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Old 29 March 2020, 12:17 PM   #91
thomaspp
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Originally Posted by zahain View Post
i've seen a few dealers at 135-140k us for a 5740 but not retail.. I think a platinum variant with a light ice blue dial would be cool


Quote:
Originally Posted by kronomentro View Post
Sorry I wasnt aware-you are saying the 5740 which is at the top of prior threads "Lack of Availability Rankings" is now selling at retail price?!?



If this is true, considering where we are, then what would this say about the 5711/1R and the steel models even those that are discontinued?


Try selling one to a grey dealer and you will see for yourself... the msrp is way too high. Same with 5131p.


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Old 29 March 2020, 12:21 PM   #92
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I still kick myself for turning down a 5712/1A for $29k back in 2015 (Brand new from AD).
I hear you. I passed on two aquanauts $17&22k (1 rubber and one on bracelet) at retail from AD IN 2017. Passed on an AP 15202 at retail $22k from AD IN 2015.

I was never able to even see a 5711 at an AD since beginning my hunt for a white 5711 in 2014. I got close with an AD (or so he said) before they were discontinued.

Now my chances for a BNIB white 5711 at retail are done for.

If the dealer I know called with a blue 5711 at retail I don’t now if I’d buy it with what’s going on in the world. There is still a lot of uncertainty in front of us.
No one is accurately estimating when the corona virus pandemic will end. And if it’s going to end poorly, the people who know aren’t saying it publicly.
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Old 29 March 2020, 12:21 PM   #93
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With all do respect the folks who seem shocked don’t seem to have been in this hobby for 10 plus years or having seen 5711s trade for $23k and 5980 1/a trade for $35k...


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Old 29 March 2020, 12:28 PM   #94
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With all do respect the folks who seem shocked don’t seem to have been in this hobby for 10 plus years or having seen 5711s trade for $23k and 5980 1/a trade for $35k...


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Exactly.

The mother of all buying opportunities will be upon us soon enough.
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Old 29 March 2020, 01:30 PM   #95
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Buyer sentiment plays a sizable role in the urge to buy that’s for sure. Right now, I’m not really excited to wear a nice watch being in lockdown for nearly two weeks and counting.

It’s anyone’s guess how we’d feel once we go outside facing a new normal.
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Old 29 March 2020, 02:21 PM   #96
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Have cash on hand and ready when the market really drops.
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Old 29 March 2020, 03:02 PM   #97
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Due to the relatively quick recovery of asset prices from 2009 lows, it appears to me that many people believe that quick recovery is inevitable. It would need to be bad for many years before people would start dumping 5711 - to cause people to believe that “this time it’s really different” . It would also be interesting know how many owners are passionate about watches or just want to own the “it” watches - highly passionate owners will sell other things first since a 5711 is irreplaceable in many ways.
How is the 5711 "irreplaceable"? There are hundreds for sale online.
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Old 29 March 2020, 05:08 PM   #98
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Man... I mean, it's fifty. Thousand. Dollars. You know?

Lot of HH at that level. How much do YOU want it?
Is it fifty. Thousand. Dollars. or fifty. Thousand. Euros? The OP is from Berlin. Just curious.
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Old 29 March 2020, 05:36 PM   #99
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I sincerely hope everyone here can buy the 5711 at MSRP now, or even better, at a discount.
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Old 29 March 2020, 05:44 PM   #100
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Is it fifty. Thousand. Dollars. or fifty. Thousand. Euros? The OP is from Berlin. Just curious.
50k USD (45k Euros) quoted 2 days ago.
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Old 29 March 2020, 07:33 PM   #101
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I sincerely hope everyone here can buy the 5711 at MSRP now, or even better, at a discount.
I put in a few emails to sellers on Chrono (5711/2). No dice yet sadly.
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Old 29 March 2020, 10:03 PM   #102
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50k USD (45k Euros) quoted 2 days ago.
For a full set in excellent condition, unpolished, that seems like a good deal. It's been running around $65-75K for the last year, at least, so you're talking 25-33% off of that. It could still get cheaper but who knows.
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Old 30 March 2020, 12:41 AM   #103
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I dont look at my watches as investment per se but like many of you I certainly dont like taking a bath if it can be avoided.

A lot of folks spent liberally at ADs on jewelry, bundled watches that they prob dont love, etc all to move up the wait list to then purchase at MSRP. This along with the wait time and opportunity cost figure into your purchase price.

We would all seem to all agree that pre COVID that Nautis were "overpriced"but yet what is a reasonable valuation? Its so hard to determine, right? which is why so many people post on these forums for advice when a dealers posts a for sale. (This is how this thread started of course).

Im inclined to suggest 10-15% over MSRP for a (near) mint B&P for any Nauti on bracelet. Would you all agree or am I way off?
You are saying you would expect to purchase a 5711 for $32,500 USD - ha! Never happen - I would buy ALL available for that. What isn’t being recognized on this thread much is that there are plenty of collectors and watch connoisseurs with very deep pockets. An Ad friend tells me he sells more inventory in tough times than good - strange to me but he says is true. Me thinks , although this is a very difficult time in our great country, it WILL pass by God’s Grace. Good though to watch the market but to think we are going to see desirable pieces 15% over MSRP is not realistic in my opinion. :-))
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Old 30 March 2020, 12:49 AM   #104
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Lol.. soon soon


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Old 30 March 2020, 01:01 AM   #105
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Lol.. soon soon


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Is this a current photo?
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Old 30 March 2020, 01:03 AM   #106
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Yea... Gold pieces... Steel still "hidden" in the safe
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Old 30 March 2020, 01:06 AM   #107
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I don’t think you and many in your “great country” truly appreciate the magnitude not just of this crisis, but the consequences that are waiting in its wake.
As much as I would like james272's vision of this to be correct, I believe it more likely that your's will be. How long will it be before sellers who need to raise capital give up and start hitting the bids before things get worse?
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Old 30 March 2020, 01:15 AM   #108
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As much as I would like james272's vision of this to be correct, I believe it more likely that your's will be. How long will it be before sellers who need to raise capital give up and start hitting the bids before things get worse?
We all wait and see.

In reference to the previous post everyone now would say they will buy all 5711 at $32k, but if they go that far how many will actually go through with it?
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Old 30 March 2020, 01:28 AM   #109
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Is this a current photo?


Yes


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Old 30 March 2020, 01:36 AM   #110
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I don’t think you and many in your “great country” truly appreciate the magnitude not just of this crisis, but the consequences that are waiting in its wake.
Maybe, time will tell , seems to be some resentment on your part - sorry for that
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Old 30 March 2020, 01:56 AM   #111
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5740 is at retail...


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Wow.
The hype is ending.

Half the people on this Patek forum are about to disappear, never to return again.
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Old 30 March 2020, 01:58 AM   #112
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Prices are declining. You don't need to listen to me. You can go to the FOR SALE section of this forum and see how sellers are either reducing their prices multiple times or are "bumping" their own threads so many times with no end in sight.

Incidentally, each "bump" and price reduction give me enormous pleasure. These dealers' blatant greed and arrogance in the past few years need to stop. It's about damn time.
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Old 30 March 2020, 02:04 AM   #113
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Im into the idea of gauging the market by an alternative strategy.

Has anyone gotten a price quote on selling a bracelet Nauti to a dealer? That may tell us all we need to know..
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Old 30 March 2020, 02:09 AM   #114
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Prices are declining. You don't need to listen to me. You can go to the FOR SALE section of this forum and see how sellers are either reducing their prices multiple times or are "bumping" their own threads so many times with no end in sight.

Incidentally, each "bump" and price reduction give me enormous pleasure. These dealers' blatant greed and arrogance in the past few years need to stop. It's about damn time.

What about the blatant greed of the person that acquires these popular watches, only to flip them? That’s a significant part of this - How do you think these dealers get their inventory?

Or, the collector that takes advantage of the market to sell one watch to get into another?

Many people benefit from the secondary market. I don’t think it’s fair to pin all the vitriol on the dealers. That said, I’m enjoying it simply because I’d love to see some sanity restored to the market.
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Old 30 March 2020, 02:28 AM   #115
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I have to agree with this...

So much hype these days. Good for the owners that capitalized. I used to trade SS 5980 at 34-37 for years and sat on SS 5711 for months. So hard to pay over retail but that's just me.
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Old 30 March 2020, 02:36 AM   #116
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5740 is at retail...


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where can find at retail price please?
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Old 30 March 2020, 03:40 AM   #117
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Due to the relatively quick recovery of asset prices from 2009 lows, it appears to me that many people believe that quick recovery is inevitable. It would need to be bad for many years before people would start dumping 5711 - to cause people to believe that “this time it’s really different” . It would also be interesting know how many owners are passionate about watches or just want to own the “it” watches - highly passionate owners will sell other things first since a 5711 is irreplaceable in many ways.
I agree that time will reveal who are the real watch collectors and who have entered the market because of the hype and FOMO and possibly to make a quick buck on a flip.

True collectors will keep their collection if they are in it for the love of these watches, unless their personal finances tank quickly.

However if the economy stays down for a while, eventually resellers will need to sell before they lose more money on their existing inventory. Also you have to remember, during the Great Recession of the late 2000s, many ADs went under. It depends on how much reserve they have. How long can they withstand the depressed market for "luxury goods"? Perhaps China will recover more quickly and start buying up everything. Germany is aware of this possibility and trying to pass a law preventing majority foreign ownership of many of their large corporations.
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Old 30 March 2020, 03:41 AM   #118
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I have never sold a watch I owned.

Dont plan to start.
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Old 30 March 2020, 04:14 AM   #119
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i honestly have not seen any $50K 5711 and definitely nothing below $63K if new/unworn.
at $50K it is a good deal. i would do it if i have the means, and if i don't have the means, i honestly would not care about its price anyway.
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Old 30 March 2020, 05:25 AM   #120
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Small anecdote - I was offered a 2017 5990/1A for 64K last week. The dealer without asking has dropped it to 60K within a few days. He also offered me a 5164R at MSRP. The bubble on these historically "Tier 2" pieces (in terms of desirability) has burst.
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