the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

I’d like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Can’t really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a year’s worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by 77T

The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

I’d like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Can’t really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a year’s worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


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Agree with the exception of MERS, mortality was in the 30% range. That was a dangerous one.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Agree with the exception of MERS, mortality was in the 30% range. That was a dangerous one.

I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific.

I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 77T

I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific.

I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%.


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Expertise in helicoptering and virology...thanks for your insights in the current events...

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Koolpep

Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

Actually it’s 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus you’ll get the same data. It’s not a secret

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Actually it’s 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus you’ll get the same data. It’s not a secret

Credible source....?
WHO and CDC say nothing of that sort...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Actually it’s 9-days now. Let me find source. If you simply Google search coronavirus you’ll get the same data. It’s not a secret

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html

CDC is political.



Coronaviruses can persist on inanimate surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days, according to a study published Feb. 6 in the Journal of Hospital Infection.

Researchers analyzed 22 studies on coronaviruses, including literature on SARS and MERS. An analysis revealed that the viruses normally survive on surfaces between four and five days, but can remain infectious for up to nine days. Low temperatures and high air humidity increase the lifespan.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...udy-finds.html

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

CDC is political.

I agree wholeheartedly.

Though I don't pretend to know how long a virus remains infectious at a given temperature on a given surface.

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

CDC is political.







Coronaviruses can persist on inanimate surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days, according to a study published Feb. 6 in the Journal of Hospital Infection.



Researchers analyzed 22 studies on coronaviruses, including literature on SARS and MERS. An analysis revealed that the viruses normally survive on surfaces between four and five days, but can remain infectious for up to nine days. Low temperatures and high air humidity increase the lifespan.



https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...udy-finds.html

Damn.

Thank you! That’s what I was looking for.

Crucial to know! Which means many more avenues the virus can spread via. Terrible news.

[greggsiam]

I live in Bangkok, and it's really not a big deal. I don't even wear a mask and even the WHO says there is no reason to.

In January we had 30,000 people arrive from China, of that there were 6,000 directly from Wuhan. Even with those numbers, there are 32 cases, non of which were fatal.

The media and people have blown it way out of proportion outside of China. It has like a 2% fatality rating. Most of the cases here are treated, the people get better and are released. I think there is too much hype centered around it being a new virus and the potential that carries, but the reality is different.

However, the amount of racism that has stemmed from it is sad to see. I have seen people make racist statements like banning all Chinese, which I typically call them out on as being racist and ignorant.

In China, that is a different story. We will never know the actual truth. I'm sure it is difficult there, but I still doubt it will gain any more traction than it has already.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by greggsiam

I live in Bangkok, and it's really not a big deal. I don't even wear a mask and even the WHO says there is no reason to.

In January we had 30,000 people arrive from China, of that there were 6,000 directly from Wuhan. Even with those numbers, there are 32 cases, non of which were fatal.

The media and people have blown it way out of proportion outside of China. It has like a 2% fatality rating. Most of the cases here are treated, the people get better and are released. I think there is too much hype centered around it being a new virus and the potential that carries, but the reality is different.

However, the amount of racism that has stemmed from it is sad to see. I have seen people make racist statements like banning all Chinese, which I typically call them out on as being racist and ignorant.

In China, that is a different story. We will never know the actual truth. I'm sure it is difficult there, but I still doubt it will gain any more traction than it has already.

I’m not sure it’s blown out of proportion. Sorry to see the racism tho.

I mean it’s literally halting The Chinese economy. Given port closures, city closures... if it was not a concern and a run of the mill flu or cold. These measures would not be this drastic. If they didn’t make this a big deal it would be a lot worse than it is now. Contagiousness of the disease is a pretty big issue given they don’t actually have a vaccine. Comparisons to the flu are kind of silly in my mind as one is a known and treatable disease, while the other is aggressively expanding.

They are currently treating it with an AIDS cocktail similar to SARS.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by greggsiam

I live in Bangkok, and it's really not a big deal. I don't even wear a mask and even the WHO says there is no reason to.

In January we had 30,000 people arrive from China, of that there were 6,000 directly from Wuhan. Even with those numbers, there are 32 cases, non of which were fatal.

The media and people have blown it way out of proportion outside of China. It has like a 2% fatality rating. Most of the cases here are treated, the people get better and are released. I think there is too much hype centered around it being a new virus and the potential that carries, but the reality is different.

However, the amount of racism that has stemmed from it is sad to see. I have seen people make racist statements like banning all Chinese, which I typically call them out on as being racist and ignorant.

In China, that is a different story. We will never know the actual truth. I'm sure it is difficult there, but I still doubt it will gain any more traction than it has already.

2% fatality is pretty high