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26 July 2020, 06:52 PM | #31 |
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If the 5711 tanked in the secondary market to drop to retail or heading in that direction ... Patek, who I’m sure monitors forums and secondary grey market will just discontinue the 5711 and keep the mystique alive
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26 July 2020, 07:20 PM | #32 |
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It’s not like you accurately anticipated the meteoric price increase 17’-19’ either, so maybe get off that high horse. Some are simply pointing out that things change and that it’s generally not that easy to predict. Hence being cocksure about Nautilus being forever secure on the throne of hype is... misguided. History is full of once-hyped Patek that are all but forgotten nowadays. Remember when those 5100 Gondolos were the red hot dot-com bubble Nautilus equivalents?
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26 July 2020, 07:33 PM | #33 | |
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In the end all comes to demand and supply. Supply is artificially constrained but given PP track record I do not see that changing - Stern made it be known they do not want to end up like AP. Will demand continue to be there? I do not see social media craze going away, if anything people might move to other watches, but at the top of steel sport watches there is nothing else. |
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26 July 2020, 07:35 PM | #34 | |
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26 July 2020, 08:05 PM | #35 |
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1. don't try to be a though guy and curb your mouth mr. anonymous 2. I've been hearing this song time and time again. Same as the song about the Rolex Daytona. 30 years ago I refused to pay over list for a SS Daytona, listening to people telling me that prices would drop soon.... guess what, the never did. 3. I think that the whole discussion about the prices of these expensive toys is poisoning the hobby. Hell, even the mods on this forum agreed and closed threads like this for a while but they keep popping up. A watch is an expensive toy, not an investment. I have been frustrated with the unavailability of some models as well but hoping that the prices will drop and starting thread nr. N* will not change anything. Bookmark this discussion and all the other ones, come back in 6 months and let's do a retrospective. Much more interesting than this chill out dude |
26 July 2020, 08:43 PM | #36 |
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i have a 5711 and i used to think the 5167 was ugly as sin.
but after 7 years of wearing it, the 5167 is starting to look better and better than the nautilus to me and i'm seriously considering switching LOL |
27 July 2020, 12:07 AM | #37 |
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From what I hear the hot watch market is hotter than ever. The pullback some thought would happen was so short and not much at all. What happened is all that money that did not get spent on entertainment, travel, work attire and restaurant meals is going into luxury goods. The high end car, watch and house market is booming. Also, home renovations. Banks cannot keep up with loan apps. We were at a high line car dealer yesterday and they have had been best sales numbers in the last two months in their 30 year history. No one can get product whatever it is. People are not selling which is odd. This is probably because every YouTube video which all said not to sell into this "down" sellers market. Less used cars and watches coming for sale. New supply lines were mostly completed goods with the effects of the shutdowns to be felt shortly in supply disruptions. Its a great time to sell, but unless you can buy retail, I would wait on buying a watch. The long term economic effects of the shutdowns will not be felt for quite a while and they may be nothing or impactful. Have to wait and see if demand softens and people start liquidating their stuff. Definitely not happening at the moment and hopefully, will not happen.
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27 July 2020, 01:41 AM | #38 | |
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This makes sense. I wouldn’t have expected it hard to buy a car now. But my watches cost more than my cars. LOL That being said, I was just discussing with my buddy how the economics for buying luxury goods in these regimes 30K+ is totally different than a $5-10k watch. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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27 July 2020, 02:03 AM | #39 |
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I think the market will soften - just like it did back in 2008 - but its not dropping back to retail - there are a lot of smart people who have the capital to buy these watches at a premium - but now in 2020 there are good opportunities elsewhere on how to deploy $65K or more to get a better return - so I can see a lot of those people not buying the watch and investing it elsewhere and waiting on the watches. That will soften demand a little in my mind.
My father was about to pull the trigger on a 5990 recently - and decided it was better to invest in growing his business because there was an opportunity to buy the building that we were renting space in - so he used the 5990 cash to just put the down payment on the building as these types of scenarios are going to happen a lot as people who have over leveraged their money are hit with the reality of what COVID will really mean to the economy in the US. I personally see a lot of good real estate deals coming in the fall when people who have over leveraged their buildings start to have too many people stop paying rent and they can't cover their costs. In summary - will the Nautilus crash - no - but will the market soften - I think so as smart money moves its cash into long term investments - I see a new watch bubble starting in 24 months when those people reenter the watch market. |
27 July 2020, 02:14 AM | #40 |
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Who’s going to be first to sell their nautilus for 25?
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27 July 2020, 02:34 AM | #41 | |
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27 July 2020, 02:40 AM | #42 |
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I think the price of 60-70k will hold up for a long time.
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27 July 2020, 03:03 AM | #43 | |
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27 July 2020, 03:25 AM | #44 | |
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At last. Someone with some sense. I don’t think they’ll be at Retail for some time but Nautilus and Aquanaut are the biggest load of BS hype I can think of in the watch market. I speak as an owner. |
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27 July 2020, 03:26 AM | #45 | |
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27 July 2020, 04:13 AM | #46 | ||
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I did an investigation on the OP.... All I could say is this...... OP is trolling us.....lol.....
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27 July 2020, 04:44 AM | #47 | |
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27 July 2020, 05:26 AM | #48 |
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Stay tuned, US election coming up
Anything is possible.
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27 July 2020, 05:31 AM | #49 | |
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Regarding the Nautilus - I love it (at least the 5711 and 5712), I would own one if I could source one at rrp, but if you put them up against the Odysseus and Linesport side-by-side, with their hefty bezels and lumpy bracelets, they begin to look a little old-fashioned (if still svelte and lovely). And that’s before you start comparing movements, finishing etc... |
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27 July 2020, 07:00 AM | #50 |
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I have to say I'm very curious to see what the next big thing in watches will be to displace this, the Nautilus' rush to buy was quite a shocker in 16 when it happened right after the Brexit trigger, but that is what all the currency arbitragers went wildly for, along with the hot Rolex SS, it was a completely unexpected modern hypebeast for such a traditional old boy, as the above post also alludes to.
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27 July 2020, 07:25 AM | #51 | |
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27 July 2020, 11:17 AM | #52 |
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There's been a meteoric rise in broader watch prices over the past few years that is unsustainable, in my opinion. If the global economy does stagnate as some seem to think it will/should, my best guess is that prices revert to 30-50% above retail for the most popular items (Nautilus, Daytona) and 0-20% for the tier of slightly less popular models (remaining SS Rolexes for example). That being said, this is purely speculative and I could very well be completely wrong.
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27 July 2020, 11:44 AM | #53 |
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I’ll die on this hill. The nautilus will be available at retail again.
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27 July 2020, 05:29 PM | #54 |
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This watch doesn’t deserve the hype that’s around not even close, and for all of you who think Patek sports will always be as popular think again, trends change all the time, and btw if I was looking for a watch for around 60-70k I’d be looking at something like urwerk or mb&f these watches offer so much more than a 3 hander Patek with a date. And are actually rare.
Btw there is more than 500 5711’s for sale on chrono24 and you guys call it rare. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
27 July 2020, 10:36 PM | #55 |
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The 5711 has been one of the most iconic and prestigious references any watch manufacturer will produce. It has it’s own legacy... cannot compare this watch to any other. If you want a Urwerk or MB&F then by all means go for it. Rarity is based on supply/demand. You can have a watch that is ultra rare by Urwerk producing only 100 per year BUT if nobody wants one...well, is it rare among say 100 or even 1000 people who may want one?? 1 out of 10...Not really. 5711 on the other hand might be 1 in 50 odds of getting one at msrp.
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27 July 2020, 10:39 PM | #56 |
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27 July 2020, 10:46 PM | #57 | |
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27 July 2020, 10:58 PM | #58 | |
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Let’s say hypothetically a 5711/12 becomes easily attainable at retail 10 years from now? Is that really relevant to someone who wants one now ? That’s a long time of not being to enjoy a watch. So what “cost” per year to enjoy it sooner is it worth ? Well, that will be a diff number for everyone. Don’t get me wrong, I would never pay market price now- but someone whose salary is quadruple mine? Maybe it’s worth it to them. (Full disclosure, I got my 5712 in 2019 at retail from an AD....and IMO it is worth the hype, price aside). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro |
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27 July 2020, 11:41 PM | #59 |
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Everything falls out of fashion eventually... think about the Rolex Milgauss, Franck Muller, Hublot, heck, even mechanical watches as a whole at one point... We have only been in this bubble for about 4 years or so. Ten years ago, you’d have got a not insignificant discount on these watches. A lot can happen over the next ten years. The thing is though, by the time prices normalize, many of you won’t want one anymore either...
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27 July 2020, 11:51 PM | #60 | |
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Kool-aid y’all. |
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