it's a European problem. Throwing money at facilities simply won't help. I can't see any quick fix to this problem and therefore don't see a change in the current market conditions unless a drastic worldwide problem occurs.

[fwhawk]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Or we have a bubble like the Ferrari bubble of about 30 years ago, in which case prices suddenly fall.

Right now the "prevailing wisdom" is you had better buy now because you'll have to pay more next week. If prices falter, that assessment will reverse and the prevailing thought will be why would I buy now when the price will be lower next week. When buyers dry up, you'd be surprised how fast prices can drop..

In my view, there is no sustainable reason these mass produced watches (as nice as they are) should be going for several times their MSRP. The problem with bubbles though, is that you never know when they are going to burst.

This is just my opinion, but I rode the Ferrari bubble up...and then all the way back down so I've seen what can happen.

[Satykush]

Originally Posted by fwhawk

Or we have a bubble like the Ferrari bubble of about 30 years ago, in which case prices suddenly fall.

Right now the "prevailing wisdom" is you had better buy now because you'll have to pay more next week. If prices falter, that assessment will reverse and the prevailing thought will be why would I buy now when the price will be lower next week. When buyers dry up, you'd be surprised how fast prices can drop..

In my view, there is no sustainable reason these mass produced watches (as nice as they are) should be going for several times their MSRP. The problem with bubbles though, is that you never know when they are going to burst.

This is just my opinion, but I rode the Ferrari bubble up...and then all the way back down so I've seen what can happen.

Very good insight. My only submission is that the nouveau rich while lapping up any and every exotic model of Rolex will at some point stop. And they have no real love for watches or horology. And with other asset classes becoming as desirable, the current rise will inevitably slow down. Once the prices start to taper off, the crazy demand (from status buyers and not watch lovers) will drop. It’s going to happen in 2-3 years. In economic terms, while a luxury good, there are still high horology status oriented watches (and a very large number) that are still out there. Therefore substitutes do exist.


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[Uhtred59]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

Hope is a method

[moting]

There is a lot of speculation going on with rumors of discontinuation of some Rolex popular models at the upcoming Watch & Wonders. We may see some correction after that even like it happened last year.

[ChiefTingle]

When I brought my Sub C the seller said "this watch will always be worth at least $4500". I have enjoyed it for years now. There is an old saying "if I had known I would have got two". lol

[Henrimontgomery]

Originally Posted by ChiefTingle

When I brought my Sub C the seller said "this watch will always be worth at least $4500". I have enjoyed it for years now. There is an old saying "if I had known I would have got two". lol

I tried some Journe offerings years ago and thought “not for me”. Yet here we ar today and they have tripled in value lol.

[donas]

Not a chance. If you want it, find the best price you can and buy it. There are a couple of models I looked at a few years ago that I regret not buying. I'm not an "investment buyer", but I just can't justify spending spending that much on a watch now. I thought they were expensive before they doubled in price LOL.

[malba2366]

Very likely. No one can predict when. Buy what you want because you want to wear it end enjoy it. Buy grey if you need it now, or try to get it through an AD if you are patient. Ignore all the nonsense about watches being investments or hedges against inflation etc....they are neither.

[Jack T]

There’s a chance, for a variety of reasons not touched upon by one particularly verbose reply up above.
The question is, will it? And how long are you willing to give it?

[kieselguhr]

If Rolex prices on the preowned market retreat to MSRP, that would mean the economy (global) got mollywhoped, and getting a Rolex will be the last thing on your mind.

[Db7566]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

If Rolex prices on the preowned market retreat to MSRP, that would mean the economy (global) got mollywhoped, and getting a Rolex will be the last thing on your mind.

This. So yes it will happen. Hopefully not soon.


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[underpar]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

If Rolex prices on the preowned market retreat to MSRP, that would mean the economy (global) got mollywhoped, and getting a Rolex will be the last thing on your mind.

Yes sir.

[enjoythemusic]

Depends on changes within the geopolitical landscape and central banking schemes.

[Benzsiam]

How likely is a price retreat?

Nobody know, if you really love DSSD JC, just go to Rolex boutique/AD and talk to them, express your interest about this timepiece. This watch isn't super hot in demand, so you have some chance to get it at msrp from your boutique/AD with some wait time.

I think if you buy it at msrp and plan to keep it for long, this Rolex should retain the value that you pay for.

[tudk]

Demand is sky high with no increase in production
Therefore in my opinion the price will remain high
in the secondary market .

[HogwldFLTR]

I suspect in the post-apocalyptic zombie world watches will be going for much less but then again currency may be useless, too.