Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Vat free shopping has been scrapped TODAY by our goverment however its possible if you don't mind the item being posted back direct to your home in HK

Truss giveith and takes away! Thanks for the local info. Much appreciated.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Man what are you even talking about? Even on Chrono24, 15500s aren’t touching double retail (BNIB, full set).

Mind you Chrono is not a reliable indicator of the market, MODA is (for a plethora of reasons that have been discussed as nauseam in this chat). On Moda, BNIB full set have been going in the 30s and trending lower.

Originally Posted by Bpan

Blue dial 15500, posted 15 minutes ago

This dude continuously keeps posting new APs and then deletes the postings after a period of time (of not selling). It's also kind of *coincidental* that he JUST had an auction on a new 15510st grey, then relists one today at a higher price than his auction got bid up to. Really? You had multiple on tap or were able to source another one within days, also as a new/complete set? The probability of that is so absurdly low its essentially impossible.

(In my opinion) this is a prime example where it's almost a guarantee that the auctions are rigged, and bought by 'buddies' as a means of having a reserve on an auction. Shows that even the auctions aren't a real gauge of price right now, as the end results aren't even real. Also means the market is even softer than we thought. Another attempt by greys/backpack dealers to try and prop this thing up. Crazy. If we actually had some real stats on LEGITIMATE, sold listings across all platforms, I think were way closer to MSRP with Rolex/AP than most people think. and it's still yet to stop falling.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

This dude continuously keeps posting new APs and then deletes the postings after a period of time (of not selling). It's also kind of *coincidental* that he JUST had an auction on a new 15510st grey, then relists one today at a higher price than his auction got bid up to. Really? You had multiple on tap or were able to source another one within days, also as a new/complete set? The probability of that is so absurdly low its essentially impossible.

(In my opinion) this is a prime example where it's almost a guarantee that the auctions are rigged, and bought by 'buddies' as a means of having a reserve on an auction. Shows that even the auctions aren't a real gauge of price right now, as the end results aren't even real. Also means the market is even softer than we thought. Another attempt by greys/backpack dealers to try and prop this thing up. Crazy. If we actually had some real stats on LEGITIMATE, sold listings across all platforms, I think were way closer to MSRP with Rolex/AP than most people think. and it's still yet to stop falling.

100% agree with the above. Almost all the auctions on MODA that I've seen have no reserve and no starting price and are 24-48 hrs, and nearly all go for a "decent" price. It's made me skeptical because there is no verification that it's actually been sold to anyone vs (as you noted) an agreement with a buddy to bid it up to an acceptable level. If it "sells" to a buddy then they wait a week and relist it as a "new" one.

[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by aa909

100% agree with the above. Almost all the auctions on MODA that I've seen have no reserve and no starting price and are 24-48 hrs, and nearly all go for a "decent" price. It's made me skeptical because there is no verification that it's actually been sold to anyone vs (as you noted) an agreement with a buddy to bid it up to an acceptable level. If it "sells" to a buddy then they wait a week and relist it as a "new" one.

I think they have to pay MODA a fee for the auction though. not sure

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Man what are you even talking about? Even on Chrono24, 15500s aren’t touching double retail (BNIB, full set).

Mind you Chrono is not a reliable indicator of the market, MODA is (for a plethora of reasons that have been discussed as nauseam in this chat). On Moda, BNIB full set have been going in the 30s and trending lower.

Man what are YOU talking about.....

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...=1&sortorder=1

The cheapest 15500st for sale in the entire US on chrono alone is double retail....

I'm not even going to waste my time posting Takuya, davidsw, crm, watcheric, luxurybazarr, TPT etc... all having listings for the 15500 over 2x retail minimum.

https://watchcharts.com/watch_model/...500st/overview

^here....actual SALES DATA.

I won't even go into the 15202 still asking 2x retail as well.

You all keep talking about Moda.... go buy from Moda then. So far the only BS example that was provided was a complete misdirection of facts. Start posting the sale threads from Moda otherwise this is just a stupid argument everyone is having. Hearsay after hearsay with zero evidence to back it up.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Man what are YOU talking about.....

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...=1&sortorder=1

The cheapest 15500st for sale in the entire US on chrono alone is double retail....

I'm not even going to waste my time posting Takuya, davidsw, crm, watcheric, luxurybazarr, TPT etc... all having listings for the 15500 over 2x retail minimum.

https://watchcharts.com/watch_model/...500st/overview


^here....actual SALES DATA.

I won't even go into the 15202 still asking 2x retail as well.

You all keep talking about Moda.... go buy from Moda then. So far the only BS example that was provided was a complete misdirection of facts. Start posting the sale threads from Moda otherwise this is just a stupid argument everyone is having. Hearsay after hearsay with zero evidence to back it up.

Are you on juice? Even the link you posted has listings mostly below 2x MSRP.

New is the US is not double retail. For example see the links below. Should I post more? And this is chrono which is inflated. MODA is in the 30s and trending lower. And your “trusted sellers” are on MODA. it’s legit as many people on this forum can testify.

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Are you on juice? Even the link you posted has listings mostly below 2x MSRP.

New is the US is not double retail. For example see the links below. Should I post more? And this is chrono which is inflated. MODA is in the 30s and trending lower. And your “trusted sellers” are on MODA. it’s legit as many people on this forum can testify.

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

https://chrono24.app/audemarspiguet/...US&SETCURR=USD

Vince, honestly that guy is 100% a troll. As everything he says now makes zero sense. Don't feed the nonsense.

Also, hilarious how he utilizes Watch Charts as a mean of showcasing market price. For others to understand, those sold data points (of which they are very, very few in the last few months where the market has dropped tremendously) ONLY take into consideration the ASKING PRICE. For instance, the most recent 'sold' 15500st from his link, shows sold as $65k on TRF around June. In the listing alone he dropped it to $58k and nobody knows what he actually accepted. So Watch Charts shows it as a $65k sell, yet the real sale was probably closer to $50k.



It's incredible how some people want to try and manipulate facts/data to fit their narrative instead of just simply admitting they're wrong. Most all of his postings have started to come across a very, very weird. From the desperation in trying to convince people the market is unaffected, to his self proclaimed multiple RO/ROO flips in the last couple years (yet was 'still allocated a Jumbo'). I honestly think most everything he's rambling on about is nonsense at this point and should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by dmash

Vince, honestly that guy is 100% a troll. As everything he says now makes zero sense. Don't feed the nonsense.

Haha yeah. I’m done. When he posts a link that disproves his own point… there’s no reasoning with the guy

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Man what are YOU talking about.....

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...=1&sortorder=1

The cheapest 15500st for sale in the entire US on chrono alone is double retail....

I'm not even going to waste my time posting Takuya, davidsw, crm, watcheric, luxurybazarr, TPT etc... all having listings for the 15500 over 2x retail minimum.

https://watchcharts.com/watch_model/...500st/overview

^here....actual SALES DATA.

I won't even go into the 15202 still asking 2x retail as well.

You all keep talking about Moda.... go buy from Moda then. So far the only BS example that was provided was a complete misdirection of facts. Start posting the sale threads from Moda otherwise this is just a stupid argument everyone is having. Hearsay after hearsay with zero evidence to back it up.

the problem is chrono24/bobs/david/takuya and all other client facing greys are still keeping their prices high in hopes that they can hold the market up a bit and hold out for higher prices. in reality if you email any of them asking what they would pay for any of the watches from their listings the price would be much lower. i guess a lot of dealers can afford to hold off on pieces they bought earlier this year in hopes that prices go up and at the same time if they start listing real prices then everything will spiral out of control. the bigger greys probably have better cash flow and haven't been forced to liquidate yet like others who are dumping every watch onto the market. chrono was always inflated due to fees and the nature of the listings there (they don't even need the watch to list it so they can fish for higher prices), non blue 15450s were in the 50s at one point on there and i guarantee no one was buying them for that much

for now only the small niche that frequents moda knows the real market prices while most consumers that buy from greys still think the market is relatively inflated because they just look at chrono or david's site. moda is an extreme though because it's mostly dealers/wholesale and they're auctioning against each other because no one wants to buy right now, not to mention all the naked or over polished watches dragging prices down because it's a frenzy to sell. regardless, the prices you see on client facing sites are still inflated. try to email david asking him what he'll pay you for a 15500 and you should have a good idea of the real value (it'll be closer to moda). the prices you're seeing might just be watches that were bought at much higher prices earlier this year and they probably know that only a small percentage of people know about moda and most that wanna buy grey don't even know moda exists let alone will want to spend that much money off a facebook group

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Haha yeah. I’m done. When he posts a link that disproves his own point… there’s no reasoning with the guy

I can see your logic now. I haven't been up the a$$ of AP's website to see they increased the price of a 15500 to 26k. They are getting a little stupid now with these price increases but that's besides the point. I thought it was still 22k range. So when you posted a bunch of watches asking 44-46k I thought you were on "juice".

Regardless the asking prices are pretty close still at 2x retail for a entry level RO. The other harder pieces are still getting their premiums. Granted none of them are going for 5x retail anymore.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by huncho

the problem is chrono24/bobs/david/takuya and all other client facing greys are still keeping their prices high in hopes that they can hold the market up a bit and hold out for higher prices. in reality if you email any of them asking what they would pay for any of the watches from their listings the price would be much lower. i guess a lot of dealers can afford to hold off on pieces they bought earlier this year in hopes that prices go up and at the same time if they start listing real prices then everything will spiral out of control. the bigger greys probably have better cash flow and haven't been forced to liquidate yet like others who are dumping every watch onto the market. chrono was always inflated due to fees and the nature of the listings there (they don't even need the watch to list it so they can fish for higher prices), non blue 15450s were in the 50s at one point on there and i guarantee no one was buying them for that much

for now only the small niche that frequents moda knows the real market prices while most consumers that buy from greys still think the market is relatively inflated because they just look at chrono or david's site. moda is an extreme though because it's mostly dealers/wholesale and they're auctioning against each other because no one wants to buy right now, not to mention all the naked or over polished watches dragging prices down because it's a frenzy to sell. regardless, the prices you see on client facing sites are still inflated. try to email david asking him what he'll pay you for a 15500 and you should have a good idea of the real value (it'll be closer to moda). the prices you're seeing might just be watches that were bought at much higher prices earlier this year and they probably know that only a small percentage of people know about moda and most that wanna buy grey don't even know moda exists let alone will want to spend that much money off a facebook group

I've seen that as well. Especially at the beginning of the crash. A lot of dealers were selling for far higher than they were willing to buy. But that was because they had no clue where they bottom was. I think that's leveled off a bit now. I would imagine it's not as dramatic.

I agree though with an earlier poster about their point of when you finally start seeing watches in the cases in stores again. While it's happening with Rolex I doubt it'll happen with AP anytime soon beyond the Code. I have to mention code because someone will respond to this with "My local AP boutique has Codes on display already".....

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I feel everyone here just has confirmation bias. The AP market has pretty much stabilized from a month or so ago. In fact some royal oaks have started to move back up.

Everything for right now has taken a hit. It's only temporary. It will go back up.

I like your change of tune in 15 days

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

I like your change of tune in 15 days

???

I stand by that statement. This is temporary....but time will tell. I doubt it'll go back to 5x retail again, but it'll go back up. Supply issue hasn't changed. It's only temporarily changed because everyone panicked and dumped their supply all at once. Once that supply is absorbed little by little prices will go back up.

[dchang81]

As is the basis of the original post. Try offering your AP to any of these grey's selling them for well above MSRP and see what happens.

[aldyrifqi]

lets enjoy our lovely watches guys

[peb35]

Hello from Hong-Kong also.
As said by others, grey dealers has a lot of stock and won't buy-in some gold models like that, maybe only in consignment.
Other than that, fast selling steel watches with high-demand, they can still buy but they must make apply a mark-up so they may buy from you not higher than retail price. That's basic rule, I think.

[Wuls]

Newbie on the forums but since I've been looking at buying an AP RO for the past six months I can give you some flavour from the buyside.

- AP House, London - took my details, but were pretty surly in doing so.
- Moda - I can't explain it really - you engage with certain sellers of seemingly OK value (leaving aside the debate on what these things should be) products and they either flake quickly, mark it as sold (but then it reappears a couple of weeks later) or don't engage at all.

So I comfortably bought a VC, Lange in the last couple of years, but have to say AP and the greys above have been a revelation to say the least!

[Booth9999]

What is this “Juice” and how do I get some?

[dmash]

Watch only 15202st now going for 59.5 unsold. Wow it’s really happening and coming back down to normality. As the jumbo was the pinnacle of hype.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by dmash

Watch only 15202st now going for 59.5 unsold. Wow it’s really happening and coming back down to normality. As the jumbo was the pinnacle of hype.

Where please? Also hopefully it's UK seller based! Thanks in advance.

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by dmash

Watch only 15202st now going for 59.5 unsold. Wow it’s really happening and coming back down to normality. As the jumbo was the pinnacle of hype.

I truly mean this with all due respect, but at least provide the context. That is a 7 year old naked watch with 4 links missing and has only been listed for an hour. As a collector I have zero interest in that piece, even at 30k I wouldn’t be buying. But yeah prices are dropping no doubt.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by APWhale

I truly mean this with all due respect, but at least provide the context. That is a 7 year old naked watch with 4 links missing and has only been listed for an hour. As a collector I have zero interest in that piece, even at 30k I wouldn’t be buying. But yeah prices are dropping no doubt.

Whale, why wouldn't you be interested (genuinely curious)? Can't you just buy the extra links and get the paperwork from AP?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by APWhale

I truly mean this with all due respect, but at least provide the context. That is a 7 year old naked watch with 4 links missing and has only been listed for an hour. As a collector I have zero interest in that piece, even at 30k I wouldn’t be buying. But yeah prices are dropping no doubt.

I also mean this with respect, but I clearly said ‘watch only’. Literally the first words of the post if you read it. The only thing you could say I left out is the links, which on a stainless piece is wholly not a big deal whatsoever. I never implied new full set, and the fact is that naked examples were going for 6 figures months ago. The drop is real. He also posted it last month for $69500 and it couldn’t sell, so he obviously hasn’t gotten any bites remotely close. I didn’t post that as a deal I would buy, I posted as a reference.

As for the time frame, legit MODA deals are gone within 20-30 mins, how long have you been a part of that group?

EDIT- now 2 hours, unsold.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by psm11

Whale, why wouldn't you be interested (genuinely curious)? Can't you just buy the extra links and get the paperwork from AP?

It’s literally not a big deal at all if you’re a wearer and not a collector. If buying used AP I’d always factor in a service into your offer. Send it in immediately upon receiving.

Then

1- you ensure everything is tip top
2- you get service papers ensuring everything is authentic


ANY reputable seller has a refund policy if you sent in a piece and anything was deemed not authentic. Way too many newer guys are caught up in the ‘new/pristine less than a few months old to purchase’ mentality and I hope it doesn’t carry on if market cools. That was the most fun deals 10 years ago. Trading watches that you’ve had in rotation for 5-10 years with another guy. Too much focus on $$$$$ and looking perfect nowadays. BUT, it is understandable as you can’t currently find used deals like you used to. No way I’d pay MSRP or more for a used piece.


Anyways just my 2c.

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by dmash

I also mean this with respect, but I clearly said ‘watch only’. Literally the first words of the post if you read it. The only thing you could say I left out is the links, which on a stainless piece is wholly not a big deal whatsoever. I never implied new full set, and the fact is that naked examples were going for 6 figures months ago. The drop is real.

As for the time frame, legit MODA deals are gone within 20-30 mins, how long have you been a part of that group?

EDIT- now 2 hours, unsold.

Yes you did. I guess it just doesn’t sound so bad when you hear about a watch only deal. But upon seeing the actual listing yeah I wouldn’t touch that watch. The way you made it sound it could have been an almost new 2021 watch without card like many others on MODA for reasons we all know, and without a box however that could be added for a few hundred $. I’ve been on MODA since the beginning of the year and follow listings daily as you do. And seeing as it still hasn’t sold, it appears others aren’t too keen on buying this piece either.

Not arguing though as I agree prices are coming down and may continue further. However, based on my observations those pieces that shot up the highest are also the ones retracing the most. Sure ROOs may be trading near or below MSRP but the drop has been way less drastic than other Rolex/AP/Patek models. It is actually normal price action and we will likely stabilize somewhere around pre Covid levels before prices can evolve more naturally.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by APWhale

Yes you did. I guess it just doesn’t sound so bad when you hear about a watch only deal. But upon seeing the actual listing yeah I wouldn’t touch that watch. The way you made it sound it could have been an almost new 2021 watch without card like many others on MODA for reasons we all know, and without a box however that could be added for a few hundred $. I’ve been on MODA since the beginning of the year. And seeing as it still hasn’t sold, it appears others aren’t too keen on buying this piece either.

Not arguing though as I agree prices are coming down and may continue further. However, based on my observations those pieces that shot up the highest are also the ones retracing the most. Sure ROOs may be trading near or below MSRP but the drop has been way less drastic than other Rolex/AP/Patek models. It is actually normal price action and we will likely stabilize somewhere around pre Covid levels before prices can evolve more naturally.

You want to be most mind blown with MODA. There’s listings from 4 years ago where people are arguing that a like new full set 15202st is even worth $30k.

People have really become disillusioned at what reality could reset back to here (not saying you, I mean myself, everybody honestly). MSRP on Steel will always be relatively safe but some guys who paid 3, 4, 5x over as an ‘investment’…..man this could be a huge deal for their future if they’re not pulling down major money.

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by psm11

Whale, why wouldn't you be interested (genuinely curious)? Can't you just buy the extra links and get the paperwork from AP?

You could yeah and there would be nothing wrong with doing that. However I personally will only buy direct retail if a piece is still in production however hard it may be to acquire. As for discontinued pieces, I would rather wait for the opportunity to buy from an example from the first owner. Just not keen on the idea of buying a piece that’s been traded around from dealer to dealer. That may be just me being particular. However I acknowledge that good deals are out there on dealer groups if a bargain is all you’re hunting for.

[77T]

There will be a correction in the resale marketplace across the board methinks. Is this the start of that steady decline in prices? Time will tell - it could also be a momentary dip.

Slumps, recessions, crashes, and depressions start with erosion - however some never materialize due to other unseen factors.

So, for now, both sides of this debate that has been bubbling along for months are “right” until we see an actual, full-on, correction.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[mspeed76]

never understood the hype over a stainless royal oak

ceramic, yes.. but for that price I'd go RM any day

[mickyd329]

I don't think the price corrections are over TBH. I think secondary watch prices will get back to pre-Covid levels in the near future. The only wild card being China reopening from their lockdowns and possibly demand coming back there. Maybe prices stabilize when that happens.

At the same time, I'm in the hobby for my passion for watches, so I've never really cared much of what the secondary prices have done. Just like exotic cars, I'll usually lose $$ on most buys and once in a while have it appreciate if allocated a special model. I'm perfectly ok with that and keep the same approach with my watch hobby.

I just hope we can someday all get back to talking about the watches like we used to on this forum.