Questions on 116500 vs 126500 perceived value

[milgauss2232]

Hi, I am about to pull the trigger on a grey dealer ‘new’ white 116500. The dealer claimed it is dated Oct 2023.
I’m still considering the 126500 though, but my arguments for leaning towards 116500 are:
1. I just find the white dial looks better with the full black ceramic bezel
2. The subdials have a wider ‘border’ and thus looks more balanced to me - the thinner black edges on the 12 just feels like there’s too much white negative space
3. It’s going to be more difficult to find a ‘brand new’ 116 in the near future, if not impossible, and if they are still available, probably going to sell very high.
4. 4131 isn’t that much different than 4130

I do acknowledge that these are just my opinions and not what the general public agrees to, but from the way I see it these make the 116500 seem more ‘valuable’ than the 12, especially point 3 on scarcity. Also, I’m in the impression that grey market dealers will use whatever reasoning available to jack up prices. So herein lies my question - why does 126500 sell higher than 116500 in the grey market? Is there something I missed in my comparison of these two iterations?

[gamingdoctor]

Daytona is full of hype, so new hype models will sell for more. Doesn't get more complicated than that.

FWIW, I think the older 116500 is a nicer looking watch as well.

[joli160]

Since the new one has arrived the 11 has only gone down and will continue to do so whilst the 12 remains strong.
Most people including myself think the new one is the prettiest but if you like the 11 better than patience pays off.

Regardless, investing double MSRP in an overhyped watch doesn’t sound like good business to me.

[dnd2984]

Having both I lean towards the 1165 white.

[Mystro]

I think in the long run the 11 series Daytona will always be THE one as it set a completely new level of Daytona hysteria even before there was any mainstream Rolex hype/inflation.
It had a relatively short run and started and finished at the very pinnacle of desirability in the Rolex catalogue.

The 12 series is selling for slightly more money now because it was just released and there is less currently in the market at this time. That actually speaks volume on how much powerful the 11 series is. Give it 5 years and the 11 series will be selling for much higher than the 12 series.

No one has a chance getting a new 116500 white Daytona any more at msrp from their AD.

The 12 series Daytona is NOT universally thought of as an improvement. In fact most of the informal polls place its design changes only at the 50% mark of like it better.


The 4130 has proven one of, if not THE best in-house movement Rolex ever created with a stellar reputation for durability and accuracy.

In the end they both are tier one models so get the design that speaks to you the most.

[Hkspwrsche]

I prefer the 116500 both white and black by a lot. Of course the white dial is my favorite. The way it looks and the movement are most of the reasoning. The other factor is I have a a few Speedys that when I have them serviced the darn metal bezel always has dings in it. Those bezels aren’t much but I feel like that thin metal ring will be dinged up easily and without the teeth I have on my other watch bezels, it seems it will be more obvious.
If there was ever a watch you were going to feel comfortable to buy gray, it’s a Daytona. Most folks will not have enough “spend” to get one at retail. When my AD sold me my ceramic Pepsi, I was told the typical spend for that would be over 100k of other stuff first.
If the market cools more, the last thing they will do is hand out Daytonas. Those have always been a bit rare. I do hope the other models are more regular in the case one day.

[Davidt]

If you’re considering both what you want and what’s may/may not be more valuable in the future they’ll occasionally conflict.
Personally I’d say balls to what may/may not be a better investment and for with the 11 as that’s the better watch imo. All the ‘improvements’ on the 12 detract from it.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I think in the long run the 11 series Daytona will always be THE one as it set a completely new level of Daytona hysteria even before there was any mainstream Rolex hype/inflation.
It had a relatively short run and started and finished at the very pinnacle of desirability in the Rolex catalogue.

The 12 series is selling for slightly more money now because it was just released and there is less currently in the market at this time. That actually speaks volume on how much powerful the 11 series is. Give it 5 years and the 11 series will be selling for much higher than the 12 series.

No one has a chance getting a new 116500 white Daytona any more at msrp from their AD.

The 12 series Daytona is NOT universally thought of as an improvement. In fact most of the informal polls place its design changes only at the 50% mark of like it better.


The 4130 has proven one of, if not THE best in-house movement Rolex ever created with a stellar reputation for durability and accuracy.

In the end they both are tier one models so get the design that speaks to you the most.

Says it perfectly. OP get a good condition 116500 Panda while you still can. 5 years from now it will be the most desirable modern steel Rolex. It's already the most favoured over the new white dial 126500. The price of the 126500 white dial is slightly higher than the 116500 Panda because it's a newer model and not many are available, check after 3 years. It's another Hulk vs Starbucks/Cermit in the making.

[Greg.A]

Check out the Fratello (really popular website for watch hobbyists )watch poll. 126500LN wins the 116500LN in the poll.

The 126500ln has improved certain aspect of the design while paying tribute to the earlier Daytonas
1. Thinner counter rings which resembles the Zenith Daytona
2. Bezel with outer metal rings similar to the earlier Daytonas
3. Symmertical lugs
4. Redesigned case with contoured lugs to sit better on wrist
5. Chronograph pusher slightly bigger for easy operation

The higher market price for 126500LN also reflects its popularity. As supply vs demand plays its role in the market. Since the 126500LN is only in the market for 1 year + vs the 116500LN being in the market already for 7 years, naturally there will be more owner biases of the latter. When more masses gets the 126500LN, you will then see the differences in view. My humble opinion here.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Greg.A

The higher market price for 126500LN also reflects its popularity. As supply vs demand plays its role in the market. Since the 126500LN is only in the market for 1 year + vs the 116500LN being in the market already for 7 years, naturally there will be more owner biases of the latter. When more masses gets the 126500LN, you will then see the differences in view. My humble opinion here.

You could also argue, that since the 126500 has only been on the market for one year, the supply is much more limited versus the 116500, which pushes the prices higher for those who want a 126500 so the higher price may not in fact have to do with popularity in absolute terms but more in relative terms compared to availability.

And while there may be more owner bias of the 116500, there is also a massive bias for "newer is better", and while the owner bias are limited to those who owns the 116500, the "newer is better"-bias is more universal - which is only natural because that are how marketing works "Buy our new and improved product". I can also see that the Fratello-discussion is from May 2023, so almost immediately after the new one was released to much hype.

As always the answer is: Buy the one YOU like the best.

[Greg.A]

https://www.fratellowatches.com/sund...n-vs-126500ln/

For those who are interested to know more

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by joli160

since the new one has arrived the 11 has only gone down and will continue to do so whilst the 12 remains strong.
Most people including myself think the new one is the prettiest but if you like the 11 better than patience pays off.

Regardless, investing double msrp in an overhyped watch doesn’t sound like good business to me.

100%

[MRBolton]

Look at the Hulk vs the Starbucks. When the Starbucks first came out, it was above the Hulk. Now look which is higher.

As the newness fades and more 126500 are in the market, the 116500 (at least the white dial) will probably surpass its 126500 successor.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Greg.A

Check out the Fratello (really popular website for watch hobbyists )watch poll. 126500LN wins the 116500LN in the poll.

The 126500ln has improved certain aspect of the design while paying tribute to the earlier Daytonas
1. Thinner counter rings which resembles the Zenith Daytona
2. Bezel with outer metal rings similar to the earlier Daytonas
3. Symmertical lugs
4. Redesigned case with contoured lugs to sit better on wrist
5. Chronograph pusher slightly bigger for easy operation

The higher market price for 126500LN also reflects its popularity. As supply vs demand plays its role in the market. Since the 126500LN is only in the market for 1 year + vs the 116500LN being in the market already for 7 years, naturally there will be more owner biases of the latter. When more masses gets the 126500LN, you will then see the differences in view. My humble opinion here.

The Fratello poll isn't relevant as we are discussing the white dial Panda only which is the more popular in the 116500 than 126500 for the most part.

Multiple more people on waiting lists for the new 126500 than who actually own the old 116500 which makes for more biases for the new 126500 vs the old 116500, as all the people on the waiting lists can only get the new one. Add that to new is better biase too.

[Greg.A]

Originally Posted by APPRF

The Fratello poll isn't relevant as we are discussing the white dial Panda only which is the more popular in the 116500 than 126500 for the most part.

Multiple more people on waiting lists for the new 126500 than who actually own the old 116500 which makes for more biases for the new 126500 vs the old 116500, as all the people on the waiting lists can only get the new one.

People on waiting list don’t own the watch, how then to have owner bias?

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Greg.A

People on waiting list don’t own the watch, how then to have owner bias?

They may be owners eventually. Using your logic on previous post, it's only fair to add owners and future owners to make it work. Everyone on waiting lists has hope in owning the new 126500 so they vote for it.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by milgauss2232

1. I just find the white dial looks better with the full black ceramic bezel
2. The subdials have a wider ‘border’ and thus looks more balanced to me - the thinner black edges on the 12 just feels like there’s too much white negative space

There's your answer. 1165

[Osmin]

The 12 is just so much more refined.
11 slowly decreasing value and in direct comparison will loose. Sure, it’s a nice watch. But to construct somehow it’s „better“ and „more desirable“ than the 126500? No way.

[MCSGold]

Originally Posted by joli160

Since the new one has arrived the 11 has only gone down and will continue to do so whilst the 12 remains strong.
Most people including myself think the new one is the prettiest but if you like the 11 better than patience pays off.

Regardless, investing double MSRP in an overhyped watch doesn’t sound like good business to me.

Does MSRP really matter when most people have no chance of buying it at MSRP?

[928ktgold]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I think in the long run the 11 series Daytona will always be THE one as it set a completely new level of Daytona hysteria even before there was any mainstream Rolex hype/inflation.
It had a relatively short run and started and finished at the very pinnacle of desirability in the Rolex catalogue.

The 12 series is selling for slightly more money now because it was just released and there is less currently in the market at this time. That actually speaks volume on how much powerful the 11 series is. Give it 5 years and the 11 series will be selling for much higher than the 12 series.

No one has a chance getting a new 116500 white Daytona any more at msrp from their AD.

The 12 series Daytona is NOT universally thought of as an improvement. In fact most of the informal polls place its design changes only at the 50% mark of like it better.


The 4130 has proven one of, if not THE best in-house movement Rolex ever created with a stellar reputation for durability and accuracy.

In the end they both are tier one models so get the design that speaks to you the most.

These informal polls mean squat when 99% of the people in the poll don’t own a Daytona. People who have owned both have a different opinion. Probably most see the 126 as an improvement and therefore their preferred model. I loved my 116500pn white and never thought about getting the new one……until I saw one in person. Older is very photogenic. New one looks better to me in real life.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Osmin

The 12 is just so much more refined.
11 slowly decreasing value and in direct comparison will loose. Sure, it’s a nice watch. But to construct somehow it’s „better“ and „more desirable“ than the 126500? No way.

The 11 is just so much more sporty and bold.
12 slowly decreasing value as more comes to market and in direct comparison will loose. Sure, it’s a nice watch. But to construct somehow it’s „better“ and „more desirable“ than the 116500? No way.

Its funny how those things works both ways.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Deppe

The 11 is just so much more sporty and bold.
12 slowly decreasing value as more comes to market and in direct comparison will loose. Sure, it’s a nice watch. But to construct somehow it’s „better“ and „more desirable“ than the 116500? No way.

Its funny how those things works both ways.

The 126500 will be produced for decades if Rolex doesn't realise it made a mistake equal to the Hulk redesign. Doesn't work at all especially with the white dial. Prices of the white dial 116500 will surpass the new 126500 as it was produced for 7 years in which it was artificially made scarce plus a 1.5 years Covid interruption of production.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by APPRF

The 126500 will be produced for decades if Rolex doesn't realise it made a mistake equal to the Hulk redesign. Doesn't work at all especially with the white dial. Prices of the white dial 116500 will surpass the new 126500 as it was produced for 7 years in which it was artificially made scarce plus a 1.5 years Covid interruption of production.

I think that the 126500 will be in production until the 75 year anniversary of the Daytona, so approx. 15 years, which is in line with the production time for 16520 and 116520. But as everyone else here, I don't know anything about what Rolex will and won't do.

Whether the 7 year production period for the 116500 will make it sought after are to be seen - the Sea-Dweller 116600 was only produced for 3 years and have not exactly soared in demand. At least not yet, but they are also two vastly different watches.

I can see that on Chrono 24, there are currently 383 white dials 116500 for sale (with filters set to white dial, in stock and with box and papers). Approx. 10 of those are black dials on the picture, so lets say 373 for sale.

There are 137 white dials 126500 for sale with the same filters and around 10 of them also being black dials on the picture of, so let say 127.

So for each 126500 there are roughly 3 116500 available - however, the 126500 has only been produced for approx. 8 months, while the 116500 have been produced for approx 6 years (taking covid-19 into account).

[Madman37]

the thin dials in the new versions make both colours look like the watch has lost its allure and needs something to pump it up. It makes it look feeble.

I hate the outer ring too its is a scratch, ding magnet for no reason. It makes the watch look smaller.

The old black dial is the best in my opinion it is so classy and stealthy but buy what you like.

[IGY]

"So herein lies my question - why does 126500 sell higher than 116500 in the grey market? "

Because there are currently fewer lose 1265000 in the wild than there are 116500LN. However the longer you wait the fewer mint / unworn 116500LNs will be still available. And unworn 125600LN will continue to come onto the grey market. So the price differential between mint 116xxx and 126xxx will narrow and eventually reverse.

For the reasons already discussed here at length many people will prefer the 116xxx series of watches as compared to the current model.

And as an OP said paying 200% RRP is probably not a financially rational decision. But you explained that you are thinking with the heart and that you don't want to wait 2+ years for a vague, non-promise on a new 126xxx series watch. If you can easily afford to lose £10k instantaneously then such a decision is not necessarily financially irresponsible. More a case of you spending what you have earned on what you want. And yes, I understand that no-one is getting steel Daytonas at retail as you are implicitly burning money on other watch purchases, But even so my crystal ball is saying that the huge premium on steel 126500LN Daytonas is likely to narrow to a smaller premium in the future. But if you want a mint 116500LN you don't have the luxury to wait.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I think in the long run the 11 series Daytona will always be THE one as it set a completely new level of Daytona hysteria even before there was any mainstream Rolex hype/inflation.
It had a relatively short run and started and finished at the very pinnacle of desirability in the Rolex catalogue.

The 12 series is selling for slightly more money now because it was just released and there is less currently in the market at this time. That actually speaks volume on how much powerful the 11 series is. Give it 5 years and the 11 series will be selling for much higher than the 12 series.

No one has a chance getting a new 116500 white Daytona any more at msrp from their AD.

The 12 series Daytona is NOT universally thought of as an improvement. In fact most of the informal polls place its design changes only at the 50% mark of like it better.


The 4130 has proven one of, if not THE best in-house movement Rolex ever created with a stellar reputation for durability and accuracy.

In the end they both are tier one models so get the design that speaks to you the most.

I tend to disagree on a couple of points regarding the 11 series. I'm not convinced they will be selling for much higher than the 12 - simply because there are so many on the market. Even right now there are around 1000 listings on C24 for 116500LN's. Grey dealers did a good job of buying up as many as possible as future investments but there is a gazillion out there. It's faux rarity. Will they be more valuable than now? Almost certainly - but so will the 12 series as well, as retail prices increase exponentially.

As for the 12 series being seen as not "universally thought of as an improvement" - no next iteration of anything ever is. Ever. there will always be a split opinion about it.

[nr1416]

In 5 years I can almost guarantee the 116500 and the 126500 will be the same price on the grey. Fresh dated watches that are under a year old will always command a $1-2K premium. People are saying the 116500 are coming down in price in the past year but I've also seen the 126500 droop significantly in the past year as well.

[DC116710LN]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

there's your answer. 1165

+1

[milgauss2232]

Thanks guys. I’m sold on the 1165… hope I can post an incoming soon

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by MCSGold

Does MSRP really matter when most people have no chance of buying it at MSRP?

Interesting first post, welcome to TRF, and yes people do get them from their AD.