5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m totally of the opposite opinion, the piece is an entry level piece all day everyday and customers and AD’s need it in the catalog as such. It simply isn’t a $100k watch whatever the current market might think. It is a steel piece with a base Patek movement, super comfy and great looking just like lots of other pieces. It needs to continue to be sold and enjoyed as such and I’m sure it will be.

Hey, I hope you're right, but it doesn't make sense to me that PP would cancel the 5711 simply to reissue it as a similar model with a few upgrades and a modestly increased price. I can only rationalize this as a move to grab the lost margin between MSRP and Grey Market prices.
In any case, I view this as a great story, as watch stories go, and can't wait to see the next move.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m totally of the opposite opinion, the piece is an entry level piece all day everyday and customers and AD’s need it in the catalog as such. It simply isn’t a $100k watch whatever the current market might think. It is a steel piece with a base Patek movement, super comfy and great looking just like lots of other pieces. It needs to continue to be sold and enjoyed as such and I’m sure it will be.

No room for logic here Russell. Don’t waste your time lol

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Hey, I hope you're right, but it doesn't make sense to me that PP would cancel the 5711 simply to reissue it as a similar model with a few upgrades and a modestly increased price. I can only rationalize this as a move to grab the lost margin between MSRP and Grey Market prices.
In any case, I view this as a great story, as watch stories go, and can't wait to see the next move.

Surely the watch market is full of exactly this, discontinued model replaced by very similar, slightly more expensive and improved(sometimes) model. Patek can’t go after the ‘lost’ margin you mention since it doesn’t exist - no one will buy a base 5711 replacement from an AD at a stupid price, this nonsense will always be the preserve of the current hyped watch on the secondary market. No one will want only PM Nautilus models, there has to be the SS version to sit alongside them in the collection.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GB-man

No room for logic here Russell. Don’t waste your time lol

So, what you're saying is that if Patek chooses not to reissue a stainless steel revision of the 5711 at a modestly higher price, then they are being illogical?

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m totally of the opposite opinion, the piece is an entry level piece all day everyday and customers and AD’s need it in the catalog as such. It simply isn’t a $100k watch whatever the current market might think. It is a steel piece with a base Patek movement, super comfy and great looking just like lots of other pieces. It needs to continue to be sold and enjoyed as such and I’m sure it will be.

I would agree it’s was available for “everyday customers”, but it is not and has not been for many years. I would agree, it would be a good introduction for collectors new to the brand, but it’s only available for VIP’s and those with previous history. The only thing “entry level” about the 5711 is the price, but it’s not the cheapest steel sports Patek.

Just because it is steel and the cheapest Nautilus in the range does not make it entry level, or for every day customers or for those who can’t afford gold or complications and it is not marketed by Patek as that. It was just one of the options and nothing more.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Surely the watch market is full of exactly this, discontinued model replaced by very similar, slightly more expensive and improved(sometimes) model. Patek can’t go after the ‘lost’ margin you mention since it doesn’t exist - no one will buy a base 5711 replacement from an AD at a stupid price, this nonsense will always be the preserve of the current hyped watch on the secondary market. No one will want only PM Nautilus models, there has to be the SS version to sit alongside them in the collection.

Do you think that if Patek continued to produce the 5711/1A exactly as it is today but simply raised the price to $65K, no one would buy it?

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Do you think that if Patek continued to produce the 5711/1A exactly as it is today but simply raised the price to $65K, no one would buy it?

100% agree.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Surely the watch market is full of exactly this, discontinued model replaced by very similar, slightly more expensive and improved(sometimes) model. Patek can’t go after the ‘lost’ margin you mention since it doesn’t exist - no one will buy a base 5711 replacement from an AD at a stupid price, this nonsense will always be the preserve of the current hyped watch on the secondary market. No one will want only PM Nautilus models, there has to be the SS version to sit alongside them in the collection.

I can see the argument for this, but I am not sure business logic will define the decision. Mr. Stern is apparently worried about the company following AP into the sport-watch cul-de-sac, and I would not put it past a private company to amputate the leg to save the body.

There is a logic to releasing less iconic and recognisable models in steel as the new entry level (5212, Aquanaut, some new smart-casual series), while maintaining the Nautilus as a higher value PM-only range. They’ll sell every one they produce anyway, while capturing higher margins and maintaining its allure. Then, when the ss hype has died down, they could reconsider...

It may not make short-term business-school sense, but there is long-term logic there.

Let’s see how they proceed.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by GB-man

No room for logic here Russell. Don’t waste your time lol

Something needs to be sold to fill that gap. It doesn’t need to be the Nautilus.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I can see the argument for this, but I am not sure business logic will define the decision. Mr. Stern is apparently worried about the company following AP into the sport-watch cul-de-sac, and I would not put it past a private company to amputate the leg to save the body.

There is a logic to releasing less iconic and recognisable models in steel as the new entry level (5212, Aquanaut, some new smart-casual series), while maintaining the Nautilus as a higher value PM-only range. They’ll sell every one they produce anyway, while holding on to a higher proportion of the profits and maintaining its allure. Then, when the ss hype has died down, they could reconsider...

It may not make short-term business-school sense, but there is long-term logic there.

Let’s see how they proceed.

100% agree again.

It would be nice to retain the base date only model in steel, just as a nod to the past and Mr Genta. It’s the ONLY reason I paid retail for a steel blue 5711, and the ONLY reason I am interested in a RO jumbo, like with ALL art the price is irrelevant.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by cascavel

So, what you're saying is that if Patek chooses not to reissue a stainless steel revision of the 5711 at a modestly higher price, then they are being illogical?

Yes and I’ll put my money where my mouth is.

Steel is a huge part of the nautilus identity. I don’t believe for one second that TS doesn’t love the watch or the attention it’s brought Patek.

Re: him worried about them becoming AP that’s almost a joke at this point. At this rate in a few years AP is going to surpass Patek in sales. Patek isn’t even remotely competitive with AP in the sports segment. Also AP will be selling everything direct which is a competitive advantage in the luxury market.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Yes and I’ll put my money where my mouth is.

Steel is a huge part of the nautilus identity. I don’t believe for one second that TS doesn’t love the watch or the attention it’s brought Patek.

Re: him worried about them becoming AP that’s almost a joke at this point. At this rate in a few years AP is going to surpass Patek in sales. Patek isn’t even remotely competitive with AP in the sports segment. Also AP will be selling everything direct which is a competitive advantage in the luxury market.

Just want to point out that AP only has sports watches as RO and ROO are probably 80% of its sales. When was the last time we saw someone post a picture of an AP dress watch I inquired about a reMaster01 about one year ago and was told that it is a limited edition reserved only for their best clients. About a month ago, I was contacted by two boutiques offering me the watch. I have never made any purchase at one of them. So I guess their most important clients are not interested.

As for AP direct sales, it is not true at all as most of the AP boutiques are not owned directly by AP but similar to the single brand Rolex stores which are owned by an AD who is willing to invest in order to keep the dealership. I am seeing Patek is also moving in a similar direction as a lot of the ADs are converting to the Tiffany style store-in-store format.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Interesting. I would guess that for every 100 Daytonas I've seen on people I've seen one Nautilus, not just 5711s. Probably 500:1 for the Submariner. Granted, there are less expensive watches that are rarer, for instance, I've never seen anyone wearing a JLC Deep Sea Chronograph or an Omega Snoopy.
As far as the appeal of wearing something expensive goes, this is an example of what huge cowards some men are. Women wander around with large diamonds prominently displayed on their fingers without batting an eye and yet it seems as if a lot of men will only consider wearing an expensive watch at home, in the bathroom with the door locked. What's up with that?

I’m not afraid of wearing something expensive - and I don’t mean rare for the sake of rare (like the snoopy thing) - I mean like rare because it has intrinsic quality that makes it uncommon. Either a crisp vintage example or like an fp Journe for example.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Do you think that if Patek continued to produce the 5711/1A exactly as it is today but simply raised the price to $65K, no one would buy it?

Patek are shrewd, they know the game. They would not of endangered the Nautilus family by gouging the market with ill advised massive price hikes now just because currently they probably could still sell the 5711 at twice retail - 20% a few years back was pushing the boundaries of what is reasonable. A massive price hike would of upset a great many people who were inline for a 5711 or considering such a purchase and turned them off the brand, not to mention pricing it well above any reasonable price point for such a piece. This is why my personal belief is a direct replacement is coming sooner rather than later, Patek needs a SS sports range on bracelet in addition to the rubber strap Aquanaut range - the two are not interchangeable. Not replacing the piece makes no commercial sense, they can already sell all the PM sports pieces they make, SS is the DNA of Nautilus. They know the hype won’t last forever and the long term brand survival is what counts at the end of the day.

[francoamerican]

In your pricing model that predicts this price, where does - 5740g land? Because I’m probably going to pick up a 5740g for 220k before a 5711a at 175k

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

In your pricing model that predicts this price, where does - 5740g land? Because I’m probably going to pick up a 5740g for 220k before a 5711a at 175k

Anyone who would pay 220k for 1 watch would surely pay 395k for 2. Why not add both to your rotation.

[ts3]

I don't get why they'd make a splash announcing the retirement of 5711/1A if they are planning to replace it with a new entry-level SS Nautilus any time soon. Why make separate announcements in this case (old one out, new one in)? Doubling the price for a potential replacement in SS to USD 65k makes even less sense. It would make Patek look incredibly greedy and put off customers.

Instead I continue to expect a replacement in WG and/or YG rather than SS (after the limited farewell edition of 5711), reasonably priced some 20% above 5711/1R (some 65k = twice the price of 5711/1A). This would raise the barriers to entry rather than fuel the hype. At the same time it would allow Patek to capture a lot more profit per watch sold.

We may not find out for a while though. They'll probably first work through the limited farewell edition of 5711 itself.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by ts3

I don't get why they'd make a splash announcing the retirement of 5711/1A if they are planning to replace it with a new entry-level SS Nautilus any time soon. Why make separate announcements in this case (old one out, new one in)? Doubling the price for a potential replacement in SS to USD 65k makes even less sense. It would make Patek look incredibly greedy and put off customers.

Instead I continue to expect a replacement in WG and/or YG rather than SS (after the limited farewell edition of 5711), reasonably priced some 20% above 5711/1R (some 65k = twice the price of 5711/1A). This would raise the barriers to entry rather than fuel the hype. At the same time it would allow Patek to capture a lot more profit per watch sold.

We may not find out for a while though. They'll probably first work through the limited farewell edition of 5711 itself.

I am in 100% agreement here. It will be interesting to see how this plays out but my money is on your exact scenario with one exception; the WG or YG (excellent guess for yellow gold, I hadn't thought of that) is priced above $100K.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by ts3

I don't get why they'd make a splash announcing the retirement of 5711/1A if they are planning to replace it with a new entry-level SS Nautilus any time soon.

No reason except Patek ALWAYS announces discontinued models before announcing new models.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Russell996

No reason except Patek ALWAYS announces discontinued models before announcing new models.

Russell stop raining on the 5711 moonshot parade


it’s just good communication with their AD network so they can plan customer orders accordingly etc

You don’t want them to have open orders for watches that are no longer in production.

Also it gives buyers on the fence a fair warning. Buy now if it’s something you have to have.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Russell996

No reason except Patek ALWAYS announces discontinued models before announcing new models.

Indeed.

Literally ~2 months before, consistently.

To your point, though, they "quietly" announce it to ADs, etc. They don't announce it in a public interview by the CEO (*cough* AP).

[GreenLantern]

Speaking of moonshots...

I'm going to wager that I can do an equal trade of a 5711/1A for a Greubel Forsey Double Tourbillon soon.

TO THE MOON.

*sigh*

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by ts3

I don't get why they'd make a splash announcing the retirement of 5711/1A if they are planning to replace it with a new entry-level SS Nautilus any time soon. Why make separate announcements in this case (old one out, new one in)?

Indeed, and he made 2 separate interviews. Below are some excerpts from a Thierry Stern's NYT interview via an article dated 10 Feb 2021 (emphasis below all mine) ~ https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/f...ry-stern.html?

"In 2019, at Baselworld, I said that I thought there were too many Nautiluses out there. Closing out the Ref. 5711 was on my mind then. And when I took the decision in 2019, we knew already what would come next."

"Stopping the Nautilus was an important decision, but we have a plan. The replacement to the Ref. 5711 will be quite major. It will be better than the Ref. 5711.

But I will not say today in what metal or if it will be in steel. It will be something else, very close, and logical.

It is like Christmas. You don’t want to know your gift before it’s Christmas, do you?"

"We are doing this for our clients who already own a Patek Philippe and to protect our brand from becoming too commercial. I can continue to make this fantastic product, or sell 10 times more of them. But I am not working for numbers. I am protecting the company for the future, for my children.

This is an opportunity to teach a lesson to my kids, who are the first ones to say, “Dad, are you crazy?” They have to learn, just as my father taught me: When you have a fantastic brand like Patek, you have to protect the brand and not just one product."

And his interview with with Swiss newspaper Neuen Zürcher Zeitung, also on 10 Feb 2021 ~ https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/patek-...9?reduced=true

"The interview continues on the topic of stainless steel: “I don’t want us to have more than a third steel watches. The steel Nautilus makes up a big part of that quota, and I don’t like that... “We had to work very hard to get into the gold and platinum league, and that’s where we should stay.” Years ago, his father told him to, “leave these materials (carbon and titanium) to Hublot and the others, they do a good job“. So, if nothing is clear about the next Nautilus to be released, it sounds pretty clear that precious metals will definitely be an option to consider."

==========

We will know what is the metal in the 6711 soon but based on my reading of both interviews, I get the impression it will be from the "gold and platinum league". Titanium is out although I think that one is kind of logical.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Russell996

No reason except Patek ALWAYS announces discontinued models before announcing new models.

Originally Posted by GB-man

Russell stop raining on the 5711 moonshot parade


it’s just good communication with their AD network so they can plan customer orders accordingly etc

You don’t want them to have open orders for watches that are no longer in production.

Also it gives buyers on the fence a fair warning. Buy now if it’s something you have to have.

Sure.

The point was that in light of TS having explained the discontinuation of 5711/1A at length in several interviews (vs having the watch go quietly via the run-out list per usual) I'd be surprised if we see an updated entry-level SS Nautilus any time soon.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

We will know what is the metal in the 6711 soon but based on my reading of both interviews, I get the impression it will be from the "gold and platinum league". Titanium is out although I think that one is kind of logical.

I would be very surprised if they got rid of their entry level steel model but reading again what he said your conclusion appears to be on pretty solid ground.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by ragsk

I would be very surprised if they got rid of their entry level steel model but reading again what he said your conclusion appears to be on pretty solid ground.

I agree, although reading the quote he also said “The replacement to the Ref. 5711 will be quite major. It will be better than the Ref. 5711”.

I am not sure what you guy’s think “quite major” and “better” are, but to me it sounds like the replacement will not just be the “same entry level model in steel“ at a higher price or just 1mm bigger with thinner lugs and a tapering bracelet. Bearing in mind he never thought the new style dial or even the new hacking seconds movement was worth mentioning.

I don’t know what it will be but I for one am really looking forward to seeing it, although I will not be putting myself forward for it. I have far too many watches that are just a different colour or same watch different movement that get no wrist time.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by ts3

I don't get why they'd make a splash announcing the retirement of 5711/1A if they are planning to replace it with a new entry-level SS Nautilus any time soon. Why make separate announcements in this case (old one out, new one in)? Doubling the price for a potential replacement in SS to USD 65k makes even less sense. It would make Patek look incredibly greedy and put off customers.

Instead I continue to expect a replacement in WG and/or YG rather than SS (after the limited farewell edition of 5711), reasonably priced some 20% above 5711/1R (some 65k = twice the price of 5711/1A). This would raise the barriers to entry rather than fuel the hype. At the same time it would allow Patek to capture a lot more profit per watch sold.

We may not find out for a while though. They'll probably first work through the limited farewell edition of 5711 itself.

Originally Posted by cascavel

I am in 100% agreement here. It will be interesting to see how this plays out but my money is on your exact scenario with one exception; the WG or YG (excellent guess for yellow gold, I hadn't thought of that) is priced above $100K.

This is full of logic.

[GreenLantern]

I've been hoping for a 5711/1J for a long time now... I should say, 6711/1J now.

Consider me all over it if/when they finally drop a YG variant.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by bonsai-man

I agree, although reading the quote he also said “The replacement to the Ref. 5711 will be quite major. It will be better than the Ref. 5711”.

I am not sure what you guy’s think “quite major” and “better” are, but to me it sounds like the replacement will not just be the “same entry level model in steel“ at a higher price or just 1mm bigger with thinner lugs and a tapering bracelet. Bearing in mind he never thought the new style dial or even the new hacking seconds movement was worth mentioning.

I don’t know what it will be but I for one am really looking forward to seeing it, although I will not be putting myself forward for it. I have far too many watches that are just a different colour or same watch different movement that get no wrist time.

I don't take better to mean metal or size, I would think he means in horological terms so there may even be a new SS model with a new function or a new combination of functions, or slimmer movement and case, or a more adjustable clasp or even, modern Heaven preserve us, easy strap interchangeability.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by AK797

I don't take better to mean metal or size, I would think he means in horological terms so there may even be a new SS model with a new function or a new combination of functions, or slimmer movement and case, or a more adjustable clasp or even, modern Heaven preserve us, easy strap interchangeability.

the latter would be the end of all days.