Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[Vince_76]

People wanting to shut these threads down make the most nonsensical arguments. Just stay out.

Back to the topic at hand - there has been an insane number of royal oak postings with virtually 0 interest this past week. Some seller dropping prices, others staying firm. There’s obviously a huge bid/ask spread given the lack of trades…and there’s no doubt in my mind that this will play out in favor of the buyer.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

People wanting to shut these threads down make the most nonsensical arguments. Just stay out.

Back to the topic at hand - there has been an insane number of royal oak postings with virtually 0 interest this past week. Some seller dropping prices, others staying firm. There’s obviously a huge bid/ask spread given the lack of trades…and there’s no doubt in my mind that this will play out in favor of the buyer.

Yeah I saw this too.

The fact is, some Rolex and PP are still getting sold here and there. AP market across any and every platform, Chrono24/eBay/TRF/MODA…..I havent seen a SINGLE 15510 or 26240 sell.

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I saw this too.

The fact is, some Rolex and PP are still getting sold here and there. AP market across any and every platform, Chrono24/eBay/TRF/MODA…..I havent seen a SINGLE 15510 or 26240 sell.

AP market been dead for months. I’ve had my full set 15202ST (From 2006) up for a while on Chrono and there’s been next to no interest. And I’m the cheapest by quite a wide margin.

Thought I would share.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Nicof

AP market been dead for months. I’ve had my full set 15202ST (From 2006) up for a while on Chrono and there’s been next to no interest. And I’m the cheapest by quite a wide margin.

Thought I would share.


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Appreciate the direct insight. Mind sharing the price you’re asking? Blue dial?


And I do find you’re correct in regards to it being this way for months. What’s wild to me though is that according to MODA there were some confirmed sales earlier this year for well into 6 figures on some 26240 greens. Unreal

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by dmash

Appreciate the direct insight. Mind sharing the price you’re asking? Blue dial?


And I do belobe you’re correct. What’s wild to me though as that according to MODA there were some confirmed sales earlier this year for well into 6 figures on some 26240 greens. Unreal

Yup blue dial. Asking is GBP 61k I think but to be honest I don’t even think I’d get any interest if it was in the 50s.


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Nicof

Yup blue dial. Asking is GBP 61k I think but to be honest I don’t even think I’d get any interest if it was in the 50s.


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GBP 60k is really different than USD 60k.

More productively, I have found it interesting how important new and pristine, almost like newest in fashion cycle has been for AP as opposed to discontinued driving the market robustness like it does for PP.

I also, FWIW, find it interesting how cumbersome the process is to service AP versus PP. PP of course being very clear that any piece can be serviced, and AP explicitly saying over 25 years, need to reach out to them first.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

GBP 60k is really different than USD 60k.
.

Not really, have you exchanged currency recently?

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

Not really, have you exchanged currency recently?

way things are going 60K GBP could be $55K USD by New Years

[dmash]

Originally Posted by aa909

way things are going 60K GBP could be $55K USD by New Years

Never know!

It's crazy, I feel like just yesterday 60kGBP was ~$85k

[steeevvvooo]

Agree on the USD vs GBP not being too different now. :) I've found listed GBP prices in recent months are very close to USD prices given no additional tax to pay in the UK pricing vs taxes in the US or import duties buying a US watch from the UK. The way the pound is at the moment those USD prices look a little high to me ;)

Anyway, this is a decent reference point. J serial AP chrono blue (2016-2018 ish?), a claimed full set, just sold via an auction for $45.6k. I'm not making a judgement on condition of the watch, whether the buyer was a shill or not etc. but seller seems pretty active on MODA therefore I assume he is at least legit.

I have no dog in this fight, but was surprised at the price to be honest given where I've seen similar watches listed...



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[conkers]

I think it is an interesting thread but I also take the point that is a shame it is a little less about the watches than about the trajectory of values. Simplistically if you love a watch at 80 and it goes to 60 then you are happy and save some money. If however you then say hmm well it might go to 50 then you will always be second guessing yourself and it becomes a monetary decision rather than a collecting decision. Everyone sits at a different point on this scale (“investing” vs collecting) so it’s impossible to generalise what is the correct strategy as it will entirely depend on the individual.

[dmash]

wow that's pretty high if legit!

That blue Chrono is discontinued and doesn't pop up super often though, I actually believe it. some guys still prefer the inverse dials, especially the white panda.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by conkers

I think it is an interesting thread but I also take the point that is a shame it is a little less about the watches than about the trajectory of values. Simplistically if you love a watch at 80 and it goes to 60 then you are happy and save some money. If however you then say hmm well it might go to 50 then you will always be second guessing yourself and it becomes a monetary decision rather than a collecting decision. Everyone sits at a different point on this scale (“investing” vs collecting) so it’s impossible to generalise what is the correct strategy as it will entirely depend on the individual.

I wholly agree with you if we were discussing values *less* than MSRP and just trying to get the best deal paired with being hopeful for doom and gloom. We're discussing the recent absurdity tracking back *towards* MSRP, so they can be obtained again like a normal buyer. Most of the guys (myself included) don't care where it goes from MSRP, we just want to pay MSRP again so it doesn't feel like we're getting played for fools. There's no monetary decision other than that, which is highly reasonable and sensible in my opinion.

I think it's important to point out this major difference.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by conkers

I think it is an interesting thread but I also take the point that is a shame it is a little less about the watches than about the trajectory of values. Simplistically if you love a watch at 80 and it goes to 60 then you are happy and save some money. If however you then say hmm well it might go to 50 then you will always be second guessing yourself and it becomes a monetary decision rather than a collecting decision. Everyone sits at a different point on this scale (“investing” vs collecting) so it’s impossible to generalise what is the correct strategy as it will entirely depend on the individual.

This strikes a chord. No matter the "current" price or projected price people always want to buy for 20% less. As that "current" price falls, the desired purchase price for many falls too. Everyone wants a bargain, but no one wants to identify their version of "value" and buy a watch they hold dear for whatever reason. If I value heritage/celebrity owner/precious metal/technical revolution or whatever then great.

The speculation has caused untold issues in the hobby IMHO.

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[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by conkers

I think it is an interesting thread but I also take the point that is a shame it is a little less about the watches than about the trajectory of values. Simplistically if you love a watch at 80 and it goes to 60 then you are happy and save some money. If however you then say hmm well it might go to 50 then you will always be second guessing yourself and it becomes a monetary decision rather than a collecting decision. Everyone sits at a different point on this scale (“investing” vs collecting) so it’s impossible to generalise what is the correct strategy as it will entirely depend on the individual.

Nailed it on the head! I totally agree. I couldn't of said it any better. Hopefully we can get back to collecting versus investing on this forum soon. It was much more interesting before and I learned a ton from many of you on this forum.

@Conkers, you need post more pics of your pieces like you used to..

[conkers]

As the esteemed Mr Buffett says: “price is what you pay, value is what you get”.

Sorry don’t post too much any more, the dynamic of the forum has changed somewhat over recent years and I have largely stopped posting on IG as well due to multiple and repeated poor experiences: 1) scammers 2) young ladies looking for a sugar daddy 3) people claiming to be my friend at dealers to get allocations 4) people I have never met asking for my help with allocations 5) random dealers harassing me to sell pieces or offering me unwanted pieces at silly prices - pls note there are still many excellent dealers I continue to work with I am not tarring them all with the same brush 6) haters and very rude people attacking me

Happy enjoying my collection in private and with other locally-based watch lovers.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by conkers

As the esteemed Mr Buffett says: “price is what you pay, value is what you get”.

Sorry don’t post too much any more, the dynamic of the forum has changed somewhat over recent years and I have largely stopped posting on IG as well due to multiple and repeated poor experiences: 1) scammers 2) young ladies looking for a sugar daddy 3) people claiming to be my friend at dealers to get allocations 4) people I have never met asking for my help with allocations 5) random dealers harassing me to sell pieces or offering me unwanted pieces at silly prices - pls note there are still many excellent dealers I continue to work with I am not tarring them all with the same brush 6) haters and very rude people attacking me

Happy enjoying my collection in private and with other locally-based watch lovers.

That's nuts!

[conkers]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

That's nuts!

Indeed. This is the world in which we now live.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by conkers

... 3) people claiming to be my friend at dealers to get allocations...

Bloody hell, that's pathetic.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by conkers

As the esteemed Mr Buffett says: “price is what you pay, value is what you get”.

Sorry don’t post too much any more, the dynamic of the forum has changed somewhat over recent years and I have largely stopped posting on IG as well due to multiple and repeated poor experiences: 1) scammers 2) young ladies looking for a sugar daddy 3) people claiming to be my friend at dealers to get allocations 4) people I have never met asking for my help with allocations 5) random dealers harassing me to sell pieces or offering me unwanted pieces at silly prices - pls note there are still many excellent dealers I continue to work with I am not tarring them all with the same brush 6) haters and very rude people attacking me

Happy enjoying my collection in private and with other locally-based watch lovers.

I hope you changed your mind and continue engaging on TRF though. Some of the watches or knowledge that you have will definitely benefit other enthusiasts on TRF and allow us to get a perspective from the really top 1% of collectors. Like the video done with Revolution Watch gave many the opportunity to see unique piece AP and the full set of 5970. Sorry to hear about your bad experiences.

[Shmoopy]

Originally Posted by conkers

Sorry don’t post too much any more, the dynamic of the forum has changed somewhat over recent years and I have largely stopped posting on IG as well due to multiple and repeated poor experiences: 1) scammers 2) young ladies looking for a sugar daddy 3) people claiming to be my friend at dealers to get allocations 4) people I have never met asking for my help with allocations 5) random dealers harassing me to sell pieces or offering me unwanted pieces at silly prices - pls note there are still many excellent dealers I continue to work with I am not tarring them all with the same brush 6) haters and very rude people attacking me

Happy enjoying my collection in private and with other locally-based watch lovers.

This strikes a chord. My closest friend has a substantial social media following for a subject other than watches. He is so passionate about the subject, but the amount of hateful comments he gets is insane. I couldn't imagine sharing my passion when the other "like-minded" folks are saying 'you are ugly and F You and this and that and I hope you get robbed"

I always tell him to consider the source. Does that person know him? The answer is always the same...

As far as prices dropping. I am sitting over here like that Jack Nicholson Anger Management meme where he is smiling and shaking his head. I am new to spending $$$ on expensive watches. For me, I do not care if I purchase a watch at $100k, and it goes down to $50k. I won't be happy about it, but it won't move the needle at all. I wore it, I stared at it, I was mesmerized by it and I enjoyed it. I can chalk it up to the cost of ownership.

But, I am also not going to light money on fire with AD/BT unnecessarily. If I can purchase a watch through a gray at $60k and the identical watch is $100k at an AD, whatever the brand, I would need the AD to give me a pretty compelling reason other than the experience they offer.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Shmoopy

This strikes a chord. My closest friend has a substantial social media following for a subject other than watches. He is so passionate about the subject, but the amount of hateful comments he gets is insane. I couldn't imagine sharing my passion when the other "like-minded" folks are saying 'you are ugly and F You and this and that and I hope you get robbed"

I always tell him to consider the source. Does that person know him? The answer is always the same...

As far as prices dropping. I am sitting over here like that Jack Nicholson Anger Management meme where he is smiling and shaking his head. I am new to spending $$$ on expensive watches. For me, I do not care if I purchase a watch at $100k, and it goes down to $50k. I won't be happy about it, but it won't move the needle at all. I wore it, I stared at it, I was mesmerized by it and I enjoyed it. I can chalk it up to the cost of ownership.

But, I am also not going to light money on fire with AD/BT unnecessarily. If I can purchase a watch through a gray at $60k and the identical watch is $100k at an AD, whatever the brand, I would need the AD to give me a pretty compelling reason other than the experience they offer.

I understand this 100% and why I try to differentiate my social media from my other online presence entirely. I have 1M followers on another platform (with my wife) and we get weird stuff constantly. I can overlook all of it entirely but can't help but feel my wife takes some of it to heart.

Originally Posted by conkers

As the esteemed Mr Buffett says: “price is what you pay, value is what you get”.

Sorry don’t post too much any more, the dynamic of the forum has changed somewhat over recent years and I have largely stopped posting on IG as well due to multiple and repeated poor experiences: 1) scammers 2) young ladies looking for a sugar daddy 3) people claiming to be my friend at dealers to get allocations 4) people I have never met asking for my help with allocations 5) random dealers harassing me to sell pieces or offering me unwanted pieces at silly prices - pls note there are still many excellent dealers I continue to work with I am not tarring them all with the same brush 6) haters and very rude people attacking me

Happy enjoying my collection in private and with other locally-based watch lovers.

That is so incredibly annoying to feel like you're being used, wow. Sometimes it's healthy to take a break my man

Those types of scenarios are precisely why I've never posted incomings or even mention my social media to any brand when trying to get allocations. Don't want any of that correlated (even despite being told by some people it could help me get more watches). If that's what you've based your presence off of, obviously it's a bit different though.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

I wholly agree with you if we were discussing values *less* than MSRP and just trying to get the best deal paired with being hopeful for doom and gloom. We're discussing the recent absurdity tracking back *towards* MSRP, so they can be obtained again like a normal buyer. Most of the guys (myself included) don't care where it goes from MSRP, we just want to pay MSRP again so it doesn't feel like we're getting played for fools. There's no monetary decision other than that, which is highly reasonable and sensible in my opinion.

I think it's important to point out this major difference.

Well said. Spot on.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by dmash

I understand this 100% and why I try to differentiate my social media from my other online presence entirely. I have 1M followers on another platform (with my wife) and we get weird stuff constantly. I can overlook all of it entirely but can't help but feel my wife takes some of it to heart.



That is so incredibly annoying to feel like you're being used, wow. Sometimes it's healthy to take a break my man

Those types of scenarios are precisely why I've never posted incomings or even mention my social media to any brand when trying to get allocations. Don't want any of that correlated (even despite being told by some people it could help me get more watches). If that's what you've based your presence off of, obviously it's a bit different though.

Surely Cookie Monster has more than 1M followers?

[conkers]

Yes it is indeed a shame the way things have played out. But it is what it is! I will try and continue to contribute where I have something useful/constructive to add to the debate.

[youthagainsttt]

Originally Posted by dmash

I understand this 100% and why I try to differentiate my social media from my other online presence entirely. I have 1M followers on another platform (with my wife) and we get weird stuff constantly. I can overlook all of it entirely but can't help but feel my wife takes some of it to heart.



That is so incredibly annoying to feel like you're being used, wow. Sometimes it's healthy to take a break my man

Those types of scenarios are precisely why I've never posted incomings or even mention my social media to any brand when trying to get allocations. Don't want any of that correlated (even despite being told by some people it could help me get more watches). If that's what you've based your presence off of, obviously it's a bit different though.

Great work bro! You must be famous

I've only got 12k IG followers although it's nothing to do with watches - more on bodybuilding & food

But I can emphasise with Conkers points especially in Hong Kong, many girls looking for a free meal/sugar daddy, for members asking me for advice even thought I've posted my 2 cents umpteen times. And obviously still a modest collection if compared to other forum members here

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

Goes from agreeing, to now back to battling. I think you're just salty I called you out on your proclaimed 'allocations' while simultaneously flipping so many pieces. Either that or you're backpack flipping yourself as the only desperation seems how you're grasping at straws to claim the market is unchanged. There's not a single individual who agrees with you about any opinion you have, yet mine is backed with data and is simply factual.

I'm going to cease responding to you after this. I honestly think you're a bit off you're rocker at this point. Not to mention everything you say kind of reeks as untruthful to me (and others).

Carry on though buddy, have a good one

"flipping so many pieces"? Selling a watch I had for 5+ years is flipping? Am I married to them for the rest of my life? My boutique knew about it in advance and was fine with it but hey, if they refuse to allocate me watches so be it. They didn't even care. Though according to you, soon we'll all be getting them at retail or even a discount again from the grey market.

And what data? Every time you actually post any actual data somebody else comes and comments about how it's BS. I never said the market was "unchanged". I said you make it sound worse than it actually is. Maybe you are trying to cause an actual crash since you can't get allocations, and the only way for you is the grey market which is out of reach. That's what it seems with how desperately you fight. I'll tell you a secret though, even if you convince everyone on TRF the market is in total free fall (it still won't happen).

But ok, I'm "off my rocker" and "flipping watches"....carry on I too am done responding to this nonsense as well since I am "off my rocker" if I continue doing so.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by youthagainsttt

Great work bro! You must be famous

I've only got 12k IG followers although it's nothing to do with watches - more on bodybuilding & food

But I can emphasise with Conkers points especially in Hong Kong, many girls looking for a free meal/sugar daddy, for members asking me for advice even thought I've posted my 2 cents umpteen times. And obviously still a modest collection if compared to other forum members here

I give my wife all the credit

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

"flipping so many pieces"? Selling a watch I had for 5+ years is flipping? Am I married to them for the rest of my life? My boutique knew about it in advance and was fine with it but hey, if they refuse to allocate me watches so be it. They didn't even care. Though according to you, soon we'll all be getting them at retail or even a discount again from the grey market.

And what data? Every time you actually post any actual data somebody else comes and comments about how it's BS. I never said the market was "unchanged". I said you make it sound worse than it actually is. Maybe you are trying to cause an actual crash since you can't get allocations, and the only way for you is the grey market which is out of reach. That's what it seems with how desperately you fight. I'll tell you a secret though, even if you convince everyone on TRF the market is in total free fall (it still won't happen).

But ok, I'm "off my rocker" and "flipping watches"....carry on I too am done responding to this nonsense as well since I am "off my rocker" if I continue doing so.

In fact you have been spewing misinformation while Dmash, myself, and others have been offering tangible data points. Just go look at what you were saying on page 11. You didn’t even know what MSRP was on the models we were discussing.

Second off, you are making a ton of assumptions around motive. No one here thinks that their voice is loud or powerful enough to sway the sentiments of the watch market. As previously discussed, many of us have a strong belief (supported in data, unlike your claims) that the gray market will continue to fall.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

In fact you have been spewing misinformation while Dmash, myself, and others have been offering tangible data points. Just go look at what you were saying on page 11. You didn’t even know what MSRP was on the models we were discussing.

Second off, you are making a ton of assumptions around motive. No one here thinks that their voice is loud or powerful enough to sway the sentiments of the watch market. As previously discussed, many of us have a strong belief (supported in data, unlike your claims) that the gray market will continue to fall.

Yeah I’m simply ignoring that guy at this point, suggest you do the same.



Back to the point, Takuya lists a black 26240st today for $103k. One of the most expensive asks in the entire world and no less than TEN for sale for 20-30% less than that and haven’t moved in months. I truly don’t understand how this makes sense. The only thing that *does* make sense is they’re trying to create a false sense of value in the market with extreme asks as a last ditch effort to prop it up. Surely people aren’t that gullible


Reminds me of the phony Rolex letter somebody recently found posted on social media. Who would take the time to make this other than a grey/flipper? Haha how ridiculous https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=877280