Why do complicated watches not hold their value?

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Absolutely!

Look at the innovation of the Rolex SkyD movement and compare to Patek's annual calendar. Rolex truly is an amazing complication that also ensures a high waterproofness too. Very usable as a daily for people who love office life AND the ocean. Five-year warranty too.

If you mean true high-quality movement decoration, then obviously you'll want FP Journe.

So yes, take your pic if you want incredible innovation (Rolex) or perhaps the very best in movement decoration (FP Journe). How would you compare FP Journe to PP when it comes to offering truly excellent movement handwork?

Here's a video of the SkyD movement, look at all that incredible innovation!

https://youtu.be/abHr5TOu6m4

Am sure you already know of FP Journe's greatness so....

Agree. In fact I think they should be more actively compared. A Skydweller vs 5726A for example make for a very interesting comparison.

Currently a SKydweller SS costs: $15K vs PP 5726A = $53K

Both are blue, on bracelet, and water-resistant. I think its definately interesting to debate the $40K difference (let alone secondary market delta) of the 2. My opinion is that I think the 5726 is priced correctly whereas the Skydweller is way too cheap and should be priced at least above $20K at retail.

[911AP]

You all are just underestimate the effect of instagram....... It's that sample. Hype controls any market now, fundamentals no longer matter.

[R.bartlett]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Trends come and go and are impossible to predict. All I know is that it is great the younger generation is still into watches. Whatever their reason is it keeps our hobby alive. One day once they get bored of the usual popular sports watches, they will gravitate towards dress watches. We might already be seeing signs of this with rising values of Lange etc

I'd take a Lange over a Journe any day.. The Journe hands drive me mad..

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by ericksakti

If you notice most of FP Journe pieces, the word FP Journe in the dial is very big for most of the models, so most people who knows FP Journe will know that its Journe from a distance. Not saying that its bad, but the branding in the dial is quite flashy and not subtle, and i guess thats part of the appeal.

“FP Journe” is written “very big” and prominently on this watch? Larger and more prominently than other brands? Larger than “A. Lange & Sohne” on the Datograph or “Vacheron Constantin” on the OS shown below?

“FP Journe” is written at the top along what would be a minute track in a normal watch. Hardly very big or flashy.

It’s the design of his watches and dials that makes his watches unique and recognizable (and not flashy IMHO) by those who know Journe, not the size of the text of the brand’s name on the dial.

[pdnb]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

“FP Journe” is written “very big” and prominently on this watch? Larger and more prominently than other brands? Larger than “A. Lange & Sohne” on the Datograph or “Vacheron Constantin” on the OS shown below?

“FP Journe” is written at the top along what would be a minute track in a normal watch. Hardly very big or flashy.

It’s the design of his watches and dials that makes his watches unique and recognizable (and not flashy IMHO) by those who know Journe, not the size of the text of the brand’s name on the dial.

Was thinking the same! Not quite a response to the OP’s original question but the size of the FP Journe is hardly the reason his dials are recognizable LOL!


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[daveo5]

The most significant factor is numbers produced. If there are sufficient models of a complicated manner they will not be deemed collectible. When a model is produced in a figure, let’s say, a dozen, and it has intricate complications, collectors will pay big bucks. Take the Nautilus, is it rare, were only a very few made, no. Don’t confuse the ridiculous prices, men are paying today, for a watch that can be had from any number of sources, new or pre-owned.


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[AK797]

Originally Posted by ramenlover

I don’t think the Pound is that influential outside of Europe. Brexit may have been a factor but I don’t think it played more than a minor role. There are other forces at work here in my opinion.

Brexit was the catalyst, without it we may still today be in a fairly normal market as the stockmarket had been buoyant for a few years already by 16 so that was no great driver of prices, then after 16 we had QE, Chinese buying due to gift laws relaxing, Crypto and the rise of socials that have all sustained the rising market, but none caused it all to change overnight in a major market that then spread like wildfire in this interconnected world, there are no international barriers any more.

[Rushne]

I think FP Journe has seen an increase in price mainly due to only producing around 1000 pieces a year.

[fsprow]

I just hope that watches depreciate less than a car. Happy with any that meet this.

Using a casual (I like blue calf) strap helps the complicated watches work fine with informal clothing.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Rushne

I think FP Journe has seen an increase in price mainly due to only producing around 1000 pieces a year.

And innovation plus overall quality. Their finishing work is excellent. ALS does nice work too.

[brucethemanlee]

i'm in jeans, sneakers, and t-shirt/polo shirt everyday - even for work.

I work out almost every day

I need a sports watch. I don't need a dress watch ever

Last wedding I went to suit and tie, I wore my Daytona 116500, which fit perfectly under my french cuff.

So absolutely no need for a dress watch on a crocodile strap

But that's just me

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

i'm in jeans, sneakers, and t-shirt/polo shirt everyday - even for work.

I work out almost every day

I need a sports watch. I don't need a dress watch ever

Last wedding I went to suit and tie, I wore my Daytona 116500, which fit perfectly under my french cuff.

So absolutely no need for a dress watch on a crocodile strap

But that's just me

No one “needs” any of this. Its a matter of style. I love sports watches and that is most of my collection. But if I can throw on a real haute horology complicated piece in that scenario it is so much more enjoyable! Versatility isnt everything sometimes.

[mario1971]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

And innovation plus overall quality. Their finishing work is excellent. ALS does nice work too.

It's a fact that Lange is able to maintain high quality in all models, even the basic ones, which cannot be said about the PP.

For comparison, Lange produces 5 times more watches than FP Journe.

[azizu]

Originally Posted by Rushne

I think FP Journe has seen an increase in price mainly due to only producing around 1000 pieces a year.

plus the major advertisement of a certain grey market dealer

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

No one “needs” any of this. Its a matter of style. I love sports watches and that is most of my collection. But if I can throw on a real haute horology complicated piece in that scenario it is so much more enjoyable! Versatility isnt everything sometimes.

agreed not needed... but certainly, for me, it is preferred

[uniqueMR]

Lange over FP Journe, 100%..

[Humble michael]

Originally Posted by rpl77

This is spot on


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Yep great Analysis :-))

[NYG1121]

Was at a swanky place last night. Saw no joke like 20+ rolex watches. Pepsi/daytonas etc. I was there with my 5296 and struck a convo with someone with a PAM out of all pieces. Way more enjoyable.

[pdnb]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Was at a swanky place last night. Saw no joke like 20+ rolex watches. Pepsi/daytonas etc. I was there with my 5296 and struck a convo with someone with a PAM out of all pieces. Way more enjoyable.

From a ratio perspective, I would guess that more PAM owners like to discuss watches than a Rolex owner.

Naturally not on this forum, but in an “everyday” situation

[macrowatch]

Suddenly after NYC2LA’s post I find myself wanting three more watches.

I find this sentence from Ramenlover so insightful: To most people they’re just round watches, and Complications are just round watches with more busy dials.

So right, in my early days. No way I could tell the difference between a circle case gran complication from one brand to another. But easy to see date bubble on a Rolex.

[Rushne]

Originally Posted by azizu

plus the major advertisement of a certain grey market dealer

Exactly. They probably buy up most of them. Don’t get me wrong. I love the, but their prices are not only due to great pieces

[SeeDweller]

This is an awesome analysis - - all of it!
I love RamenLover's original layout. It has the ring of truth to me.

And, I love wearing different watches at different events - and must admit that a large amount of the choice is dependent on the fashion rather than the horologic necessity (even waterproofness!). If I'm wearing a blue sport shirt and jeans at a pool party (like last night) I might put on a Bluesy 16613 on a blue rubber Everest deployment strap. This morning, it gets swapped it out for something in a leather strap, just cause it matches my shoes and belt! Any excuse to wear something different in the rotation!
Hell, ... it's all just for fun, right?

The issue on my mind though .... is how often I'll wear the incoming 5205G-013. It's freaking gorgeous, of course! Guess I need to attend more watch-enthusiast GTG's right?

[JorgeCCW]

I think patek is the best compromise option for your complicated watch.
Meaning yeah they are not outstanding and they are overpriced but that comes with the territory; movements are outdated but reliable… nice dials , history, etc. Actually a Rolex is a great complement to a patek, because Rolex bring to the table what Patek can’t and vice versa.
Journe movements are to die for , but I hate the dial design in general, there are a few that I do like as a whole. Lange is coming up in the market , but I think it’s niche is the Datograph and the Lange 1.
So not a definitive answer here

Just throwing some random thoughts
Cheers

[911AP]

Again everyone still is ignoring the basic fact of hype. It has nothing to do with the market or any of this nonsense. What first started was hype. Journe is up only because of hype as well. Supply and demand was always there and the same. Only thing that changed is demand. Why did demand change? Social media hype. That's all. Not Brexit, not crypto, not stocks. It's hype.

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Again everyone still is ignoring the basic fact of hype. It has nothing to do with the market or any of this nonsense. What first started was hype. Journe is up only because of hype as well. Supply and demand was always there and the same. Only thing that changed is demand. Why did demand change? Social media hype. That's all. Not Brexit, not crypto, not stocks. It's hype.

agreed hype is hype. some hype is more "just" than others. FP hype is pretty justified imho, more so than PP. Rolex hype is a joke to me
other brands , like Lange, deserve way more hype than they get, and i am currently in the market for those brands

[Fleetlord]

Beach to boardroom to fine dining versatility.

Luxury in 2021 isn’t as much about opulence as it is about the ability to do whatever, whenever. Want to go party on the boat then maybe a quick private flight to wherever for the next adventure? Sports models are by far the most compatible with the modern, active luxury lifestyle. Sprinkle in the exclusivity factor and they are the slam dunk of dunks!

[scurfa]

Another to throw in the mix, I was well impressed with this Jaeger




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[JR16]

Originally Posted by scurfa

Another to throw in the mix, I was well impressed with this Jaeger




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I owned this - very nice watch but didn’t wear much, so I sold it and got crushed on re-sell value. But it was part of a trade toward a FPJ CB, which is now worth almost triple what I got it for, so guess things even themselves out !


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[jon_jon]

Originally Posted by Mac123

I don’t understand why a super complicated Patek loses a significant amount of its retail price straight after its purchased from an AD and the nautilus / aquanaut range go up in value?

Yes watches should not be bought for investment but it baffles me how 5270p decreases significantly upon purchase and 5167 increases a lot.


What’s you’re thoughts behind the reasons why this happens?

Do you think complications will start to hold their value in the future?

Have you looked at the 5740? It is a complicated watch, but market price is way over list price. I have always predicted when Patek release a PC in a Nautilus, people would go "ga ga" over it. It has happened with the 5740. Patek has yet to release an AC or PC in the Aquanaut, but when it does, it will be quite popular as well.

I have predicted and still predict Patek will make a PCC in a Nautilus case and that will be quite popular as well.

So the question is not about simple or complicated watches. It is about whether the watch is in a "sporty" case or a "dressy" case, even with the same movement inside.

[ericksakti]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

“FP Journe” is written “very big” and prominently on this watch? Larger and more prominently than other brands? Larger than “A. Lange & Sohne” on the Datograph or “Vacheron Constantin” on the OS shown below?

“FP Journe” is written at the top along what would be a minute track in a normal watch. Hardly very big or flashy.

It’s the design of his watches and dials that makes his watches unique and recognizable (and not flashy IMHO) by those who know Journe, not the size of the text of the brand’s name on the dial.

well i said most, not all