Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[psm11]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

I don't think the price corrections are over TBH. I think secondary watch prices will get back to pre-Covid levels in the near future. The only wild card being China reopening from their lockdowns and possibly demand coming back there. Maybe prices stabilize when that happens.

At the same time, I'm in the hobby for my passion for watches, so I've never really cared much of what the secondary prices have done. Just like exotic cars, I'll usually lose $$ on most buys and once in a while have it appreciate if allocated a special model. I'm perfectly ok with that and keep the same approach with my watch hobby.

I just hope we can someday all get back to talking about the watches like we used to on this forum.

Well said! I have lusted for an AP since I was about 9 years old and saw Arnold's ROO in End of Days. I don't care if I lose all the money I put into it, I just want to wear the hell out of it and enjoy it. I think about joy it brings me to admire my lower end pieces (Omega, Panerai, etc) when I wear them and can't imagine the feeling I will get when I finally get a RO on the wrist to call my own.

Will be a great day if all the watch "investment" folks, flippers, show offs, etc disappear from the hobby. ZERO sympathy for any of them if they lose their shirt on these "investments."

[conkers]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

I just hope we can someday all get back to talking about the watches like we used to on this forum.

A lovely sentiment but sadly unlikely. A real shame for sure.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by conkers

A lovely sentiment but sadly unlikely. A real shame for sure.

That's why the Conkers Popup Museum is so essential. Cue movie trailer: "not the museum we deserved but the museum we needed"

PP sub forum trend for day: awesome new releases

@mickyd329 you're probably right. But on that subject itself, it does feel like the PP releases took watches and made them better. AP felt like they just made it slightly different, some better, some different like my oft analogy of porsche design language. They could have made it perfect and everyone happy, but instead it was like a laterial design shift instead of true improvement almost everyone likes that Rolex and PP have done for 2 years. Oh well.

I think I'll soon be a 'vintage' AP collector buying the last two eras.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

I don't think the price corrections are over TBH. I think secondary watch prices will get back to pre-Covid levels in the near future. The only wild card being China reopening from their lockdowns and possibly demand coming back there. Maybe prices stabilize when that happens.

At the same time, I'm in the hobby for my passion for watches, so I've never really cared much of what the secondary prices have done. Just like exotic cars, I'll usually lose $$ on most buys and once in a while have it appreciate if allocated a special model. I'm perfectly ok with that and keep the same approach with my watch hobby.

I just hope we can someday all get back to talking about the watches like we used to on this forum.

I agree that we are not at the bottom. It’s clear as day actually - prices trending down with no support of a bottom. I’d also be skeptical of the China argument. Their economy is in shambles, and looking at Hong Kong, the grey market kept falling after a reopening.

I look forward to the days where one would be happy if you walk out the AD and your piece holds value. A day where all these fly by night flippers are out. I’m confident we’ll get there - the economy is not heating up anytime soon.

[dmash]

New black Daytona listed as auction

Is bumped to $26k within 20 mins

Yet others, new condition, were listed for ~26k as a regular listing, and not a single taker/still unsold

Further proof the auctions are a complete lie

[Reign]

Originally Posted by dmash

New black Daytona listed as auction

Is bumped to $26k within 20 mins

Yet others, new condition, were listed for ~26k as a regular listing, and not a single taker/still unsold

Further proof the auctions are a complete lie

They’ve always been a lie for mass produced modern pieces


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[ivan w]

check on ROO 3126 enhancement

[conkers]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

That's why the Conkers Popup Museum is so essential. Cue movie trailer: "not the museum we deserved but the museum we needed"

[Marast-66]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Bravo.


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[GW44]

Originally Posted by conkers

And to think I knew you before you had such fame Roger

[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by Marast-66

Bravo.


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Wait until people who paid less for the watches when the retail prices were much less start selling for prices close to the new retail prices. thats when the fun begins.

[SMD]

Most amazing thing about this thread — people apparently still use Facebook!

[psm11]

Originally Posted by SMD

Most amazing thing about this thread — people apparently still use Facebook!

HAHAHA great call! I sent a pic of a watch on MODA to a friend who completely ignored the watch and instead focused on the fact that I was using my computer to access Facebook. I guess that is a faux pas these days. App only lol.

[pav333hp]

Originally Posted by SMD

Most amazing thing about this thread — people apparently still use Facebook!

I actually use FB a lot, specifically for groups - cars, watches, events, etc. I find them much more interesting and engaging to forums tbh. Outside of watches, I'm also a car enthusiast, so part of several car groups on FB and they are really good.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by pav333hp

I actually use FB a lot, specifically for groups - cars, watches, events, etc. I find them much more interesting and engaging to forums tbh. Outside of watches, I'm also a car enthusiast, so part of several car groups on FB and they are really good.

FB is and has been the most active social media platform in the US (and the world) for years*. This is no surprise whatsoever, not sure why anybody would think it’s weird to use Facebook

*Statistical fact, not my opinion

[Jp28]

On FB point, I think the ‘thing’ is that if you use it you are of a certain age (sort of 30+). Under that age and down to 20 ish it is IG and below 20 it is more tik tok. All approx of course but you get the idea. My daughter is clear that FB is only for ‘old people’…….

[conkers]

Originally Posted by GW44

And to think I knew you before you had such fame Roger

Yes indeed my friend. Must say I have a much more stressed and fun-free life than in the good old days when we all had more carefree existences. Doesn’t feel like progress to me! Even being a watch collector has become stressful.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by APWhale

Yes you did. I guess it just doesn’t sound so bad when you hear about a watch only deal. But upon seeing the actual listing yeah I wouldn’t touch that watch. The way you made it sound it could have been an almost new 2021 watch without card like many others on MODA for reasons we all know, and without a box however that could be added for a few hundred $. I’ve been on MODA since the beginning of the year and follow listings daily as you do. And seeing as it still hasn’t sold, it appears others aren’t too keen on buying this piece either.

Not arguing though as I agree prices are coming down and may continue further. However, based on my observations those pieces that shot up the highest are also the ones retracing the most. Sure ROOs may be trading near or below MSRP but the drop has been way less drastic than other Rolex/AP/Patek models. It is actually normal price action and we will likely stabilize somewhere around pre Covid levels before prices can evolve more naturally.

You shouldn't waste your time honestly.....He has an agenda he is trying to push and he posts very biased info little bits in an attempt to attempt to prove it. It's one thing to talk about a 15500 or a gold piece now he is claiming the 15202st is dropping.

This is 100% BS. As you pointed out no one wants to touch naked 7 year old watch. Probably in crap condition as well. The 15202 is now discontinued and it's impossible for most to get a 16202.

Next I'm going to hear the 5711 is 60k....

[SMD]

Originally Posted by 911AP

You shouldn't waste your time honestly.....He has an agenda he is trying to push and he posts very biased info little bits in an attempt to attempt to prove it. It's one thing to talk about a 15500 or a gold piece now he is claiming the 15202st is dropping.

This is 100% BS. As you pointed out no one wants to touch naked 7 year old watch. Probably in crap condition as well. The 15202 is now discontinued and it's impossible for most to get a 16202.

Next I'm going to hear the 5711 is 60k....

All prices are down, as are all asset classes. No sense arguing that point. But no matter how much they drop I suspect some of the more prolific posters in here still won’t buy. Always a bridesmaid …

[911AP]

Originally Posted by SMD

All prices are down, as are all asset classes. No sense arguing that point. But no matter how much they drop I suspect some of the more prolific posters in here still won’t buy. Always a bridesmaid …

100% prices are down. But he's desperately fighting for all of them to essentially be at retail when they aren't.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SMD

All prices are down, as are all asset classes. No sense arguing that point. But no matter how much they drop I suspect some of the more prolific posters in here still won’t buy. Always a bridesmaid …

yeah people wanted a drop and they got 50% on some models and retail on others, most seem to still be waiting longer and any threads about going grey are met with responses of "things will get worse". if you're not buying at the equivalent of msrp+tax or less after the prices we've seen then nothing will ever be low enough

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

You shouldn't waste your time honestly.....He has an agenda he is trying to push and he posts very biased info little bits in an attempt to attempt to prove it. It's one thing to talk about a 15500 or a gold piece now he is claiming the 15202st is dropping.

This is 100% BS. As you pointed out no one wants to touch naked 7 year old watch. Probably in crap condition as well. The 15202 is now discontinued and it's impossible for most to get a 16202.

Next I'm going to hear the 5711 is 60k....

Originally Posted by 911AP

100% prices are down. But he's desperately fighting for all of them to essentially be at retail when they aren't.

Goes from agreeing, to now back to battling. I think you're just salty I called you out on your proclaimed 'allocations' while simultaneously flipping so many pieces. Either that or you're backpack flipping yourself as the only desperation seems how you're grasping at straws to claim the market is unchanged. There's not a single individual who agrees with you about any opinion you have, yet mine is backed with data and is simply factual.

I'm going to cease responding to you after this. I honestly think you're a bit off you're rocker at this point. Not to mention everything you say kind of reeks as untruthful to me (and others).

Carry on though buddy, have a good one

[dmash]

Originally Posted by SMD

But no matter how much they drop I suspect some of the more prolific posters in here still won’t buy. Always a bridesmaid …

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah people wanted a drop and they got 50% on some models and retail on others, most seem to still be waiting longer and any threads about going grey are met with responses of "things will get worse". if you're not buying at the equivalent of msrp+tax or less after the prices we've seen then nothing will ever be low enough

Yeah I partially agree. Only caveat is somebody like me, I've never bought grey unless it's at discount. Why would I buy grey instead of AD if I'm paying the same price? Just makes no sense to me personally, rather wait a few extra months for the AD to ring instead as obviously demand is down at that point.

I'm wholly in agreement though that there's a lot of dudes across TRF/IG/internet who are 'waiting for the drop to MSRP' to then only realize they didn't even like the watch that much, they just liked the *idea* of the watch because it was hyped and instantly made them money. Tons of guys on the green Sub, Pepsi GMT train would have never touched that piece 5 years ago. There's also tons of guys who claim the Jumbo is 'their grail' who would have claimed it was an overpriced two hander which felt dainty before it was bringing 2-4x MSRP. Insane how the masses flipped on that one.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I partially agree. Only caveat is somebody like me, I've never bought grey unless it's at discount. Why would I buy grey instead of AD if I'm paying the same price? Just makes no sense to me personally, rather wait a few extra months for the AD to ring instead as obviously demand is down at that point.

I'm wholly in agreement though that there's a lot of dudes across TRF/IG/internet who are 'waiting for the drop to MSRP' to then only realize they didn't even like the watch that much, they just liked the *idea* of the watch because it was hyped and instantly made them money. Tons of guys on the green Sub, Pepsi GMT train would have never touched that piece 5 years ago. There's also tons of guys who claim the Jumbo is 'their grail' who would have claimed it was an overpriced two hander which felt dainty before it was bringing 2-4x MSRP. Insane how the masses flipped on that one.

yeah i agree, hype played a huge role in people wanting a watch and now we're seeing who really wants them. people that were gladly buying/wanting daytonas for 50k are nowhere to be found when its now somewhere in the 28-low 30s range. i'm not in the market for anything right now but my logic is that things so far don't seem any better at ADs and in reality there's no shame in paying msrp because it's msrp. i know watches were had at discounts back then but that was really mostly by people who went out there and negotiated, which i think was a small group of people mostly on here. most people weren't even thinking of asking about discounts and big ADs were never ones to give much

my first rolex was a datejust back in 2017 and i paid full retail for it before coming on here and realizing i could've gotten it for 30% less lol. eventually was able to get a PM piece at around 25% off following that but would've been fine paying close to retail as i was ready to do so. most people don't get discounts on cars either and take a hit on that but it wasn't a problem, it only seems to be a problem when it comes to watches, or rolexes more specifically, since tons of people are buying omegas and others at retail and taking a bath on them without a care

all that's happened this year that got us to this point has been such a huge blow for me that i don't really think it's right to be splurging on watches now. personally just trying to stay low, get some cash and average into the markets and hopefully live to see the other side and splurge then. i have an average salary and was able to be stupid because of investments which is why i won't get to benefit from the watch bubble bursting because it comes at the cost of everything else collapsing (something i've said from the beginning when people were begging for the bubble to pop). it helps when i don't actually want anything though, but then again if daytonas drop to 20 or below i might have to move around some stuff and get one lol

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I partially agree. Only caveat is somebody like me, I've never bought grey unless it's at discount. Why would I buy grey instead of AD if I'm paying the same price? Just makes no sense to me personally, rather wait a few extra months for the AD to ring instead as obviously demand is down at that point.

I'm wholly in agreement though that there's a lot of dudes across TRF/IG/internet who are 'waiting for the drop to MSRP' to then only realize they didn't even like the watch that much, they just liked the *idea* of the watch because it was hyped and instantly made them money. Tons of guys on the green Sub, Pepsi GMT train would have never touched that piece 5 years ago. There's also tons of guys who claim the Jumbo is 'their grail' who would have claimed it was an overpriced two hander which felt dainty before it was bringing 2-4x MSRP. Insane how the masses flipped on that one.

I liked the idea of a PQ like I like the idea of a Ferrari. It’s all fun and games and internet keyboard jockeying until it’s time to pay the service invoice! Back to apple watches!

[Mini2]

I need some popcorn for this topic haha

[GW44]

The sooner this thread is locked, or just goes away the better in my view

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by GW44

The sooner this thread is locked, or just goes away the better in my view

Pull up a chair and get your feet up

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by GW44

The sooner this thread is locked, or just goes away the better in my view

Could I ask you why you would care? If this topic is not of interest to you, it would seem the thread could be quite easily avoided by not clicking on it?

I, for once, find the insights from markets locked to me such as MODA, or Hong Kong, of great interest.

[thekman]

Originally Posted by Mercutio

Could I ask you why you would care? If this topic is not of interest to you, it would seem the thread could be quite easily avoided by not clicking on it?

I, for once, find the insights from markets locked to me such as MODA, or Hong Kong, of great interest.

This! It's always the same people. Really easy to avoid 1 thread about the market. Clearly people want to talk about this. If someone doesn't share that sentiment it's very easy to avoid it just like I avoid many other threads that may not seem interesting to me.