Prices not dropping?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

It's an interesting subject, and rarely discussed on TRF because it's against the rules. I'm also a fan of the whole truth, rather than parts of it.

So rarely discussed and against the rules we have multiple threads per day!

[thenewrick]

Ignore auction results and C24 prices they’re like saying the average price for lunch is $175 because that’s how much it costs Kanye to have his assistant bring him an organic salad from his home chef in the main house.

For everyday buyers and sellers the real price is somewhere around 50% less than auction results and 30% less than C24 listings. That’s a safe estimate to go by.

So if you see a Panda at $50k on DSW or C24 it’s probably available to purchase for about $35k. If you see a watch auction for $100k, it’s probably available to purchase for around $50k.

No skin in the game just truth. Won’t be buying or selling myself but there’s definitely a lot of misinformation floating around.

There will always people clutching their collectibles and never drop prices. In the car world we call those people the ,”I know what I have” crowd. And they will never accept reality. For them it’s a belief system and not worth arguing.

Just skip over the believers and go with the flow.

[rmwill]

Yes. Very true. On C24 private sellers are required to have the watch and provide proof of ownership. I do use it to buy and sell. However any notion that it provides good analytical sales data is absurd.

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

It is the dirty secret of many industries/businesses requiring high capital. First you sell what you do not own, then you try to find what you sold...

[Goin2drt]

[QUOTE=thenewrick;12159042definitely a lot of misinformation floating around.
[/QUOTE]

I would agree. To include your post. Yours is also just an opinion with zero facts and misinformation.

Plenty of conjecture. People can do whatever the hell they want with their money, try to make good investments, invest in whatever they want. Does not matter to me.

[thenewrick]

Yep everything here is an opinion. Arguing with believers is pointless. But I don’t mind being confident in my opinion. So far all my predictions have come true and I’ve done very well. I tend to have a good finger on the pulse for things and don’t make emotional financial decisions.

Similar discussion going on in the stocks thread and similar results.

Be like water.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

USA economy is strong. Unemployment historically low. Things are going great here. What really hurts people is unemployment. And a far 2nd to that is inflation.

Bring on the recession! Time to pay some debts and come back to reality.

Flippers and cryptos can find a real job. ;)

Not gonna go any further into economics. Just happy to see watch values crash so they will be more available for me and other collectors.

We should probably keep that your a little secret.

[~JJ]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Hello my old friend, I'm not "ultra focused" on value, but this thread is about watch values, so guess what? People are discussing values.

I mentioned value retention because it is very well-known that two specific brands have always done well on the secondary market. There is nothing new about that. Those are PP & Rolex. My collection also includes Zenith, JLC and Seiko, none of which do especially well on the secondary market. the last watch I bought was an OP39 in 2017, and I don't own anything that's "popular" right now.

I'm just reporting what I can see on C24. Some are going down, some are flat, and some are going up. You could see it too, if you looked.

Nothing popular, I thought you owned a Nautilus?? However, I’m a big fan of your posts, gotta have someone holding the bag at end of the day. As they say in the woods, you don’t have to outrun the bear, just your neighbor.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

Nothing popular, I thought you owned a Nautilus?? However, I’m a big fan of your posts, gotta have someone holding the bag at end of the day. As they say in the woods, you don’t have to outrun the bear, just your neighbor.

I’m thinking that theory is nonsense as a bear will identify the runner as prey. So if you hold ground and your buddy runs screaming….the bear might chase and eat your boy lol

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

Nothing popular, I thought you owned a Nautilus?? However, I’m a big fan of your posts, gotta have someone holding the bag at end of the day. As they say in the woods, you don’t have to outrun the bear, just your neighbor.

The volume and variety of misleading statements coming from one poster are staggering. Wonder if he’s pleading his case over in the PP forum where they are discussing dropping Nautilus market prices.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

For everyday buyers and sellers the real price is somewhere around 50% less than auction results and 30% less than C24 listings. That’s a safe estimate to go by.

OK, subtract 30% off all C24 prices - and the trend is identical.

I'm talking about trends on C24, not whether the pricing "is correct".

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Wonder if he’s pleading his case over in the PP forum where they are discussing dropping Nautilus market prices.

More like cratering. The G2G sites have ground to a halt and prices are way down. I think we are about to hit freefall.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

Nothing popular, I thought you owned a Nautilus?? However, I’m a big fan of your posts, gotta have someone holding the bag at end of the day. As they say in the woods, you don’t have to outrun the bear, just your neighbor.

I meant nothing popular in the Rolex line-up since this is the Rolex section of TRF. I have an OP and a couple of old Subs. Nothing Ceramic, no Daytona.

[GB-man]

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

The volume and variety of misleading statements coming from one poster are staggering. Wonder if he’s pleading his case over in the PP forum where they are discussing dropping Nautilus market prices.

I'm not pleading any case, I'm just reporting interesting anomalies in the Rolex market. Some up, some down, some level. I don't have anything for sale. I will possibly/probably sell the Nautilus either next year or 2024, so don't hold your breath on that!

[sudo_root]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I'm not pleading any case, I'm just reporting interesting anomalies in the Rolex market. Some up, some down, some level. I don't have anything for sale. I will possibly/probably sell the Nautilus either next year or 2024, so don't hold your breath on that!

Quite literally every single model has gone down in comparison to recent highs just a few months ago…

[kirth]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Love it!

Imagine purchasing something for the sheer joy of ownership.

[~JJ]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’m thinking that theory is nonsense as a bear will identify the runner as prey. So if you hold ground and your buddy runs screaming….the bear might chase and eat your boy lol

Bahaha, might be some truth there

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

Quite literally every single model has gone down in comparison to recent highs just a few months ago…

Quite literally, that's not true. Try the 116610LN, click on any of them, and look at the graph. It's not climbing much, but it is climbing. Same for some of the OPs I looked at.

https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/in...goal_suggest=1

[Solo118]

Moral of the story imho, do not look at C24 for what is truly happening. Their prices are always inflated, due to fees etc.

In other news, I would say that while modern pieces continue to drop, I think discontinued models and vintage should still hold steady. The hype is what made the more modern pieces go up, and now it looks like it is deflating (not bursting!)

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Quite literally, that's not true. Try the 116610LN, click on any of them, and look at the graph. It's not climbing much, but it is climbing. Same for some of the OPs I looked at.

https://www.chrono24.co.uk/search/in...goal_suggest=1

Your tired Chrono24 argument has been debunked repeatedly by numerous people. No one is buying it. Don’t you get it?

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Moral of the story imho, do not look at C24 for what is truly happening. Their prices are always inflated, due to fees etc.

OMG I've already explained why C24s inflated prices has no effect on the trend.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

OMG I've already explained why C24s inflated prices has no effect on the trend.

Fake prices=fake trend.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Your tired Chrono24 argument has been debunked repeatedly by numerous people. No one is buying it. Don’t you get it?

Don't you "get" the idea of an overall trend rather than a specific price?

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Fake prices=fake trend.

You can't have it both ways. Either C24s prices are inflated or they are not, and either way it makes absolutely no difference when price trends are observed over time.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Don't you "get" the idea of an overall trend rather than a specific price?

I get that the trend is most people here are disagreeing with you, as are many other data sources. Guess we are all wrong and you and Chrono24 are right.

[thenewrick]

Relax. Prices are coming down on 99.99% of references. C24 prices and trends are not accurate.

The discontinued OPs trended up since their discontinuation while virtually all others went down. But we will see the OPs continue to go down as well.

Oil stocks have been doing okay lately too. ;p

Being reasonable will help with emotions. Prices are coming down for virtually everything. They will likely stabilize when the stock markets and world economic volatility stabilize. But we will likely not see 2015-2022 references spike back up ever. There will be all new Nautilous/Daytona references in the coming years and current stock will be recent vintage and likely not exceedingly valuable.

We are just splattering from the bubble pop. Be like water and adapt and slowly turn back into an ocean.

No sense trolling people who bought grey in the last couple years. They feel the heat. People can invest and collect in whatever they want. No need to say I told you so. Someone else always did better than you did.

Is it a good time to buy Grey? No. Is it a good time to buy new to flip or invest? No.

Is it a good time to buy msrp and wear and enjoy? Yep. Still great for that and getting better by the day.

Y’all need to chill on the personal attacks and childish defensiveness.

I’m fine with posts showing sold prices for hot references. Just data.

I think whales and big Greys will be long holds so I don’t expect a flood of cheap watches on C24 anytime soon. I just expect there to be more availability from ADs and more difficult for individuals trying to sell their watch for whatever reason.

[DocHorton]

Are some of these knuckleheads still arguing that prices haven't dropped?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

No sense trolling people who bought grey in the last couple years. They feel the heat. People can invest and collect in whatever they want. No need to say I told you so. Someone else always did better than you did.

I disagree here. These people are trying to prop up a falling market with false narratives for their own benefit, to the detriment of others (naive buyers). That is not OK, and someone needs to call out the BS.

[HelloMelo]

http://www.daliadiamonds.com/index.p...roduct_id=1787

Hulk for 11k. Prices are definitely crashing

[Chiboy]

General comment:

I have found that when a poster posts more than 10 or 20 times on a thread, they generally have ceased to provide anything new or interesting.

OK, back to the "debate"....