It's happening....

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Solo118

DSW Had a 116500 Panda for $52k just yesterday, today it is $44k. No denying prices are dropping, question is where is the bottom.

I’ve never seen one for 52K. I’ve seen a couple for 50K. White dials. Until they get to be 17K or 20K again I’m not going to be impressed. I believe they will drop though as the economy collapses more.

[messikens]

For some unknown reason I take pleasure in seeing the prices drop or high "bump" counts with $500-$1000 increment discounts.

I know it's completely irrational (not like I am looking to buy these pieces)... And not meant to insult anyone.

But it's the same as watching incredulously when prices went up by the same amount and sold in an instant 2-3 months ago...

Guess it's nice to be an innocent bystander sometimes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by messikens

For some unknown reason I take pleasure in seeing the prices drop or high "bump" counts with $500-$1000 increment discounts.

I know it's completely irrational (not like I am looking to buy these pieces)... And not meant to insult anyone.

But it's the same as watching incredulously when prices went up by the same amount and sold in an instant 2-3 months ago...

Guess it's nice to be an innocent bystander sometimes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by GB-man

[usctrojan99]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I have yet to see prices come down significantly on anything. The only thing I’ve seen and I know for a fact is that greys stopped buying (certain references) from flippers for a week. For all I know they’re buying again. This is all depressing because I would love to see all the watch prices come crashing down. Especially Patek and AP. Several references from these two companies are going for over 100K for a freaking stainless steel watch. That’s pure madness and insanity. I guess certain people like to flex. LOL

You're going to see a reset on prices. I don't know how far these drop, but this is just the beginning. Just hold on tight.

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by amh

The situation will only get worse long term.

Guess how much population growth worldwide this year? 30M
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

The steady 1M units/year Rolex production isn't keeping up.

That’s a cool page, I actually just bookmarked it, that’s for showing introducing me to it. Jeeze, 30 million? That’s a mind blowing number. That’s more people than live in my whole state

[doboy007]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve never seen one for 52K. I’ve seen a couple for 50K. White dials. Until they get to be 17K or 20K again I’m not going to be impressed. I believe they will drop though as the economy collapses more.

They (greys) were asking as much as $55k a month or two ago.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Not on the greys websites who I buy from or look at. I most certainly haven’t seen AP or Patek drop. I hope it happens in a massive way. If the economy keeps tanking like it is it absolutely will. However I imagine most people even around here will have a lot more things to worry about then if they can buy a Rolex watch at retail.

This is a 45K piece. Lol
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=855364

David sw has a 5712g for $79k. As for the 5726, I think it would be unlikely anyone will buy at that price. Maybe wrong, but plenty for sale with ask <$120k on Chrono24.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by amh

The situation will only get worse long term.

Guess how much population growth worldwide this year? 30M
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

The steady 1M units/year Rolex production isn't keeping up.

Yeah, but if you look at where that population growth is highest, those are countries that probably are also some of the lowest gdp / capita and are a miniscule % of luxury watch sales. The markets probably most important to Rolex like the US, China, EU birth rates are stable or decreasing. Just wait till the effects of the one child policy in China really kick in...

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by Solo118

DSW Had a 116500 Panda for $52k just yesterday, today it is $44k. No denying prices are dropping, question is where is the bottom.

I saw this too, I doubt he is taking a hit on it, probably bought a year ago so plenty in it.

[amh]

Wonder why DavidSW hasn't changed BLNR prices at all, top one still listed close to $26k. Elsewhere $21k is not hard to find even at prominent greys.

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by amh

Wonder why DavidSW hasn't changed BLNR prices at all, top one still listed close to $26k. Elsewhere $21k is not hard to find even at prominent greys.

possibly because hes got too much money in the watches? no point in selling at a loss i guess?

Pure speculation of course.

[amh]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Yeah, but if you look at where that population growth is highest, those are countries that probably are also some of the lowest gdp / capita and are a miniscule % of luxury watch sales. The markets probably most important to Rolex like the US, China, EU birth rates are stable or decreasing. Just wait till the effects of the one child policy in China really kick in...

A million watches a year is actually a small number.

How many ADs are there, one may wonder? 1816
https://millenarywatches.com/how-man...%20the%20world.

That's only about 500 watches per year, per AD. About 3 new watches coming in every couple days, 10 per week. And out of that trickle we have:
(To make matters worse, some lines have ladies & gents sizes)
- Cellini
- DD
- SD
- OP
- DJ
- AK
- GMT
- Sub
- SD
- YM
- Daytona
- Exp
- Milgauss

You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than 'finding' that SS watch of your dreams at the AD. When ADs say they only get a handful of something like a BLNR each year, they're likely speaking the truth.

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by amh

A million watches a year is actually a small number.

How many ADs are there, one may wonder? 1816
https://millenarywatches.com/how-man...%20the%20world.

That's only about 500 watches per year, per AD. About 3 new watches coming in every couple days, 10 per week. And out of that trickle we have:
(To make matters worse, some lines have ladies & gents sizes)
- Cellini
- DD
- SD
- OP
- DJ
- AK
- GMT
- Sub
- SD
- YM
- Daytona
- Exp
- Milgauss

You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than 'finding' that SS watch of your dreams at the AD. When ADs say they only get a handful of something like a BLNR each year, they're likely speaking the truth.

Thank you!!!! Someone with some methodical thinking. I’d also like to add with the ym and exp you have i and ii. And there’s also the 30 70 rule, but idk if that’s fact or rumor (ads are required to sell 70 classic pieces for ever 30 sports pieces they’re allocated)

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by amh

A million watches a year is actually a small number.

How many ADs are there, one may wonder? 1816
https://millenarywatches.com/how-man...%20the%20world.

That's only about 500 watches per year, per AD. About 3 new watches coming in every couple days, 10 per week. And out of that trickle we have:
(To make matters worse, some lines have ladies & gents sizes)
- Cellini
- DD
- SD
- OP
- DJ
- AK
- GMT
- Sub
- SD
- YM
- Daytona
- Exp
- Milgauss

You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than 'finding' that SS watch of your dreams at the AD. When ADs say they only get a handful of something like a BLNR each year, they're likely speaking the truth.

Good post, interesting and of course youre correct. I suppose the only thing we dont know is how many are made of each item.

[JadeRaven]

Originally Posted by amh

A million watches a year is actually a small number.

How many ADs are there, one may wonder? 1816
https://millenarywatches.com/how-man...%20the%20world.

That's only about 500 watches per year, per AD. About 3 new watches coming in every couple days, 10 per week. And out of that trickle we have:
(To make matters worse, some lines have ladies & gents sizes)
- Cellini
- DD
- SD
- OP
- DJ
- AK
- GMT
- Sub
- SD
- YM
- Daytona
- Exp
- Milgauss

You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than 'finding' that SS watch of your dreams at the AD. When ADs say they only get a handful of something like a BLNR each year, they're likely speaking the truth.

There's actually something like 1,500-1,600 dealers as of 2022. Rolex has been eliminated over 100 ADs in the past 24mos, in all countries.

Yeah and FWIW the gm of my dealer tells me for any given SS model they may only get half a dozen a year. I believe him.

[apinault]

Interesting article yesterday
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/con...tier-and-tudor

[gerry100]

Originally Posted by amh

Wonder why DavidSW hasn't changed BLNR prices at all, top one still listed close to $26k. Elsewhere $21k is not hard to find even at prominent greys.

The difference between asking price and negotiated final selling price is the true "tell" in this situation.

This forum seems to have no visibility on this.

[amh]

Originally Posted by gerry100

The difference between asking price and negotiated final selling price is the true "tell" in this situation.

This forum seems to have no visibility on this.

The 'Moda' prices are probably the closest thing to a street price. (However tried to join Moda and Facebook shut down my account - I still maintain that it's a somewhat sketchy forum for most people. I'm not desperate enough to keep pushing that angle.)

Anyway, no one is going to post their OTD prices they negotiated with someone. I would consider it a breach of trust and your neighborhood grey dealer wouldn't appreciate it either. Most people do the right thing and just post a "thumbs up" review for each other and leave it at that.

[Epanerai12]

Since i started this mess of a thread, figured I would add to it.

I spoke to a friend of mine who works at a big grey dealer and its not good. in short, no one is buying (NO ONE) whereas 12-24 months ago everyone and their mom wanted one of the "hot watches". Now they only get offers to sell and are only offering retail price or slightly above if offering at all ( actually below retail on 11 series black subs, and below msrp on sd43s, dssds, and djs). They have a "glut" of everything sitting around. The word desperate was used in the chat as well.

On a personal note, I am surprised no one really has suggested that in addition to all the wealth destruction around the world right now coupled with the stupidity (dealers included) of the "speculators paradise" that the watch hobby has become, that perhaps some of the novelty of the whole thing has grown tired (think like a fad).

Perhaps added to all this market BS is that people en masse are just moving on to the next thing ie the casual observer of some means who caught the bug to get a rolex bc it was the cool thing of the moment and has a 0% financing offer has gotten their watch and aren't repeat customers?

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by amh

A million watches a year is actually a small number.

How many ADs are there, one may wonder? 1816
https://millenarywatches.com/how-man...%20the%20world.

That's only about 500 watches per year, per AD. About 3 new watches coming in every couple days, 10 per week. And out of that trickle we have:
(To make matters worse, some lines have ladies & gents sizes)
- Cellini
- DD
- SD
- OP
- DJ
- AK
- GMT
- Sub
- SD
- YM
- Daytona
- Exp
- Milgauss

You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than 'finding' that SS watch of your dreams at the AD. When ADs say they only get a handful of something like a BLNR each year, they're likely speaking the truth.

I'm not arguing whether a million is a lot or a little, just saying that population increases don't have any significant impact on rolex demand and just throwing out big numbers without context is misleading. If you really want to do maths, that global population increase on a percentage basis is like 1%. I think Rolex can handle a 1% increase in production / year.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by amh

The 'Moda' prices are probably the closest thing to a street price. (However tried to join Moda and Facebook shut down my account - I still maintain that it's a somewhat sketchy forum for most people. I'm not desperate enough to keep pushing that angle.)

Anyway, no one is going to post their OTD prices they negotiated with someone. I would consider it a breach of trust and your neighborhood grey dealer wouldn't appreciate it either. Most people do the right thing and just post a "thumbs up" review for each other and leave it at that.

On Moda it is amazing (to me at least) how watches and large sums of money are sent back and forth, solely on trust. And based purely on the references of other people on there. I think it is honest because it would soon fall apart if conmen were just pocketing cash and watches. Prices are falling, no doubt. The economy is getting worse. People are getting poorer. I see MSRP as where we are aheading. Seems very hard to believe prices would start going up again with the outlook as it is. When the flippers move on we are back to MSRP from ADs.

[Frog7151]

Originally Posted by usctrojan99

You're going to see a reset on prices. I don't know how far these drop, but this is just the beginning. Just hold on tight.

I hope you are right. I just passed on a 126610LN for $12k. I really prefer to purchase from AD if possible.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Since i started this mess of a thread, figured I would add to it.

I spoke to a friend of mine who works at a big grey dealer and its not good. in short, no one is buying (NO ONE) whereas 12-24 months ago everyone and their mom wanted one of the "hot watches". Now they only get offers to sell and are only offering retail price or slightly above if offering at all ( actually below retail on 11 series black subs, and below msrp on sd43s, dssds, and djs). They have a "glut" of everything sitting around. The word desperate was used in the chat as well.

On a personal note, I am surprised no one really has suggested that in addition to all the wealth destruction around the world right now coupled with the stupidity (dealers included) of the "speculators paradise" that the watch hobby has become, that perhaps some of the novelty of the whole thing has grown tired (think like a fad).

Perhaps added to all this market BS is that people en masse are just moving on to the next thing ie the casual observer of some means who caught the bug to get a rolex bc it was the cool thing of the moment and has a 0% financing offer has gotten their watch and aren't repeat customers?

Thanks for starting the thread and your further insight into the market in this post. I thought things were down and that they had a ways to go. What I did not expect was to read comments like yours. If this is widespread, I am fearful for a lot of people just in general.

I find myself looking at for sale ads and while a lot of the hype watches are the focus of these discussions, I think it’s also worth pointing out that some of the historically lesser desirable watches will likely soon be had at msrp and subsequently back of msrp imo. A couple of observations and then a personal data point.

I have been following watches like exp 1 and 2, dj, air king as well as two tone sports watches. The best of the rest. I think they’ve softened substantially. I believe that if prices are dropping precipitously with “hyped” or highly desirable sports watches (saw a 5167a offered at $60k and sold quickly), then these best of the rest watches will fall off a cliff.

It is said that a high tide raises all ships. The converse is true as well and we are beginning to see the flotsam and jetsam of current market dynamics.

An anecdotal example is this. I reached out to my ad the other day to ask for his advise regarding special purchase for my wife. I was planning on buying jewelry. The idea of a watch was not on my radar. I was offered an exquisite two tone dj. I bought it in a heartbeat. It was such a pleasant surprise. I don’t think this would’ve happened a month or two ago.

[RollieWhysohardtoget]

Many luxury goods slide when talks of recession are in the air. Rolex was used as quick flips and speculators for many years. Most of the prices went up from dealers selling to other dealers before getting to customer wrists.

The bottom is not in yet. I was able to get my wife her first Rolex recently via local family owned, AD that I had no history with, just few months waiting. Even though its only 28mm OP, I was still shocked they got it in for me. I believe Rolex AD will be calling more of us as the flippers are slowly disappearing in downturn economy.

I say in this market stay on sidelines and wait cash heavy for the right opportunity.

[apinault]

Davis SW hasn’t budged on his Datejust prices…

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by apinault

Davis SW hasn’t budged on his Datejust prices…

Why should he? They are not super inflated, they are pretty fair to be honest considering MSRP plus tax. The ones that deflate are the ones that had a huge difference between MSRP and asking

[apinault]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Why should he? They are not super inflated, they are pretty fair to be honest considering MSRP plus tax. The ones that deflate are the ones that had a huge difference between MSRP and asking

$4k over msrp even after factoring in sales tax is still a big premium on a $7,900 watch (current msrp)

[ajw45]

DSW is going to lower prices as slow as his cash flow allows to try to maintain margin. Assume he is a few weeks behind current trading.

[Jonnewbank]

strangely my white gold daytona oysterflex doesn’t seem to be losing value, or the rose gold ones. anything that was double retail seems to be holding, any that were more are dropping down to double.

bad luck for top end pepsi and steel daytona owners.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk