15400 price increase

[golfsc]

I know I'm being lazy as I'm sure this has been discussed, but was wondering if someone could explain to me the price increase for the 15400.

I have a white dial 15400 and I was hanging out in the Rolex forum when a poster wrote that he could get $20K for his used. I then went to online and saw at chrono24 the 15400 listed for prices >$20K

I know the 15500 is now available, but I would not think this would cause a significant price increase as the 15400 was always readily available at retail. I could see this with the SS Rolexes as they are harder to get and when a model is discontinued it becomes even more rare.

What's going on?

[dauster]

Originally Posted by golfsc

I know I'm being lazy as I'm sure this has been discussed, but was wondering if someone could explain to me the price increase for the 15400.

I have a white dial 15400 and I was hanging out in the Rolex forum when a poster wrote that he could get $20K for his used. I then went to online and saw at chrono24 the 15400 listed for prices >$20K

I know the 15500 is now available, but I would not think this would cause a significant price increase as the 15400 was always readily available at retail. I could see this with the SS Rolexes as they are harder to get and when a model is discontinued it becomes even more rare.

What's going on?

whats going on is that AP has started to create artificial scarcity by removing many AD's their license and basically only selling watches in AP only boutiques (few exceptions here & there ). That has created a lower amount of SS models available hence the price increase for the discontinued model on the grey market. also shut down of factory due to corona has not helped at all this year.

[golfsc]

Thanks for your response.

Guess AP has decided to go the way of Rolex with the SS models. You would think that given the number of watches they sell compared to Rolex they would not want to slash into their sales.

[mineral]

The right size 41mm and discontinued model always appreciate in value.


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[supernova]

The price of ALL SS RO has sky rocketed in past year, due to

1. Retail price increases
2. Potential Rolex SS buyers now shifting to AP due to narrowing in prices such as Daytona, Pepsi, Hulk etc.
3. Scarcity of pieces since AP only make ~44k watches per year and recent production shut down due to pandemic

[Caramba]

It's natural that the second hand prices of the 15400 somewhat follows the grey market prices of the 15500, as those are real alternatives that potential buyers have.

From my observations 20-21k is what you could get a 15400, full set in good condition nowadays, except the blue dial obviously. APs business model is like Rolex for the SS model, create artificial scarcity to inflate grey market prices and popularity. Ultimately this also helps the sales of less popular models, as grey market buys in bulk to get a hold of scarce models which they will sell for premiums.

At the moment the grey market premium is just 10-15% over retails prices for the Royal Oak 15500, but who knows what it will be in a few years from now. PP and Rolex steel models sells at a much higher premium than that.

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by Caramba

It's natural that the second hand prices of the 15400 somewhat follows the grey market prices of the 15500, as those are real alternatives that potential buyers have.

From my observations 20-21k is what you could get a 15400, full set in good condition nowadays, except the blue dial obviously. APs business model is like Rolex for the SS model, create artificial scarcity to inflate grey market prices and popularity. Ultimately this also helps the sales of less popular models, as grey market buys in bulk to get a hold of scarce models which they will sell for premiums.

At the moment the grey market premium is just 10-15% over retails prices for the Royal Oak 15500, but who knows what it will be in a few years from now. PP and Rolex steel models sells at a much higher premium than that.

It sounds like your assuming retail and premiums will keep rising. That 20-21k you observed some members here got theirs for about half that not too long ago, a few got GOLD ones for the current asking price of a blue 15400. Prices are ridiculous now, just like the economy, markets, houses, etc. Over time things will get better but in the shorter run there is some big pains ahead. Many people forget these were just watches a few years ago and were heavily discounted and available. I had 5 grays trying to sell me one when I showed minor interest. Some people are gonna get burned pretty bad for speculating and using watches as investments. AP also needs to realize this strategy they are playing can also hurt them in the long run and may alienate the REAL aficionados of the brand before all of this and the FOMO Instagrammer crap. I'm not an economist or expert but everything cant be going up forever, even worst some commodities that are supposed to be inverse like gold keep rising as well. This is just my opinion,but lots and lots of red flags for me.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by myporsche

It sounds like your assuming retail and premiums will keep rising. That 20-21k you observed some members here got theirs for about half that not too long ago, a few got GOLD ones for the current asking price of a blue 15400. Prices are ridiculous now, just like the economy, markets, houses, etc. Over time things will get better but in the shorter run there is some big pains ahead. Many people forget these were just watches a few years ago and were heavily discounted and available. I had 5 grays trying to sell me one when I showed minor interest. Some people are gonna get burned pretty bad for speculating and using watches as investments. AP also needs to realize this strategy they are playing can also hurt them in the long run and may alienate the REAL aficionados of the brand before all of this and the FOMO Instagrammer crap. I'm not an economist or expert but everything cant be going up forever, even worst some commodities that are supposed to be inverse like gold keep rising as well. This is just my opinion,but lots and lots of red flags for me.

But in fairness, I'm sure many people are like OP, too lazy to do the research (I don't mean that as a burn, just a observation on performative behavior), so they don't look back to realize what's happened in the past, look at current prices, accept them for what they are, and pull the trigger.

And you're right, it's all relative, because if you can only pick up a PP 5167 gray at 35k, then a RO at retail 20k seems like a real bargain, seriously.

[golfsc]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

But in fairness, I'm sure many people are like OP, too lazy to do the research (I don't mean that as a burn, just a observation on performative behavior), so they don't look back to realize what's happened in the past, look at current prices, accept them for what they are, and pull the trigger.

And you're right, it's all relative, because if you can only pick up a PP 5167 gray at 35k, then a RO at retail 20k seems like a real bargain, seriously.

As I stated in my OP I already own a 15400 and I got mine below retail from a grey dealer.

I love watches as hopefully my collection demonstrates. My laziness comes from not following prices and not putting in the work to figure out why such a sudden jump in the price for the SS RO occurred. I think there are a lot of collectors out there like me who stop watching prices once our desired watch is purchased.

I do agree with your point however that these prices and the scarcity of these watches won't last forever. During the great recession (2010) I remember walking into a Rolex AD and seeing two SS Daytonas in the display case for sale.

[Jgives]

I don’t think it’s complicated, or necessarily artificial, or perhaps even a fad. Supply and demand. Period.

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by Jgives

I don’t think it’s complicated, or necessarily artificial, or perhaps even a fad. Supply and demand. Period.

It's a little more than simple supply and demand. There are many market forces, catalysts, and artificial scenarios being crated that is manipulating supply and demand. When the market gets bad I'm sure AP will adjust and find creative ways to get more (force) the product out to the consumer (i.e. discounts, more ADs, more availability, less games, etc) at the end of the day its a business after all just like grad school

[Jgives]

Originally Posted by myporsche

It's a little more than simple supply and demand. There are many market forces, catalysts, and artificial scenarios being crated that is manipulating supply and demand. When the market gets bad I'm sure AP will adjust and find creative ways to get more (force) the product out to the consumer (i.e. discounts, more ADs, more availability, less games, etc) at the end of the day its a business after all just like grad school

Ok, but every business has the same factors that they adapt to. They don’t want to over supply, nor do they want to overly inflate demand. It takes 6-12 mos to get their basic SS models. That’s more like a tailor made business. Seems pretty much in balance.

[Reign]

EUR/USD has increased about 10% this year giving European buyers more buying power.

Prices have increased across the board this year.

AP will likely produce <30k pieces this year due to the shutdown.

Add to the fact that the 15400 is a real alternative to the 15500 (where supply has been pinched because of the shutdown) and naturally prices will increase.

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by Jgives

Ok, but every business has the same factors that they adapt to. They don’t want to over supply, nor do they want to overly inflate demand. It takes 6-12 mos to get their basic SS models. That’s more like a tailor made business. Seems pretty much in balance.

Cool - so why was it easily attainable 3 years ago and every boutique had one in pretty much any color, why were grays fighting for my business? Why did I see Jumbos like candy at ADs (even more hyped now). There will come a point where it should hit that at the end of the day its a watch and its SS and it was half the price a few years ago, again my opinion, its a drop dead gorgeous watch but to me its not worth 30, 25, even 20k . Lots of spending going on now like there is no end in sight, if your making money in the market now congrats but its really not that hard to do so and everyone else is also making money. Lots of red flags that remind me of bubbles and major course corrections.

[S2000_driver]

DSW has a white 15400 listed for $29675. Let's see how long it lasts.

His previous listing for a grey 15500 @ $27xxx lasted less than 24 hours.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by S2000_driver

DSW has a white 15400 listed for $29675. Let's see how long it lasts.

His previous listing for a grey 15500 @ $27xxx lasted less than 24 hours.

I didn’t believe you and had to check. Wow that’s almost 3x what I got mine for less than 8 years ago. This market is crazy

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by singe89

I didn’t believe you and had to check. Wow that’s almost 3x what I got mine for less than 8 years ago. This market is crazy

You got a 15400 for <$10k? What was retail price 8 years ago?

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by myporsche

Cool - so why was it easily attainable 3 years ago and every boutique had one in pretty much any color, why were grays fighting for my business? Why did I see Jumbos like candy at ADs (even more hyped now). There will come a point where it should hit that at the end of the day its a watch and its SS and it was half the price a few years ago, again my opinion, its a drop dead gorgeous watch but to me its not worth 30, 25, even 20k . Lots of spending going on now like there is no end in sight, if your making money in the market now congrats but its really not that hard to do so and everyone else is also making money. Lots of red flags that remind me of bubbles and major course corrections.

Amazon was worth about half as much in March, and even way less than that 5 years ago. Serious comment because anyone whose just blindly bought FANG plus Tesla stock has some crazy money to throw around now. But even just in the watch side of the world, think about all the posts we see about people looking at 'trading up' their Rolex SS LV, BLRO, or Daytona and go into the AP Brand. It's all inflated, and all way beyond sane prices. But while the music is still playing....

[karasus]

Its hard to say what is going to happen, we are in uncharted territories atm. However I do expect that the USD will lose quite a bit of purchasing power, hence a broad increase in USD price on any imported goods prices in USD.

[macrowatch]

I am told from some US dealers that overseas demand has soared exactly for that reason. Lots of European and Asian buyers trying to pick up the USD based inventory.

[m3jasper]

Originally Posted by supernova

The price of ALL SS RO has sky rocketed in past year, due to

1. Retail price increases
2. Potential Rolex SS buyers now shifting to AP due to narrowing in prices such as Daytona, Pepsi, Hulk etc.
3. Scarcity of pieces since AP only make ~44k watches per year and recent production shut down due to pandemic

AP makes 40,000 pieces a year and this year's production will only be 37,500 because of the production issues caused by the pandemic.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

You got a 15400 for <$10k? What was retail price 8 years ago?

Not quite 3x...Want to say it was like $10.8k shipped from an AD and retail at the time was around $16.7k. That was before many price increases and the major price decrease that AP significantly cut AD margin to keep them from giving large discounts. They also weren't that popular because everyone was going after the 15300 and classic 39mm size but I wanted the 41mm for my larger wrist.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by singe89

Not quite 3x...Want to say it was like $10.8k shipped from an AD and retail at the time was around $16.7k. That was before many price increases and the major price decrease that AP significantly cut AD margin to keep them from giving large discounts. They also weren't that popular because everyone was going after the 15300 and classic 39mm size but I wanted the 41mm for my larger wrist.

Crazy... congrats!! If only ROs still traded at those rates

[supernova]

Originally Posted by singe89

Not quite 3x...Want to say it was like $10.8k shipped from an AD and retail at the time was around $16.7k. That was before many price increases and the major price decrease that AP significantly cut AD margin to keep them from giving large discounts. They also weren't that popular because everyone was going after the 15300 and classic 39mm size but I wanted the 41mm for my larger wrist.

So you got around 40% discount from an AD for a new 15400 around 8 years ago? That’s quite mad..

And it really is simple supply and demand with surge of new young money.

Look at Rolex SS and how that situation is. It’s just natural that it will also flow to brands in the next levels such as AP and PP with their SS.

I’m personally predicting SS RO will move up in price a lot more in coming year, similar to how the 5711 surged, maybe not as much though but we’ll see!


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[Jgives]

Originally Posted by supernova

So you got around 40% discount from an AD for a new 15400 around 8 years ago? That’s quite mad..

And it really is simple supply and demand with surge of new young money.

Look at Rolex SS and how that situation is. It’s just natural that it will also flow to brands in the next levels such as AP and PP with their SS.

I’m personally predicting SS RO will move up in price a lot more in coming year, similar to how the 5711 surged, maybe not as much though but we’ll see!


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Agreed. Aside from the patterned increase in price that was coming, the US is about to inflate the price of everything around the world.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by Jgives

Agreed. Aside from the patterned increase in price that was coming, the US is about to inflate the price of everything around the world.

On the contrary, it Europe driving up global resell prices as the price of AP in US and Asia are now substantially lower than in Europe due to exchange rates.

Retail price in USD is 20,400 (+tax about 22,000) whereas in EUR is 22,000 (26,190 USD) and GBP 20,000 (26,600 USD). In HKD I think it works out even cheaper.

AP need to fix this price disparity between the regions as pieces bought by greys in US and Asia are just being shipped to Eur or else price bumped up to Eur prices everywhere. This is why the greys are snapping up these pieces and price inflation is sky rocketing for these models.

[Caramba]

The main reason for higher demand, and hence higher prices in recent years, is growing demand from Asia. I think many people in the west underestimate the growth and transformation especially China is going through, and the impact it has on the demand for luxury goods.

Rolex, AP and more knows exactly how to play this game. That's why I don't think we'll see a broad crash in prices for SS models, on the contrary - it is likely that prices will continue increase.