The market has peaked

[whiskyrolex]

Originally Posted by chaokuay

I don't believe we have peaked; perhaps a correction.

China's still locked down and the news is only getting worse...

Good thing Rolex doesn't produce watches in China.

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by IR201

And at various points in time they’ll all be right and say I told you so!


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It's so true. Rolenomics at work.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by Gab27

Don't tell me that. I really like the CHNR and if I saw one in my AD's case I might find myself having some explaining to do to my other half...

It was there. They offered it to me ( in perpetuity for the BLNR ) but I bought the DJ41 instead.

I was actually floored when I recently found out they were 2x msrp.

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by Time Out

It was there. They offered it to me ( in perpetuity for the BLNR ) but I bought the DJ41 instead.

I was actually floored when I recently found out they were 2x msrp.

You're making me want to stop in at my AD.

I guess when she asks, "why do you need another Rolex?" I can tell her that it is imperative that I always know what the time is in Coober Pedy, Australia.

[Rolesium]

I have a feeling the whole meteoric rise of Rolex prices is a fad that will pass. Not too many years ago, the only watch that wasn't readily available at a dealer was the steel Daytona. The Daytona was always that way. But even that was still available after a wait. Anything other than steel Subs and GMTs (and Daytonas) could be had for a small discount, including TT and gold versions of the Subs, GMTs, and Daytonas. Date-Justs and Day-Dates always came with a discount if you asked.

I think it's mainly the advent of YouTube watch "gurus" and InstaNarcissists that drove the crazy demand. And like all fads this will pass. And I think even Rolex SA is over having their dealers with nothing to show but empty display cases.

As always, I Could Be Wrong™

Oddly enough I don't wear my Rolexes in public anymore. People around here (Los Angeles) are getting mugged in broad daylight for them. I still want a nice steel Date-Just, fluted bezel, blue Jubilee dial, and Jubilee bracelet though. But no way in (bleep) am I going to pay over list for one, and certainly not to some cafone on the internet. I'm fine with waiting until the fad blows over.

And I'm fine if it doesn't.

-James-

[Andad]

I guess when she asks, "why do you need another Rolex?" I can tell her that it is imperative that I always know what the time is in Coober Pedy, Australia.[/QUOTE]

And that is not easy to do with a modern Rolex GMT given the half hour time difference.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Rolesium

As always, I Could Be Wrong™

You, me and everyone. It's variable and it depends on a number of things.

In late 2008 I was seriously thinking about the 16610LV. My AD had one which was already sold. They put me on a wait list but nothing happened because the 11 series was approaching and the list wasn't carried over.

The accepted supposition that until more recently, say from around 2016-17ish, anyone could walk into and AD and walk out with a SS professional model (apart from a Daytona) is not supported by my experience. Not that I was paying much attention at the time, the Kermit was the only Rolex that interested me.

Oddly and anecdotally, the opposite is the case for me. Since late 2017 I've walked in on spec and walked out with a Polar, Z Blue, OP36 Grape. I was also offered a BLNR on one occasion. I passed. That happened in July 2020. That day I walked out with a TT white Sky Dweller, so I didn't go home empty handed.

[HelloMelo]

I can certainly see more downside to come given the economic environment we're in + the war in Ukraine.

Can anyone give insight on why prices might go back up? Seems like peak mania has passed and supply is finally catching up to demand a bit.

We now have people passing on TT and PM models, along with certain DJ configurations that most people wouldn't have a month ago.

[TheWatchmen]

I think prices will go back up, but probably for the in-demand models, not so much for TT DateJust models per se.

The reason they will go back up is because there are far more people in the market now, whether due to the internet, or other factors.

I think prices will continue to trend down before going back up however, and I think when they rise again, it will go slowly, more like the way it has been the last 25 years.

But hey, who knows - maybe everything will be sold at a discount again if the economy goes into the crapper…but if that happens, it will eventually rebound and those prices will go up again, as they eventually always have.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Rolesium

I have a feeling the whole meteoric rise of Rolex prices is a fad that will pass. Not too many years ago, the only watch that wasn't readily available at a dealer was the steel Daytona. The Daytona was always that way. But even that was still available after a wait. Anything other than steel Subs and GMTs (and Daytonas) could be had for a small discount, including TT and gold versions of the Subs, GMTs, and Daytonas. Date-Justs and Day-Dates always came with a discount if you asked.

I think it's mainly the advent of YouTube watch "gurus" and InstaNarcissists that drove the crazy demand. And like all fads this will pass. And I think even Rolex SA is over having their dealers with nothing to show but empty display cases.

As always, I Could Be Wrong™

Oddly enough I don't wear my Rolexes in public anymore. People around here (Los Angeles) are getting mugged in broad daylight for them. I still want a nice steel Date-Just, fluted bezel, blue Jubilee dial, and Jubilee bracelet though. But no way in (bleep) am I going to pay over list for one, and certainly not to some cafone on the internet. I'm fine with waiting until the fad blows over.

And I'm fine if it doesn't.

-James-

Don't wear them? If I were to find myself in that situation I'd either move or get rid of the watches.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

I think prices will go back up, but probably for the in-demand models, not so much for TT DateJust models per se.

The reason they will go back up is because there are far more people in the market now, whether due to the internet, or other factors.

I think prices will continue to trend down before going back up however, and I think when they rise again, it will go slowly, more like the way it has been the last 25 years.

But hey, who knows - maybe everything will be sold at a discount again if the economy goes into the crapper…but if that happens, it will eventually rebound and those prices will go up again, as they eventually always have.

You are absolutely right, there are more people in the market today, the same reason there were more people in the stock market and crypto market over the last 2 years. It was a "safe haven", it was an "investment" and quite frankly worked for a very long time.

The last 25 years there was no craze and "allocating" of all these watches except for the Daytona.
I think were going close to retail (not retail but very marginal premiums) on most sports watches, except for the steel Daytona.
Back to how its always been, and back to a way where it is long term sustainable.

[FrogWatch]

Prices will absolutely still go down. I talked to two very reputable grey dealers over the weekend. I am always seeing what dealer prices are these days for a variety of my watches. They both quoted me under retail for a 3 month old 116519LN. They both said that things just really aren't moving right now. One of them received over 20 current Royal Oaks because smaller greys are having to liquidate. Sit tight. Things are going to swing more in our favor.

[mr_gray]

we are really in the moment right now i suspect. not to dampen enthusiasm but if one is interested in a watch, now is great time not to buy it and wait for a month or 2. i am in australia which is a very small market. it is so spotty. some pieces really high whilst others at world beating prices. so may great stainless steel watches reapproaching rrp.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by mr_gray

we are really in the moment right now i suspect. not to dampen enthusiasm but if one is interested in a watch, now is great time not to buy it and wait for a month or 2. i am in australia which is a very small market. it is so spotty. some pieces really high whilst others at world beating prices. so may great stainless steel watches reapproaching rrp.

What’s rrp


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[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

What’s rrp


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Recommended retail price. It’s interchangeable with MSRP here in the states.

[whiskyrolex]

It's happening.

[Quamby]

Originally Posted by FrogWatch

Prices will absolutely still go down. I talked to two very reputable grey dealers over the weekend. I am always seeing what dealer prices are these days for a variety of my watches. They both quoted me under retail for a 3 month old 116519LN. They both said that things just really aren't moving right now. One of them received over 20 current Royal Oaks because smaller greys are having to liquidate. Sit tight. Things are going to swing more in our favor.

Yes, it’s better to look at what the grey dealers are willing to pay for pieces, rather than what prices at which they are selling. I think it will take the market some time to work thru the glut of unsold stock, but the bigger problems lie in the wholesale B2B market.

One of the bigger grey dealers in Hongkong has ALL the 50th Anniversary AP Royal Oaks in stock. They bragged about how they purchased them at inflated prices prior to their official launch in February and how they will only sell them at the right price……………they better have diamond hands.

[offrdmania]

I offered a dealer the current market value the other day on a piece im looking for and my offer was refused. He said he paid much more than that for it only a few weeks ago and couldnt take the loss. Im suspecting the longer the piece is held onto, the more these dealers are going to lose. It is at what point do they panic sell at a loss to recoup anything they can.

[Quamby]

Originally Posted by rolex16

My bet is we are about to find out where all the watches have been hiding these past few years…I also think the AD logjam will break within 6 months. It is already starting. More and more will pass when they get the call.

Yes definitely, all those pieces that are in hands of grey dealers will have to be moved and sold/liquidated soon.

As for the AD logjam. ADs that are unable to sell to cash-strapped grey dealers or flippers will begin to offer them to retail customers, but still at above MSRP or in bundle deals for now. Watch ADs are known to be pretty bad in selling to greys and flippers thru the back door, while Jeweler ADs are notorious for bundle deals (want the BLNR? Buy $5000 of tiny diamonds that are probably only good for making diamond saw blades).

[Incroyable12]

How much discount can one negotiate with these dealers in a market like this?

For example if a watch has been sitting at a dealer's for almost 2 years.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

How much discount can one negotiate with these dealers in a market like this?

For example if a watch has been sitting at a dealer's for almost 2 years.

If it’s been sitting there 2 years, they are so far upside down it wouldn’t even make sense to sell. They might as well stuff it in a safe for 10 years. Unless they are going belly up, then anything goes.

One exception might be RM. you still see a lot of dealers way off base on price, likely because bringing them down to realistic market pricing is a massive hit.


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[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

If it’s been sitting there 2 years, they are so far upside down it wouldn’t even make sense to sell. They might as well stuff it in a safe for 10 years. Unless they are going belly up, then anything goes.

One exception might be RM. you still see a lot of dealers way off base on price, likely because bringing them down to realistic market pricing is a massive hit.


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The watch I had in mind was some rare variation of a vintage Royal Oak but of fairly narrow appeal.

Wonder if they'd do 30% or more off.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

If it’s been sitting there 2 years, they are so far upside down it wouldn’t even make sense to sell. They might as well stuff it in a safe for 10 years.

Unless it's out of production, sitting on anything long term doesn't make much, if any, sense. Assuming the individual watches aren't used as collateral for anything, they are simply a commodity with a real market price. Selling at whatever the market price is provides positive cash flow that can be used to buy a replacement at a low enough price to generate profit.

I went through this with real estate in 2008; I had been a principal investor for 10+ years and owned virtually everything free & clear. On paper, I lost millions. Once I came to grips with not being "rich" any more, I sold things off at whatever the current market price was & took significant capital losses. However, it did provide cash flow and I was able to use that money to make new investments at lower prices.

It's a painful process, frankly it sucks, but unless one is truly convinced this is going to turn around quickly, holding out for yesterday's value is a bad business call. That said, these guys are sitting on so much "production" inventory (where they created fake scarcity), that they need to be careful, or it will be a complete rush for the bottom. At the same time, under-capitalized flippers will pass on the AD offerings & more end-users will be getting watches at MSRP again, which will further reduce demand in the secondary market.

Prices will bleed as slow as they can tolerate, but once a few sellers are forced to liquidate everything, all bets are off.

Just my opinion, but I can't see luxury items with 100+% increases in the secondary market over the last 2-3 years having the same demand when a large percentage of the recent "easy money" buyers are watching their other investments evaporate in real time.

[eijiboy]

Went to a grey dealer this morning and they told me they are not buying one unless they have a buyer on the other end. They are not keeping any stock because everyday, prices are going down and cant afford to keep a watch even for a week. This tells you how volatile the market is currently.

[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by amh

I just hope so OP!

Remember the "good old days"?
- Common references in stock, all the time (DJ, Subs)
- Every case had a good mix of SS and PM
- Several meteorite pieces
- Easy to get 10% discount on anything, often 15+
- "Going grey" could easily save 20% and avoided AD pressure
- The used market was at this -20% grey level or less

We bought what we wanted and nothing more. It was pretty easy to get rid of things and buy something else but there wasn't 1:1 value retention with purchase price nor any such expectation. Overseas travel was fun, all foreign ADs also stocked up and you'd save 25% on a brand new watch from the airport. Bliss!!

Waiting for the old days to come back around...

[Littletommy]

What does this post have anything to do with.....

"Ebay and internet sales authenticity, real/fake identification discussion"

[southtexas]

Originally Posted by Littletommy

What does this post have anything to do with.....

"Ebay and internet sales authenticity, real/fake identification discussion"

Are you kidding? Or trolling? Or just having a bad day?


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[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Littletommy

What does this post have anything to do with.....

"Ebay and internet sales authenticity, real/fake identification discussion"

This is where they stuffed all of us who want to talk shop about market and prices.

Welcome to the new most popular part of the forum.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

This is where they stuffed all of us who want to talk shop about market and prices.

Welcome to the new most popular part of the forum.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Honestly I'll take it. Beats threads being deleted / killed instantly by a country mile!


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