Grey prices

[173rdabn]

Note to all gray dealers: Send me a free Daytona and I'll post any damn thing you want, I promise.

[2000-NJDEVILS]

Whether prices get soft or not, CAVEAT EMPTOR!!
Way Too many dishonest (fraudulent) sales practices with Gray Mkt folks....

[Webster2281]

What about PM? I have yet to see the YG subc decline.


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[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Lol what are all these threads being made about no drops in prices when they clearly have - are you all undercover greys or being paid by them or something? Prices are clearly dropping for all the hot models in the last month

BLNR: $15K-->$12K
Pepsi: $17K-->$14K
Daytona: $25K-->$19K
Hulk: $16K-->$13.5K

Don't say things like that here, your thread will get deleted or worse! ;)

The feverish amount of gaslighting ongoing is insane. Wishful thinking is a powerful drug right now

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by RHIII

These threads are exhausting. All depends on the reference. The ‘hot’ hard to get models will plateau well above retail period. Some more “sought after” references will become more available let’s say....BLNRs, LVcs....etc.

Those wishful thinkers - or as I would say hope for grey dealers to be ‘forced’ to truly lower prices to where things were, say 2 years ago will remain disappointed, and still unable to try to capitalize off of a terrible time...and keep this ridiculous threads going.

If you think you’ll see Daytonas and BLROs for retail...think is all you’ll accomplish...

Don’t hold your breath waiting for “fire sales”.

Period.

Agree, we went from "which Rolex will appreciate the most" to this exhaustive nonsense, and yet these threads are endless. Seems like a new one every hour.

[JoseR]

One of the grey I got my Air King from are holding on the prices. Not going down even on Rolex the prices are above MSRP on some models. I asked about a Omega Seamaster AT on leather and asked for a 10% discount and was told the price was firm because if they gave me the discount it would cut into their profit. Got my AK from them on MSRP last April but for now they're holding firm on the prices. I told them if the price drops to let me know. I'll just wait it out for a few months to see if it drops. The one thing I like at this grey is that you get full set from AD with original factory warranty. I've seen the Omega AT on chrono24 for about 400 less but no original papers only their own warranty for a few years. I like the buy new with original papers. Sit and wait....

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by RHIII

These threads are exhausting. All depends on the reference. The ‘hot’ hard to get models will plateau well above retail period. Some more “sought after” references will become more available let’s say....BLNRs, LVcs....etc.

Those wishful thinkers - or as I would say hope for grey dealers to be ‘forced’ to truly lower prices to where things were, say 2 years ago will remain disappointed, and still unable to try to capitalize off of a terrible time...and keep this ridiculous threads going.

If you think you’ll see Daytonas and BLROs for retail...think is all you’ll accomplish...

Don’t hold your breath waiting for “fire sales”.

Period.

I don't get the period part of your post. Fire sales on vintage? Probably no. Discounts on mrsp production watches, looks like we're heading that way.

The luxury watch market is on track for its worst year ever.

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Dropping big time, but wait another 3 weeks for the even steeper drop.

Why do you post the same replies continually about dropping prices,very boring.
Like you are wishing and hoping prices crash so you can manage to buy,sad.
Not happening.
This is a watch forum not a discussion on the same stupid subject of prices dropping.Change the dam record.

[JK911]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Why do you post the same replies continually about dropping prices,very boring.
Like you are wishing and hoping prices crash so you can manage to buy,sad.
Not happening.
This is a watch forum not a discussion on the same stupid subject of prices dropping.Change the dam record.

Extremely boring

[IR201]

Originally Posted by calebb90

If the price isn’t what you want to pay, then don’t. Pretty simple.


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what

[IR201]

Originally Posted by RHIII

These threads are exhausting. All depends on the reference. The ‘hot’ hard to get models will plateau well above retail period. Some more “sought after” references will become more available let’s say....BLNRs, LVcs....etc.

Those wishful thinkers - or as I would say hope for grey dealers to be ‘forced’ to truly lower prices to where things were, say 2 years ago will remain disappointed, and still unable to try to capitalize off of a terrible time...and keep this ridiculous threads going.

If you think you’ll see Daytonas and BLROs for retail...think is all you’ll accomplish...

Don’t hold your breath waiting for “fire sales”.

Period.

With respect, my thread wasn't about that. I'm not one of the wishful thinkers, in fact I've bought several rolexes above MSRP cus i wanted them and was comfortable with it and yolo. I was just curious if the trade in valuations from the greys are also holding as firm as their sale prices which seem consistent with pre-covid era. That is all. But maybe you've got more of an issue with others on the thread than my question?

[EEpro]

Here's the 116500 with no differentiation between white and black dial and no distinction between new and used listings.

The trend is down. That's said, it's not by nearly as much as you can convince yourself if you are cherry picking data.

Across all listings for the last 30 days it's at -3% with 594/1410 sold.

We will see what happens next month with missed rents and mortgages.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by IR201

With respect, my thread wasn't about that. I'm not one of the wishful thinkers, in fact I've bought several rolexes above MSRP cus i wanted them and was comfortable with it and yolo. I was just curious if the trade in valuations from the greys are also holding as firm as their sale prices which seem consistent with pre-covid era. That is all. But maybe you've got more of an issue with others on the thread than my question?

I know - you posed a completely legitimate question.

Yes - my response was to the worn out responses / positions / speculations that take all these threads to the same place.

The new pieces popping up are going out the back doors of some ADs for a small profit.

Cheers


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[RHIII]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Here's the 116500 with no differentiation between white and black dial and no distinction between new and used listings.

The trend is down. That's said, it's not by nearly as much as you can convince yourself if you are cherry picking data.

Across all listings for the last 30 days it's at -3% with 594/1410 sold.

We will see what happens next month with missed rents and mortgages.

Spot on - there’s no doubt that it is happening to a degree - and it’s easy to see with a linear forecast model with no data smoothing or more detailed regression to really dig into the details and incorporate inference of the specific variables.

You’re right - in that - right now ‘you’ can definitely pick the data that supports an individual hypothesis or position.

The plateau will be well above retail. I suspect somewhere 17-19. Also the fact that many greys aren’t buying right now. Specific references only - Mostly entertaining trade deals.




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[IR201]

Originally Posted by RHIII

I know - you posed a completely legitimate question.

Yes - my response was to the worn out responses / positions / speculations that take all these threads to the same place.

The new pieces popping up are going out the back doors of some ADs for a small profit.

Cheers


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Fair enough, cheers!

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Lol what are all these threads being made about no drops in prices when they clearly have - are you all undercover greys or being paid by them or something? Prices are clearly dropping for all the hot models in the last month

BLNR: $15K-->$12K
Pepsi: $17K-->$14K
Daytona: $25K-->$19K
Hulk: $16K-->$13.5K

This


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Greys are probably gauging if this is a COVID related thing or a new “normal”. I think once they realize this is the new “normal” and that the hype has completely vanished prices will drop more significantly

[dwjez14]

Originally Posted by Webster2281

What about PM? I have yet to see the YG subc decline.


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I think yellow gold pieces are already bargains ? You can pick a yellow gold sub or day date up for thousands less than retail. It has been that way for a long time
I wouldn’t expect those pieces to come down much more even with this crisis

[Webster2281]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I think yellow gold pieces are already bargains ? You can pick a yellow gold sub or day date up for thousands less than retail. It has been that way for a long time
I wouldn’t expect those pieces to come down much more even with this crisis

So, you don’t think a $25k YG subc will decline at all in a global recession?? I wonder how they fared in 2008.


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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Webster2281

So, you don’t think a $25k YG subc will decline at all in a global recession?? I wonder how they fared in 2008.


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Very poorly. Jomashop had PM pieces 30% off. SS was usually 5-10%.

[Webster2281]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Very poorly. Jomashop had PM pieces 30% off. SS was usually 5-10%.

Sounds about right. I guess I’ll hold off then. PM at 30% off would be nice.


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[ndrs63]

I think the same watch listed on the grey website is posted elsewhere at lower price as well. That way they have it both ways.


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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by tng11

We really needed the hundredth thread on this... (face palm... oops wasn't supposed to touch my face)

These threads are going to be common thing.

Its the same when the market was heading up. Every single damn thread was about "how much can I flip my BLNR/BLRO/Hulk" etc...

Now every single thread is about how much money I will lose or the gray market is dropping like flies etc.....It goes both ways.

Whats good about the decline and panic is it will get rid off most if not ALL the speculators which is excellent for true watch lovers.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Webster2281

So, you don’t think a $25k YG subc will decline at all in a global recession?? I wonder how they fared in 2008.
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Gold pieces have gone up yes definitely as a rising tide raises all boats. However dont expect fire sales on PM pieces. The fire sales will be on the hyped SS models where owners have taken loans or used money they could not afford to buy them.

[IR201]

Originally Posted by peterpl

These threads are going to be common thing.

Its the same when the market was heading up. Every single damn thread was about "how much can I flip my BLNR/BLRO/Hulk" etc...

Now every single thread is about how much money I will lose or the gray market is dropping like flies etc.....It goes both ways.

Whats good about the decline and panic is it will get rid off most if not ALL the speculators which is excellent for true watch lovers.

I get where you are coming from but again do have to defend what my thread was about, because my question wasn't really about what you are describing. Actually I'm one of the watch lovers you mention. Just curious if I do decide to trade in a piece for another whether greys are treating trade values differently in the given climate (since it doesn't seem obvious to me sales pricing has been significantly affected yet). I don't think you have to just not give a crap about money at all to be a true watch lover.

[Andad]

As buyers see prices of sought after models slowly reducing won’t they hold off purchasing pending a ‘bottom line’.

Why would I buy any product when I see the prices might be coming down?

I would not like to be holding multiple stock of some Rolex watches.

Especially at these price points.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by directioneng

As buyers see prices of sought after models slowly reducing won’t they hold off purchasing pending a ‘bottom line’.

Why would I buy any product when I see the prices might be coming down?

I would not like to be holding multiple stock of some Rolex watches.

Especially at these price points.

I'm surely waiting. Classic deflationary spiral could set up in luxury watches. Probably give it 6 months to shake out. If it's already moving it's got more room to run.

[bin31z]

Black Ceramic daytona just broke 19K on Chrono24

[nigelUK]

I don't think it's gonna be the free for all that some of you are hoping

Definitely prices are only going one way ...

I have cash waiting for a BLNR at MSRP +10% but Im not holding out too much hope.

[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by nigelUK

I don't think it's gonna be the free for all that some of you are hoping

Definitely prices are only going one way ...

I have cash waiting for a BLNR at MSRP +10% but Im not holding out too much hope.

MSRP+10%?

Nigel, get down to your AD once things open up and place you’re order. I’ll be amazed if one doesn’t come through for MSRP in next to no time.
Then put the 10% towards something else.

AD’s have been calling around asking if their clients are still interested in purchases. That’s unheard of last couple of years. The market has already markedly shifted in favour of the buyer and will continue to do so.

Only entertain Grey prices when they are below MSRP.