Trade 15202st for 5712

[crispyness87]

Is now the time to buy /trade into a 5712?

I’ve noticed prices of 5711 and AP RO 15202 (given both are now discontinued) are inline with 5712, and in some listings actually surpass 5712. Rightfully or wrongly, one can say 5712 should trade above those 2 watches given the additional complications; and I believe historically, the 5712 always traded above.

I’m thinking seriously of trading my 15202st for a 5712 with some top up. Just a few months ago, this would have been impossible with the 15202 materially behind in price. Assuming a top up of around US$10-15k, I think this will quickly be made back eventually when 5712 gets discontinued.

What do you folks think?

[JR16]

Is this an investment question or a watch enthusiast question? Are you bored of the 15202 and have always wanted a 5712? If yes, then go for it. If you are trying to make a few bucks, then it’s anyone’s guess.


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[ts3]

The key question is if you prefer 5712 over 15202. The watches are quite different in terms of look and feel. I for one have never fully warmed up to the Royal Oak but have liked the 3700/5711/5712 ever since they first appeared on my radar in the mid 2000s.

[crispyness87]

Originally Posted by JR16

Is this an investment question or a watch enthusiast question? Are you bored of the 15202 and have always wanted a 5712? If yes, then go for it. If you are trying to make a few bucks, then it’s anyone’s guess.


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Fair and valid point, to which I’d say both. As a watch enthusiast, I prefer the 5712. But at the same time, I’m trying to rationalize the monetary aspect of the decision/trade. While we can say we should make decisions purely from a ‘watch enthusiast’ standpoint, 99% of the group (myself included) are constrained by limited resources.

But yeah good point you brought up, hopefully the above makes sense.

[HMHM]

Honestly future value questions are a bit of a hit and miss. No one can predict the future. I do think the 15202 value will surpass the 5712 eventually. Why? Because the 15202 will be the last RO Jumbo with the same exact JLC derived 2121 movement that has been powering the RO Jumbo since the 5402ST. and next year is the official discontinuation of the 15202. So there is still room for the 15202 to go up upon discontinuation next year when it gets replaced by a new 39mm RO Jumbo, likely with an in-house movement with certain improvements like quick set date, screw down crowns and improved water resistance which some might say take away the heritage of the original Jumbo.

[crispyness87]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Honestly future value questions are a bit of a hit and miss. No one can predict the future. I do think the 15202 value will surpass the 5712 eventually. Why? Because the 15202 will be the last RO Jumbo with the same exact JLC derived 2121 movement that has been powering the RO Jumbo since the 5402ST. and next year is the official discontinuation of the 15202. So there is still room for the 15202 to go up upon discontinuation next year when it gets replaced by a new 39mm RO Jumbo, likely with an in-house movement with certain improvements like quick set date, screw down crowns and improved water resistance which some might say take away the heritage of the original Jumbo.

Mate. Valid opinion.

[AK797]

I prefer the 12 so would trade for it.

[brandrea]

I’d definitely do that trade. I admit, I never understood the 15202

[7sins]

Aesthetically speaking, which is subjective I much prefer the 15202 to the 5712 as I prefer the bracelet and clasp on the AP. I do like the 5712 asymmetric dial but being crowded makes it optically look and wear smaller than the 15202 if that is important. From an investment perspective, remember that as prices rise more sellers come into the market which is what we saw with the 15202. I think both of them will rise at a similar % or plateau, the better investment would be a 15202OR. At these dollar prices you should buy what you like knowing that there is a low probability you would lose any money.

[Token74]

Love both. No wrong answer.


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[GeraldGentaFan]

I waited years to get my 15202st but since getting it 2 years ago, it has gotten little wrist time. My 5712 I have had for many more years and never stopped loving it…

[Tinka2020]

Haha two beautiful pieces, I wish you good luck with that decision. 5712 would be my choice though personally I’m bored of the Royal Oak now.


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[edhahn44]

Get the 5712; no brainer for me


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[chimp98]

5712 would be my choice given the more complex movement and aesthetics which I know is subjective. I also don't agree with the assessment that the 15202 will ONLY go up in price due to next year's new model. If AP changes the new model for the better (i.e. screw-down crown, improved water resistance, etc), I think the old model would take a hit in price. Of course these are all speculations but I've always been the camp of buying the watch you like/love to wear rather than as a financial investment. Good luck!

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[Uros]

Wouldn’t…15202 is hall of fame watch and such a beautiful piece


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by chimp98

f AP changes the new model for the better (i.e. screw-down crown, improved water resistance, etc), I think the old model would take a hit in price.

While it's highly likely the new model will be technically superior, I would not expect 15202 prices to take any hit at all, unless there is a general market collapse. The new model will almost certainly be hard to get and I don't see the VIPs that will be served first dumping their previous generation Jumbos. There were various predictions that the new in-house chrono would sink values of the current Royal Oak Chrono - so far prices have only accelerated.

To the OP - to me neither the 15202 or 5712 are really $100k+ watches, but if I had to pick I'd probably make the deal OP is considering.

[KBM]

Well, you've said you prefer the 5712, so that answers the question. For me, the jumbo crushes the '12, so it's a big NO WAY!

That is to say, this seems like a matter of pure personal preference, as both are great watches.

[JCC296]

you don't do any trade but add Keep the 15202st and buy the 5712.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

While it's highly likely the new model will be technically superior, I would not expect 15202 prices to take any hit at all, unless there is a general market collapse. The new model will almost certainly be hard to get and I don't see the VIPs that will be served first dumping their previous generation Jumbos. There were various predictions that the new in-house chrono would sink values of the current Royal Oak Chrono - so far prices have only accelerated.

To the OP - to me neither the 15202 or 5712 are really $100k+ watches, but if I had to pick I'd probably make the deal OP is considering.

Totally agree, new 15202 will hit the grey market above current 15202 price, much like the green 5711. That will either stabilize current 15202 pricing or raise values up.

[uniqueMR]

Patek

[underpar31009]

15202 all day for me. It is my favorite in my collection.


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[subtona]

Absolutely would make that trade.

[Bearxj86]

Very close one - I personally would go with the 12 but both is the answer. They are that good.

Mines the 3712 and my 202 is IP but very similar.




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[ragsk]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Very close one - I personally would go with the 12 but both is the answer. They are that good.

Mines the 3712 and my 202 is IP but very similar.




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I have the same 15202IP and the 5712. If I could only own one it would the the 5712. But thankfully I don't have to make that choice.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by crispyness87

Is now the time to buy /trade into a 5712?



I’ve noticed prices of 5711 and AP RO 15202 (given both are now discontinued) are inline with 5712, and in some listings actually surpass 5712. Rightfully or wrongly, one can say 5712 should trade above those 2 watches given the additional complications; and I believe historically, the 5712 always traded above.



I’m thinking seriously of trading my 15202st for a 5712 with some top up. Just a few months ago, this would have been impossible with the 15202 materially behind in price. Assuming a top up of around US$10-15k, I think this will quickly be made back eventually when 5712 gets discontinued.



What do you folks think?

I picked mine up in 2019 before it went crazy. No boutiques in Australia, I had to fly to SEA.

Fully stickered, I haven't worn it yet - unlike the 571xs, I have just not been tempted to do so. IMG_20190327_175437.jpg

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[Tinka2020]

Originally Posted by liljctl

I picked mine up in 2019 before it went crazy. No boutiques in Australia, I had to fly to SEA.

Fully stickered, I haven't worn it yet - unlike the 571xs, I have just not been tempted to do so. Attachment 1236160

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That’s a shame it’s to be enjoyed. That is something I have never gotten, buying a watch to just keep in the safe but then I don’t have the funds to not enjoy what I purchase.


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[liljctl]

Originally Posted by Tinka2020

That’s a shame it’s to be enjoyed. That is something I have never gotten, buying a watch to just keep in the safe but then I don’t have the funds to not enjoy what I purchase.


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I enjoy owning it. Ticks off a box.



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[Tinka2020]

Originally Posted by liljctl

I enjoy owning it. Ticks off a box.



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Haha I am sure you do it’s a beautiful piece


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[cascavel]

Originally Posted by liljctl

I enjoy owning it. Ticks off a box.



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You are not alone. A quick glance at pics of APs and Pateks posted on this site will reveal many pristine pieces. And, keep in mind, these are billed as scratch magnets, yet, few exist with scratches.

[gilluminati204]

The Twelve for me

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