Is interest in AP sinking?

[Uros]

10 yrs ago it was all about ROO, now it is all about RO but cant keep trend for indefinite time so they need something new or go back to ROO (introduce jeans strap for example:)), code should have helped but missed the mark.

Prices are idiotic but to is more or less everything these days


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by gregouille

On my side I feel like price increase is one of the main reason why AP is in that spot now.

While I agree that the price increases have been excessive, and definitely give me pause for some models I would otherwise be interested in, I don't quite know what AP being "in that spot now" refers to? The secondary market is normalizing, as for most other brands that actually got caught up in the recent craziness (most never took off even in 2020-2022).

But AP is in the business of selling new watches in their corporate owned boutiques, and the ones I've visited recently continue to be busy. Less anecdotally, the January 2024 Morgan Stanley report still paints a picture of strength. Until new inventory starts piling up AP will be doing fine. Watch "investors" maybe not so much, but that's not really APs problem.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Uros

Prices are idiotic but to is more or less everything these days

That's pretty sport on - everyone, including me, complains about prices, but they are more or less in line with the most comparable models at VC and PP, and AP is (still) selling everything they make.

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by vliberman

All of the PP sports watches are at premium, a few of AP are. There is not one PP reference that is trading close to MSRP. Plenty of APs are significantly below MSRP.

I think your assessment of premium on AP is generous. 15202s are trading low 40s. I doubt 16202 go for $80k…

AP is not participating in non sports category so comparison is mute.

This is not correct at all. Many PP below retail.

Re sports model, they are definitely steady and above retail, but down a lot like everything else.

Sleeper sports model below retail 5905 1A

It’s a beauty and 20% below retail now.


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[Kittayos]

If you offer Code at 50% to grey market, I doubt it will ever get sold nowadays. Some Code tourbillon is facing a substantial loss at more than 60% off its msrp. most minute repeaters for RO is pretty much doomed also. 40% is expected at this stage. Forget about concept. AP for me is just pumping unwanted watches into the market.

[Halothane]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

Where are 15202s in the low 40s? I am on the hunt for one and still see above 60 for anything 2016 or later.

They are in the upper 40’s on Moda. But I would strongly consider a 16202 over a 15202. I think a large reason for the price drop of the 15202 is the intro of the 16202. From my experience - be prepared to send your 15202 in for service should you buy one and plan to actually wear it.


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[Watchman001]

Originally Posted by Halothane

They are in the upper 40’s on Moda. But I would strongly consider a 16202 over a 15202. I think a large reason for the price drop of the 15202 is the intro of the 16202. From my experience - be prepared to send your 15202 in for service should you buy one and plan to actually wear it.


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I’ve heard others say they wore doing all sorts of stuff. Is the 2121 really that delicate that it can’t handle daily duty?

[NYG1121]

2121 has been around for 50 years. It has its quirks like any old movement but its the heartbeat of the jumbo. I would take a 15202 over a 16202 any day of the week.

[Halothane]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

I’ve heard others say they wore doing all sorts of stuff. Is the 2121 really that delicate that it can’t handle daily duty?

I hope you have better luck than I had. I’ve had brand new AP’s with issues requiring them to be sent in. IMO the up charge for the 16202 would be worth it, just for the quick set date alone. Not to mention the 15202


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[vliberman]

Originally Posted by SMD

Comparison is “mute” tells me all I need about your opinion.

I think your pointing this out says more about u than me!

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

This is not correct at all. Many PP below retail.

Re sports model, they are definitely steady and above retail, but down a lot like everything else.

Sleeper sports model below retail 5905 1A

It’s a beauty and 20% below retail now.


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If u follow the argument, I am only comparing sports PP models (Aquanauts and Nautilus) to AP as it does not make any non sports watches. In that comparison, PP destroys AP in terms of secondary market value retention. Given the similarity between two from the design and functionality aspect, the difference must be attributed to the interest in AP sinking, the original point of this conversation. Before some members started to worry about syntax and grammar.

[Halothane]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

2121 has been around for 50 years. It has its quirks like any old movement but its the heartbeat of the jumbo. I would take a 15202 over a 16202 any day of the week.

Interesting take. So you don't feel the 16202 is an "upgrade"? You prefer a non quick set date? Or you are just more of a vintage guy? If you do love the 15202 it's a great time to buy! I think it's on life support after the release of the 16202.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by vliberman

If u follow the argument, I am only comparing sports PP models (Aquanauts and Nautilus) to AP as it does not make any non sports watches. In that comparison, PP destroys AP in terms of secondary market value retention. Given the similarity between two from the design and functionality aspect, the difference must be attributed to the interest in AP sinking, the original point of this conversation. Before some members started to worry about syntax and grammar.

it's a bit of an unfair comparison because AP has so many different RO models while patek has like 6 sports models. if you compare the top RO models to those like another poster already did, the premiums aren't much different because the production numbers and difficulty in acquiring them are probably similar

Originally Posted by mickyd329

To your point about AP not having anything other than RO? I'll just do the most sought after RO models.

15407st Double Balance Openwork 77% above MSRP
15510st 3 Hander (on average between dial colors) 52% above MSRP
26240st Chrono (Green Dial) 62% above MSRP
16202st 3 Hander Jumbo 117% above MSRP
15416ce Double Balance Ceramic Openwork 137% above MSRP

Really, that gap is that huge? I'm not debating whether the secondary market value is diminishing or not for AP. It absolutely is, but it's across ALL brands and not just AP like you want it to seem.

[johnsonsxusfrt]

Prices are down across all luxury watch brands. almost all Patek's are selling at or below retail except for their two flagship models (which have both dropped from their peak and continue to trend lower) and the only Rolex pieces trading at a tangible premium are a few of their GMT models and steel Daytona.

The Covid craze skewed things to the point the youtubers were offering "master class" training symposia on how to make money trading watches LOL!! Fools game

I think it's smart that the new AP CEO is scaling back production growth as the real world demand slows back to trend. The majority of watch flippers are going away and that is a good thing IMO.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's a bit of an unfair comparison because AP has so many different RO models while patek has like 6 sports models. if you compare the top RO models to those like another poster already did, the premiums aren't much different because the production numbers and difficulty in acquiring them are probably similar

I think it is very fair comparison as we are debating the wisdom of particular brands strategy and certainly having more unsuccessful variants is part of an argument. Now, I would argue the counterpositive, which is rife. Imagine PP didn’t discontinue some of its Aquanauts and Nautilus variants such as 5711 and kept producing them. Imagine, it actually introduced a tourbillon variant thereof, like AP did. Imaging adding a chime version thereof and Aquanaut double balance OW. And perhaps some anniversary PP rattrapante chrono to boot. Which way do u think the comparison would go? My uneducated €€€ would be on PP. Yours?

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by vliberman

If u follow the argument, I am only comparing sports PP models (Aquanauts and Nautilus) to AP as it does not make any non sports watches. In that comparison, PP destroys AP in terms of secondary market value retention. Given the similarity between two from the design and functionality aspect, the difference must be attributed to the interest in AP sinking, the original point of this conversation. Before some members started to worry about syntax and grammar.

Yes, in this context you are right 100%

As I mentioned earlier, I just picked up a 26240ST blue dial 50 anni for US$48k, which is just 14% over current retail.

In Singapore the 16202ST is only ~70% over retail.


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[vliberman]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

Yes, in this context you are right 100%

As I mentioned earlier, I just picked up a 26240ST blue dial 50 anni for US$48k, which is just 14% over current retail.

In Singapore the 16202ST is only ~70% over retail.


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Great pick up! Enjoy!

[dauster]

Originally Posted by Halothane

They are in the upper 40’s on Moda. But I would strongly consider a 16202 over a 15202. I think a large reason for the price drop of the 15202 is the intro of the 16202. From my experience - be prepared to send your 15202 in for service should you buy one and plan to actually wear it.


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Where are blue 15400, 15500 and 15510s trading these days ?


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[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by Halothane

Interesting take. So you don't feel the 16202 is an "upgrade"? You prefer a non quick set date? Or you are just more of a vintage guy? If you do love the 15202 it's a great time to buy! I think it's on life support after the release of the 16202.

I dont know what I am but I am realizing the older I get (40), the more I appreciate the charm of older/original things. I think the 2121 movement is as iconic as the RO case shape itself and it is so rare to be able to get anything that is “original” anymore. So give me the “inconvenience” of setting the date any day of the week as long as I have part of the history to go with it.

I also love manual transmissions because of similar reasons even though the current dual clutch automatics blow it out of the water specs wise. Maybe its just me.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by vliberman

I think your pointing this out says more about u than me!

Correct, I am literate and do not have an axe to grind on a watch brand, and whose only contribution to this subform is whinging about how shitty APs are.

[sensui]

Big fan of the 15202st over 16202st..... The original 2121 makes the watch for me since I don't want to deal with sourcing a nice original 5402.... So for me the 15202 is the sweet spot. The 15202st is definitely a great buy right now (the low 40s numbers thrown around is skewed, those are all incomplete/not original etc....a nice 15202st (I'm not talking unpolished or new) complete trends around low 50s/high 40s.

But IMO the original RO problem for AP has always been there.... And it's only going to be more glaringly obvious as demand cools for watches in general. But the jumbo is a rare occurrence where hype actually coincides with actually horological history.

[SMD]

For those who are long-term buyers of the brand you will be fine, though honestly you should not be playing here (or with PP) if you cannot afford to lose a significant amount of your initial purchase price. The people most upset seem to be those who bought in the last 5 years thinking watches would not lose money and only go up.

Off the top of my head, my AP experience -- 15400 ($14k); 15510 blue dial anniversary (MSRP, don't remember); 15407st ($55k), 15707ce ($18k), 26574ti ($80k); 15416ce (~$100k); 25th anniversary reissue 26237st ($28k). I have others but cannot remember what I paid honestly. In any event, don't think I have lost money, but if so, so be it.

Nothing would make me happier than having the brand not be popular or hyped like it was during covid.

[WatchEater666]

An APRO was one of the first nice watches I bought. I got it from Watchbox, the owl with moonphase, at a great price.

Then I thought it would be great to get another model, so I bought a millanary.

Subsequently I figured I’d get a new AP, which is when I learned about all the asinine games.

Total joke and very insulting to the customer imo. I just bought from great independents instead and have 0 intent of ever buying a new AP after.

I wonder how many true hardcore watch guys/collectors they have pissed off who used to love the brand? I know of many on WPS who had been buying AP since the 80s or 90s and are now completely turned off.

Very short sighted imo because lifetime value of a customer that actually cares about watches is likely much higher.

I think they are a poorly run business that got lucky in a few ways. Excellent PMF with the APRO has carried them for a long time but eventually it won’t :-)

[watchman124]

I think their poor treatment of customers is coming back to bite them and going to continue to do so. My personal experience with them has been terrible and the hype completely went to their heads.

I think they also went too far with blacklisting. I understand trying to curb people who are flipping watches for profit but it’s now turned into not being able to sell anything or be blacklisted - even the less desirable pieces that you lose 40/50% on. And it’s so blatantly selectively applied as well.


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[Uros]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

That's pretty sport on - everyone, including me, complains about prices, but they are more or less in line with the most comparable models at VC and PP, and AP is (still) selling everything they make.

Yes global revenues above 1bn and more than Patek last time i checked. AP simply has more sport models:)


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by vliberman

AP offshore models are trading 30% below MSRP if u can get a bid.. code 11.59 is even worse. AP has no other models to compare… so RO is it.. and it is falling.. so gap in valuation in huge

Would love for you to find me a gulf ROO at 30% below MSRP...

Originally Posted by Halothane

They are in the upper 40’s on Moda. But I would strongly consider a 16202 over a 15202. I think a large reason for the price drop of the 15202 is the intro of the 16202. From my experience - be prepared to send your 15202 in for service should you buy one and plan to actually wear it.


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Perhaps everyones experience is different but I have owned 5+ jumbos over many years, all various iterations of the 15202, never once have I had to send a single one in for service.

[codecow]

I still have high interest in picking up a PM RO ideally in YG. When I can get one for a fair price without waiting forever I’d consider it. I’d also immediately buy a Star Wheel.

[Uppersouth]

I’m not an AP owner but do find myself interested in getting an Offshore and a Royal Oak. I’m hoping, from a collector’s perspective, the cooling market will allow for easier allocations of Royal Oaks. At the same time I hope the decline doesn’t do irreparable harm to the company.

Perhaps an ancillary benefit may also be a return to true salesmanship at the boutique level. Let’s say, “the haute without the haughty”.

[Verticalforce]

Originally Posted by Halothane

I hope you have better luck than I had. I’ve had brand new AP’s with issues requiring them to be sent in. IMO the up charge for the 16202 would be worth it, just for the quick set date alone. Not to mention the 15202


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15202 has a semi quick set where you advance past midnight and back. Quicker to set than a Rolex GMT for me.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by watchman124

I think their poor treatment of customers is coming back to bite them and going to continue to do so. My personal experience with them has been terrible and the hype completely went to their heads.

I think they also went too far with blacklisting. I understand trying to curb people who are flipping watches for profit but it’s now turned into not being able to sell anything or be blacklisted - even the less desirable pieces that you lose 40/50% on. And it’s so blatantly selectively applied as well.


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Completely agree. I have been an AP fan for almost a decade. Going into the stores/boutiques was my favorite thing to do. Now, I hate to do it because its so off putting. I know others have had amazing experiences and I get that it can be SA dependent. But my gosh. How things have changed.