ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
3 October 2019, 04:33 AM | #31 | ||
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
Quote:
Quote:
No risk no reward |
||
3 October 2019, 04:37 AM | #32 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
|
3 October 2019, 05:14 AM | #33 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Montana
Posts: 3,223
|
By the way, obviously prices will soften. Look at the chart. That's a classic irrational exuberance situation.
I'd expect it to adjust down, then up, then down, until it settles a bit. Unfortunately, because supply is artificially controlled, it won't ever match any proper pattern. But the overall sentiment in the general buying public does feel like irrational exuberance to me. |
3 October 2019, 06:01 AM | #34 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 3970
Posts: 3,813
|
I only have one thing to say:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo-KmOd3i7s Don't worry, its suitable for work. |
3 October 2019, 06:03 AM | #35 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2014
Real Name: John
Location: La Jolla, CA
Watch: Platona
Posts: 12,194
|
|
3 October 2019, 06:04 AM | #36 |
Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: uk
Posts: 435
|
About time, but i'm sure it will come back stronger than ever
|
3 October 2019, 06:06 AM | #37 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
|
3 October 2019, 06:08 AM | #38 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
|
3 October 2019, 06:10 AM | #39 |
Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: uk
Posts: 435
|
|
3 October 2019, 06:11 AM | #40 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
|
3 October 2019, 06:31 AM | #41 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Montana
Posts: 3,223
|
Quote:
And agreed with the other comment that it's really just the Blue 5711/1A-010. It was what propped everything else up, but I genuinely believe it was the only one that was truly in serious demand. People just ended up going to the others, driving up their prices, because they weren't patient enough to wait for a 5711/1A-010 to show up at their AD (years) or at their favorite Grey dealer (months ~> a year). And then when this happened to all the Nautiluses, the Aquanaut got dragged into it too. It's all unnatural. I don't even see anyone wearing those watches that they buy at absurd premiums. And then when I see silly videos like the "investment watches" video by Kevin O'Leary, I shake my head and remember that I was once taught that you identify a bubble when your dentist is giving you advice to invest in a specific security/product/market. Sounds about right. :) |
|
3 October 2019, 06:43 AM | #42 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Real Name: Bill
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,735
|
The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).
|
3 October 2019, 07:16 AM | #43 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: US
Posts: 59
|
|
3 October 2019, 07:22 AM | #44 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Montana
Posts: 3,223
|
Quote:
Kevin O'Leary is truly the dentist in this scenario. Wow. |
|
3 October 2019, 08:35 AM | #45 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
|
3 October 2019, 09:41 AM | #46 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
|
3 October 2019, 06:23 PM | #47 | |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: another planet
Posts: 608
|
Quote:
If he didn’t realize he was the wake up call that’s only because his eyes were on the prize, not thinking about the nautical safety course he missed while he was shooting his youtube video. |
|
3 October 2019, 06:27 PM | #48 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: another planet
Posts: 608
|
|
3 October 2019, 07:07 PM | #49 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
|
3 October 2019, 08:17 PM | #50 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2017
Location: cambridge
Posts: 2,268
|
agreed! return to status quo may occur very long term, 5 years or so. not short term. one must be in denial of economic realities to believe a fast recovery of the luxury market. china bad, europe bad, US starting to go bad, mid east in turmoil, what are you guys hoping for? 100K for 5711A? lol......
|
3 October 2019, 08:36 PM | #51 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
Quote:
Watches are not a sodding asset class for the reasonably wealthy. They’re trinkets. Nothing more. Time will tell. (Though I disagree in one respect: with the world drowning in liquidity, and central banks pumping in even more, risk assets - each and every one - aren't going anywhere. The world economy's been f-ed for ages, even before all these 'new' headwinds, but that won't change the fact that every Tom Dick and (corporate) Harry can leverage themselves up to the wazoo - banks are being charged to hold deposits, so they want to get rid of them fast - and everyone is desperately searching for somewhere to park their cash. It'll all end in tears, just not yet.) |
|
3 October 2019, 08:49 PM | #52 | |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
Quote:
|
|
3 October 2019, 08:50 PM | #53 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
|
3 October 2019, 08:51 PM | #54 | |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
Quote:
|
|
3 October 2019, 08:54 PM | #55 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
Quote:
So we're on different sides of the gamble. I'm betting on Japan - a long slow deflationary slide... ... Eventually. :) |
|
3 October 2019, 09:35 PM | #56 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: UK
Posts: 4,195
|
|
3 October 2019, 09:41 PM | #57 | |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
|
Quote:
The upside in inflation comes when things turn up a little and then u realize there’s too much gasoline in the system. |
|
3 October 2019, 09:43 PM | #58 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
Apart from a few notable exceptions (the wonderful UK Journe retailer William and Son is of particular note), buying a watch is as pleasurable as purchasing a used car.
I refuse to pay the “market prices” of current hot models, but I find the old London greys substantially more pleasant and straightforward environments than ADs and boutiques. |
3 October 2019, 09:49 PM | #59 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: UK
Posts: 4,195
|
Quote:
|
|
3 October 2019, 09:50 PM | #60 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Here and there...
Posts: 1,861
|
Quote:
It’s an open question as to how serviceable these mark-to-market loans are with even slight rate increases, and at some point the music’s gonna stop and an equilibrium which doesn’t crash the system but doesn’t further inflate the assets will have to be found. Exactly like Japan in the early 90s. We saw last year how jittery the whole global system is to even a few fractions of a percentage rise in rates. The higher it gets, the nastier it’ll get too. |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.