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3 February 2020, 03:17 PM | #91 |
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This is from the New York Times this morning. It didn’t get a lot of traction, for well, you know why. It’s all very real.
Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts. “It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...china.amp.html
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3 February 2020, 04:23 PM | #92 |
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After reading that NYT article I was surprised they think the most vulnerable target is Africa. But when they said over 1 million expat Chinese work there in mining, drilling and engineering, it made sense.
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3 February 2020, 05:07 PM | #93 |
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I am concerned about India. Almost the population of China, with only 1/3 of the land and poorer infrastructure and public health facilities.
Even though 70% of population is rural, the others are crammed together with insufficient support. Seems like a nightmare in the waiting. |
3 February 2020, 08:28 PM | #94 | |
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3 February 2020, 08:43 PM | #95 |
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Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.
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3 February 2020, 08:55 PM | #96 |
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3 February 2020, 09:08 PM | #97 |
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Personally, what's worrying me is the fact that seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. Right now Wuhan virus' mortality rate is around 2-3%. That difference, together with it spreading like wildfire, is huge.
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3 February 2020, 10:16 PM | #98 | |
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4 February 2020, 12:58 AM | #99 |
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Too many unknowns. What is true mortality rate? Infection rate? Reinfection rate?
A lot of figures floating out there right now. But I suspect that no one really knows yet.
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4 February 2020, 02:09 AM | #100 | |
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4 February 2020, 04:11 AM | #101 |
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The factory of the world has been brought offline. It's really unprecedented. Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, all empty streets, even after the Chinese holidays. We're running on fumes here.
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4 February 2020, 11:42 PM | #102 |
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The Chinese government will never release the actual figures and this is understandable from an economic and public order point of view. It is therefore necessary to multiply all the official Chinese data .. this multiple remains unknown ... maybe 10? or 15?
This crisis is for me also unprecedented and it follows the trajectory of a great pandemic that we could have on a simulator with an imminent slowdown before an exponential rise. We must salute China's efforts and honor it by avoid panicking, but we must also point the finger at the amateurism of our US/EU governments |
4 February 2020, 11:53 PM | #103 | |
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4 February 2020, 11:59 PM | #104 |
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5 February 2020, 12:06 AM | #105 |
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Still need to consider the mortality rate is 2-3x influenza. So if the same amount of people contract this, the mortality numbers will swell beyond influenza fatalities. Most of these would likely be in China and lesser developed countries.
Still too early to determine if there is panic or not. This thing needs to peak out before that assessment can accurately be made. |
5 February 2020, 12:06 AM | #106 |
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Check the chart, look at the facts. IMHO China is playing catch up and is far more embarrassed than scared.
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5 February 2020, 12:14 AM | #107 |
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We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.
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5 February 2020, 01:34 AM | #108 |
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Working for a company with a main office in China, some of the corporate comms make it sound pretty serious, even if the gov over there is suppressing what comes out
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5 February 2020, 02:39 AM | #109 | |
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The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source. I’d like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths. We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases. Can’t really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time When we have a year’s worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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5 February 2020, 06:29 AM | #110 | |
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5 February 2020, 07:57 AM | #111 | |
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I was saying Novel CV mortality would be closer to flu than either SARS or MERS. SARS was about 10% untreated and MERS was 30%. I agree both of those were horrific. I expect Novel will eventually be something under 1%. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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5 February 2020, 09:15 AM | #112 |
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Expertise in helicoptering and virology...thanks for your insights in the current events...
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6 February 2020, 01:45 AM | #113 | |
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Japan has the highest infestation of confirmed cases outside of China. On an average weekend I will see 100-200 Chinese tourists at my local Starbucks and adjoining park. That is just in my 30 minutes there. They are bused there by tour buses. The baristas and I have joked in the past that you don't hear Japanese being spoken there. None last weekend. |
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6 February 2020, 01:12 PM | #114 |
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There's always influenza related deaths at any single time. Usually the elderly or the weak. If concomittant infection with coronavirus, then maybe more dangerous.
And unless my mathematics fails me, the mortality rate of coronavirus' 2.5% is higher than the 0.2% of influenza, assuming all the coronavirus mortality rate was reported accurately of course. It should be higher if I were to make a guess. |
8 February 2020, 05:57 PM | #115 |
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Things that make you go, hmmm!?
The patients hospitalized with 2019-nCoV pneumonia experienced a range of symptoms, researchers report. All but two had a fever, 70 percent felt fatigued, 60 percent had a dry cough, 35 percent experienced muscle pain and 31 percent found it difficult to breathe. Smaller numbers of patients described headaches, dizziness, nausea, diarrhea, vomiting and abdominal pain. Ten percent of patients had diarrhea and nausea a day or two before developing fever and shortness of breath. With a low 2% mortality rate, odds of the whistleblower dying, coincidental? Everyone being interviewed has lost a loved a family member. Things that make you go, hmmm!?
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8 February 2020, 06:51 PM | #116 | |
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread
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Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know. CDC says: It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days. |
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8 February 2020, 07:21 PM | #117 | |
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8 February 2020, 07:34 PM | #118 |
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9 February 2020, 12:49 AM | #119 | ||
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9 February 2020, 07:22 AM | #120 | |
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Coronaviruses can persist on inanimate surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days, according to a study published Feb. 6 in the Journal of Hospital Infection. Researchers analyzed 22 studies on coronaviruses, including literature on SARS and MERS. An analysis revealed that the viruses normally survive on surfaces between four and five days, but can remain infectious for up to nine days. Low temperatures and high air humidity increase the lifespan. https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...udy-finds.html
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