5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Okay, so I have a few questions: at what price does the 5711/1a Nautilus become cool? Only at MSRP? Is it still cool at $50K? If you bought one for less than MSRP is that watch still cool even if the market price is $100K? If you bought your 5711 at $20K but your mate paid $100K, is your watch cool but your mates isn't?
What watch is an indication of connoisseurship? In the world of the internet any moron can search for rare, expensive, high complication, time pieces and, given enough money, own anything. Any idiot with enough funds can go to a Phillips sale and pick up a few 6263s and a Comex 1665, a few tropical subs, does that make him a connoisseur? Does it mean that those watches are no longer cool and that collecting them requires no connoisseurship?
Help me understand.

Don't bother with those types. Shkure is just mad he didn't get offered one.

I know people like him. Instead of appreciating something they would rather tear it down and make it seem uncool because they don't have one themselves. You know the kind who think a driving a Ferrari is uncool (usually because they don't have one). These people are usually the loudest and biggest hypocrites.

It's easier to say "I don't have this because I never wanted it or it's uncool" rather than saying "It's out of my range" or "I'd love to get one someday" which to me is totally respectable versus speaking negatively about something.

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by S``

Clymer is a wolf among sheeps... Look at how much $$$ he is making with the Donkee's Ltd Ed watches... pumping them out like no tomorrow...

ADs wish they are as cool as Ben, they have to discount BPs, IWCs, TAGs, etc, while Ben, not only sell at full retail, but also get the manufacturers to bend to their will... Last but not least, you have the "connoisseurs" who sits on their work desk, refreshing their computers, phones, tablets, every 5 mins in order to get their orders in AT FULL RETAIL to get their fix..

Total Alpha move by Benny

Yup, you have to admit he has a very good business instinct, look how Hodinkee pivoted to being now an authorized seller of watches, with articles only supporting that angle. Hey, I appreciate a good hussle when I see one. Although the endless Grand Seiko and Citizen peddling can get a bit annoying.

[S``]

Originally Posted by CastorKrieg

Yup, you have to admit he has a very good business instinct, look how Hodinkee pivoted to being now an authorized seller of watches, with articles only supporting that angle. Hey, I appreciate a good hussle when I see one. Although the endless Grand Seiko and Citizen peddling can get a bit annoying.

You don't have to be a fan of the man or the brand in order to see how impeccable his move is... From a blog to a media company, now... basically an AD with brands' backing them up...

Hodinkee is now basically a shill machine to sell watches, not one i would even use as a reference.

[shkure]

And this is exactly the issue: you think of watches as speculation. “Buy low, sell high”, “buy 4 5270s in every color because they are undervalued”. Its exactly this kind of thinking that has pushed the prices for the social media hot watches to stratospheric levels.

As for myself, i buy what i love and i dont expect to get wealthy out of it. This is a hobby after all and I treat it as such.


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[shkure]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Don't bother with those types. Shkure is just mad he didn't get offered one.

I know people like him. Instead of appreciating something they would rather tear it down and make it seem uncool because they don't have one themselves. You know the kind who think a driving a Ferrari is uncool (usually because they don't have one). These people are usually the loudest and biggest hypocrites.

It's easier to say "I don't have this because I never wanted it or it's uncool" rather than saying "It's out of my range" or "I'd love to get one someday" which to me is totally respectable versus speaking negatively about something.

So you ran out of good arguments and now you are bringing wealth and Ferraris into it? Lol you Nautilus fans are so emotional.

I didnt like the 5711 at 25k in 2016 when it was sitting in cases and for sure i dont like it now at 100k. There are much better watches at that price point like a 5720. That has been my argument all along and it turns out Ben Clymer supports it. Very simple

And dont project your wealth insecurities onto me. We clearly see who needs to show off by listing every single watch the supposedly own in their signature. We get it

Carry on


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[shkure]

1

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by shkure

I didnt like the 5711 at 25k in 2016 when it was sitting in cases

I´ve read this sentence several times on here. Can someone please enlighten me where all these mysterious 5711s have been sitting at ADs across Europe?

I´ve never seen a single 5711 in an AD window in 2015 or 2016. There was already a wait list for these in every major city and they were very difficult to get.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by CastorKrieg

This was a contrarian view for the sake of being contrarian. Hodinkee was on the SS watches bandwagon for a long, long time, exactly as others. Let me get the logic straight:

1. You get a great SS watch, the Nautilus because you enjoy it, the comfort, the way you can wear it with everything, the history, the Patek brand, etc.
2. Many people realize that the watch is really cool, and given increasing demand and steady supply the price goes up
3. ????
4. You decide that the watch you bought and/or admired is suddenly not cool because many more people are also interested in having it

This comes out to me as little bit of snobbery. Nautilus was never (I think) an indication of connoisseurship - it's a simple watch from a company very well established in the market. We are not taking Triple Split, we are not talking about indie brand.

Yeah i think if we're worrying about what other people think the hipster timeline is just as you describe. And Hodinkee being ultimately some sort of affluent hipster thing is that they people get to enjoy theirs because they had them "first."

The point that resonated with me personally, is the relative lack of value in the 5711 at market price. That it's unlikely the 5711 was very many people's "dream end all be all grail watch" until it caught hype momentum and the green representing the ultimate hype vs value when it will likely trade above a grey market 5740g.


(If the timing had been different, i was very interested in 5711 in 2012 but didn't have liquidity event until 2018 so i missed the boat. I wouldn't have sold mine at $50K because i would have paid 45% income tax on the gain, but i probably would have sold at $90K and then bought a first edition or platinum 3940 because that speaks to me as more of a grail. Even that is tricky because I prefer financial assets to physical assets (and certainly to depreciating ones) and so tying up $100K in watches just isn't for me. - Also it's very possible i would have chose the 5296 sector over a 5711 ( i did ultimately buy a 5296g in 2018) even if timing had been different )

[ts3]

Originally Posted by shkure

I didnt like the 5711 at 25k in 2016 when it was sitting in cases

You, my friend, are an expert in repeating the same incorrect claim over and over as has been discussed in this thread at length earlier.

To top it off, you are now suggesting you never wanted a 5711, whereas you told us earlier that you like the watch but were never fortunate enough to get one at retail.

What's the problem with you?

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by Flex368

I´ve read this sentence several times on here. Can someone please enlighten me where all these mysterious 5711s have been sitting at ADs across Europe?

I´ve never seen a single 5711 in an AD window in 2015 or 2016. There was already a wait list for these in every major city and they were very difficult to get.

Exactly what I was thinking, I have only ever seen 3 BLUE 5711’s ever in my life and 2 were mine. Never seen one in an AD case or in grey dealer’s either, ever. Never seen one in the wild ever, not even in central London where I visit 4 times a week for work in the last 15 years.

I need to get out more as apparently “the blue 5711 is so mass produced and hyped that everyone has one” which is why they are “so un-cool”.

I can live with hyped and uncool, as long as it’s a good “investment”.

[GreenLantern]

In Europe? No, I've always been told it was never sitting in the case across ADs in Europe back in 2015.

In the US -- yes. Absolutely.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

I was never fortunate to get a Nautilus at retail.

Bitter much?

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

I was never fortunate to get a Nautilus at retail.

Originally Posted by shkure

I didnt like the 5711 at 25k in 2016 when it was sitting in cases

BUSTED!!!!

Hi Shkure, so which is it? You're as fake as they come man. No wonder they never offered you one.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by mwireless

2. Also I was told the new version/replacement will not be launched right away. And even if it is, they are strongly considering platinum and maybe white gold as the replacement. Titanium seems unlikely. Either way the 5711 replacement (6711) will have the same difficulty of attainability plus a much higher starting price point, maybe double for the white gold and triple for platinum.

Patek as a company is really missing out on a huge premium by selling a steel watch for 33k that sells on the aftermarket for 100k. Instead of suddenly charging 50-60k for a steel watch, its easier to discontinue it and launch a replacement in white gold and platinum version for much much higher.

3. If you didn't already know, the margins are much much higher on precious metals than they are on steel pieces. I would say if you own a 5711, don't sell it! Patek really wants to protect the brand by limiting the amount of steel Nautili that are roaming free in the wild. (I've been wanting to say that for some time, LOL)

And therein lies your answer (bolding mine). Continue to sell a stainless watch for $33k that nobody can get and their obsession is more likely to take them into PM territory (especially when they compare PM price from AD vs. grey price on stainless).

[shkure]

Originally Posted by mwireless

BUSTED!!!!

Hi Shkure, so which is it? You're as fake as they come man. No wonder they never offered you one.

Who wouldnt be fortunate enough? You essentially get a 5270 for $30k. ;)

Dont be so emotional. Why dont you go ahead and list some more watches in your signature? We know you got a lot to compensate for.


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[shkure]

Originally Posted by ts3

You, my friend, are an expert in repeating the same incorrect claim over and over as has been discussed in this thread at length earlier.

To top it off, you are now suggesting you never wanted a 5711, whereas you told us earlier that you like the watch but were never fortunate enough to get one at retail.

What's the problem with you?

Who wouldn’t want one at retail??? Its a $70k gift.


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[HMHM]

The thing is... a lot of people are saying that PP may move the Nautilus 5711 upwards to PM instead of SS. I personally don’t think that it’s possible otherwise PP will be conceding the SS watch market to both AP and Rolex? Not sure if that’s a right move...

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by HMHM

The thing is... a lot of people are saying that PP may move the Nautilus 5711 upwards to PM instead of SS. I personally don’t think that it’s possible otherwise PP will be conceding the SS watch market to both AP and Rolex? Not sure if that’s a right move...

In spite of what we like to believe TS doesn’t know what the future looks like but I would see something like the annual calendar in the 5212a case and color scheme.

What I don’t understand is how Patek doesn’t make more precious metal sports watches. Like it’s as hard to get a 5168g as almost anything out there even though it’s 45 usd.

If I were optimizing the product mix I’d make steel classic watches at exorbitant prices (basically at pm prices) and pm sports watches. If people are buying them who cares what AP and Rolex are doing. They could always shift production back if necessary. Patek’s ability to sell multiple 50k watches in a way Rolex likely never will is mind blowing to me.

[pdnb]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

In spite of what we like to believe TS doesn’t know what the future looks like but I would see something like the annual calendar in the 5212a case and color scheme..

The 5726/1A is great but it is lot beefier than the 5712... luckily I don’t mind




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[scurfa]

After the email stating another treat for 5711 fans on the 12th, I wonder what it will be? Black dial to finish?


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[chmhill]

It has more useful functions than 5711. I really enjoy 5726.

Originally Posted by pdnb

The 5726/1A is great but it is lot beefier than the 5712... luckily I don’t mind




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[ts3]

Originally Posted by scurfa

After the email stating another treat for 5711 fans on the 12th, I wonder what it will be? Black dial to finish?


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You are misunderstanding or you have not read the email. The treat the email from TS referred to was the release of 5711 green on that day. It didn't state another treat for 5711 fans on the 12th. The rest of the email talks about additional novelties to be presented on the 12th. No point in spreading false rumors.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

Who wouldnt be fortunate enough? You essentially get a 5270 for $30k. ;)

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So let me get this straight? I know you love to deflect instead of discuss your doublespeak. But just answer the question... If they were sitting in cases for 25k in 2016 then how is that you weren't fortunate enough to get offered one?

Wait, were you blacklisted for being a Tire Kicker?

As for your compensating comment, if my collection makes you feel insecure, that's your problem not mine. Maybe you shouldn't be so sensitive. This is a watch forum and most people share their collections and send private messages to each other discussing certain pieces in their respective collections. You would know that if 1. you had any friends and 2. if you listed your collection. But maybe either you don't have anything worth listing or you're not proud of what you own. Either way the problem is most certainly on your end with your own insecurities.

Oh and for once try not to deflect the actual question I asked above be making personal attacks. I know it's hard when your argument doesn't have a leg to stand on but try anyway.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

I was never fortunate to get a Nautilus at retail.

Originally Posted by shkure

I didnt like the 5711 at 25k in 2016 when it was sitting in cases

Since I know you love to deflect.... I'll ask again

If they were sitting in cases for 25k in 2016 then how is that you weren't fortunate enough to get offered one?

Wait, were you blacklisted for being a Tire Kicker?

[Russell996]

This thread seems to be getting a bit confrontational and bad tempered.

Since it is a thread purely about speculation on something that might happen and not hard facts perhaps it is time for a little diplomacy and tact from everyone and let’s just agree to wait and see.

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by bonsai-man

Exactly what I was thinking, I have only ever seen 3 BLUE 5711’s ever in my life and 2 were mine. Never seen one in an AD case or in grey dealer’s either, ever. Never seen one in the wild ever, not even in central London where I visit 4 times a week for work in the last 15 years.

I´ve never seen a blue one in AD cases before. I bought my blue 5711 in 2015 from my AD and even back then he got several calls and emails every day asking about this reference.

I´ve only seen one blue 5711 in the wild at a conference in Berlin, that´s it.

[S``]

You guys must be pulling my legs' hair... Ben clymer said so!!!!

[David001]

I was talking to a salesman at a Patek AD yesterday about another watch and he asked if I had put myself down for the green 5711. I said no and he told me that if I wanted to then I should hurry up because they were closing the list shortly as they had almost 700 people on it so far.

I asked how many did they expect to get and he said maybe five a year.
If they get five a year it will take about 140yrs to satisfy current demand (and that's not counting any further orders in the next 140yrs).

That's just the green faced one, they're not taking orders for the wait lists for any other 57's because there are so many on the wait list they will be impossible to fulfil anyway.

Prices for any 57XX Nautilus won't be going down any time soon.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by David001

I was talking to a salesman at a Patek AD yesterday about another watch and he asked if I had put myself down for the green 5711. I said no and he told me that if I wanted to then I should hurry up because they were closing the list shortly as they had almost 700 people on it so far.

I asked how many did they expect to get and he said maybe five a year.
If they get five a year it will take about 140yrs to satisfy current demand (and that's not counting any further orders in the next 140yrs).

That's just the green faced one, they're not taking orders for the wait lists for any other 57's because there are so many on the wait list they will be impossible to fulfil anyway.

Prices for any 57XX Nautilus won't be going down any time soon.

That one AD has received 700 expressions of interest for the green one last week? If yes, I am surprised they established any list rather than distributing the expected 5 pieces among their very best customers before production ends this year. The number certainly seems plausible assuming a production of 2000 watches divided by the number of ADs.

[S``]

Originally Posted by ts3

That one AD has received 700 expressions of interest for the green one last week? If yes, I am surprised they established any list rather than distributing the expected 5 pieces among their very best customers before production ends this year. The number certainly seems plausible assuming a production of 2000 watches divided by the number of ADs.

Some ADs think that throwing a possibility about getting into a list would close sales...