SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

OK guys, I have a new prediction for you:

SS sports prices will finally start falling now that we're coming to the end of the pandemic.

This means that people will have less money to spend on watches because they will be busy eating out and travelling, and Rolex production will come back with a blast of increased supply.

1-3 months lets go!

I was shocked it didn’t happen during the pandemic, at this point it’s not happening. Things will soften naturally, people won’t pay 35k for a Daytona forever, it’s simply not worth it. But i don’t think we get to a point where grey prices are close to msrp.


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[wb55]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

OK guys, I have a new prediction for you:

SS sports prices will finally start falling now that we're coming to the end of the pandemic.

This means that people will have less money to spend on watches because they will be busy eating out and travelling, and Rolex production will come back with a blast of increased supply.

1-3 months lets go!

Any predictions come true yet??

[LC23]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?

what were the 2 SS models tho?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Who doesn't?

But that new prediction was just a joke.

All those people who are counting on their watches to go up in value so they can resell them and feel rich. Also those who want to hold their watches. I don't want to see values go down, I want them to go higher.

Are you sure it was a joke?

Here is my prediction: When Rolex prices their watches realistically, then you will be able to buy them at MSRP. Until then the market decides what they are worth.

[Posh Gentleman]

Desirable SS models will keep selling above msrp, for a long time to come. but that shouldn't matter to vast majority. either you really want a piece and get it whatever the means, or you just move on.

not sure why there is this much discussion on Rolex price movements. The fact that some SS models have gained $5-10k value in grey market isn't a material event. Or if someone is lucky to buy a GMT BLRO at msrp, will that really have a meaningful impact on such person's finances? doubt it.

One of my coworkers just made over $4 mil in profits this year trading bitcoins. Couple of other coworkers made over $3 mil in profits from stock investing last year. Many of my coworkers and friends that own homes in CT, NJ, NYC metro tell me their home values gained $300-500k in asking prices, just last 2 years.

I myself gained over half a mil in gains from stock investing from last year to this year. Not saying this to brag or anything, but just to highlight that people that know how to make money are making money left and right, and Rolex watches that gain $10k in value isn't some crazy outlier event that should shock anyone. It is what it is.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by beshannon

All those people who are counting on their watches to go up in value so they can resell them and feel rich. Also those who want to hold their watches. I don't want to see values go down, I want them to go higher.

Are you sure it was a joke?

Here is my prediction: When Rolex prices their watches realistically, then you will be able to buy them at MSRP. Until then the market decides what they are worth.

Maybe it wasn't a joke? But I'm definitely not dead serious about it.

I don't plan on ever selling my watches so while the increased resale value gives off a warm fuzzy feeling as an owner, on the other end it makes it very difficult to add to your collection.

[Nikrnic]

I always try to be prepared without being too paranoid. I've recently moved my investments to more low risk and less return for now due to the current administrations inflation. As far as watches go I've never bought high and only what I want for keeps. I'm waiting patiently, only a few weeks now for one from my Rolex AD, not a Daytona or hot ss yet anything in steel is not available at the moment.

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[Tensai]

The purpose of this forum is to discuss your great wealth, investment decisions and material goods. Right? Whoops, sorry, I was confused for a minute. That’s Instagram.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by beshannon

For those of us who are, these posts are a great contrarian indicator.

It was wrong from the moment it was written because it ignores a basic principle of capitalism. Growth in the economy leads to rising values of all commodities and assets.

Can you elaborate on this? Re: the sentiment being "wrong the moment it was written" I'm not clear on how, in the midst of the Dow dropping 35%, record jobless claims, surging rent/mortgage defaults, etc. it was a "sure thing" that the economy was going to grow anytime soon?

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by Tensai

The purpose of this forum is to discuss your great wealth, investment decisions and material goods. Right? Whoops, sorry, I was confused for a minute. That’s Instagram.

unless you are one of the chosen few that is able to buy multiples of (not just one piece) SS Daytona, AP RO, and Patek Nautilus at MSRP, buying watches as "investment" is a joke exercise.

you can just buy dips in S&P 500 index fund and that will likely serve you far better, with much less hassle.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Can you elaborate on this? Re: the sentiment being "wrong the moment it was written" I'm not clear on how, in the midst of the Dow dropping 35%, record jobless claims, surging rent/mortgage defaults, etc. it was a "sure thing" that the economy was going to grow anytime soon?

Was it a sure thing that people would stop buying high end luxury jewelry with disposable income?

Was it a sure thing that luxury manufacturers were going to have to slash prices to stay in business?

Those wishing for things does not make it so, there was never any question that the markets, economy and wealth of the world would grow again.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

on the other end it makes it very difficult to add to your collection.

Why?

Did people complain about the prices 10 years ago? 5 years ago?

I wonder if anyone turned down a pay raise during that time too?

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Can you elaborate on this? Re: the sentiment being "wrong the moment it was written" I'm not clear on how, in the midst of the Dow dropping 35%, record jobless claims, surging rent/mortgage defaults, etc. it was a "sure thing" that the economy was going to grow anytime soon?

Exactly. In fact, there was such a liquidity crisis playing out behind the scenes between the mortgage REITs and the banks/lenders that the Fed had to step in to rescue them both. Literally overnight the mortgage REITs became net sellers of MBS (normally they are net buyers) by the tune of tens of billions of dollars due to sudden margin calls, which equates to hundreds of billions worth of loans. This unprecedented overnight dump onto the market then created a massive explosion of margin calls for the banks and lenders, who could no longer lock loans, hedge loans already locked, issue TBD and new MBS on loans coming in or already closed. I brought everything to a screeching halt. The Fed had to play both sides like a whack a mole game for close to two months as one action that helped the mortgage REITs significantly harmed the banks and lenders, and then the action to help the banks and lenders harmed the mortgage REITs in return. Back and forth, back and forth. It took a couple of months to stabilize the credit markets and then things took off.

Then you have the forbearance disaster. The CARES Act was hastily passed and gave borrowers the ability to put their loans into forbearance. Nobody took the time to learn that even though the borrower isn't making payments, the servicer still has to pay the bond holders every single month. They also have to pay the county taxes when they come due AND pay the insurance premiums when they come due. This was such a systemic risk that the CEO of Nationstar talked with all of the other CEOs around the country to all band together and ask the govt to rescue them. The entire servicing sector faced insolvency if that would not have happened. The Fed stepped in and created an emergency fund for the servicers to access to make these payments during the term of forbearance.

My friend is one of the top hedge fund managers in the country in this wheelhouse and he said this was unlike anything they had ever experienced before in history. Completely unprecedented and different from any previous recession because entire economies were voluntarily shutting down. He said none of their modeling systems had even remotely predicted a scenario such as this because this kind of thing just doesn't happen.

It's easy to make statements such as those when you are clueless about what was going on in the background, because they sound good to the average lay person.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Was it a sure thing that people would stop buying high end luxury jewelry with disposable income?

Was it a sure thing that luxury manufacturers were going to have to slash prices to stay in business?

Those wishing for things does not make it so, there was never any question that the markets, economy and wealth of the world would grow again.

Of course, all of those things would grow again - at some point. The million dollar question was when? It took 25 years for the Dow to hit its pre-great depression values again. And the average stock took 12 years to recover to the same levels. I don't think even the wildest optimist would have bet their lives in March 2020 that we'd have full market recovery in 8 months and continuing growth for 6 months past that. Nobody could have been sure about this. What if a much more sinister mutation had occurred? What if the vaccines were a flop? We got quite lucky in a number of instances on this one. And sure, the rich just got richer over the last 12 months but there are plenty of middle class people that buy these things too. I'm not sure it's all that hard of a decision to hang on to the house you can barely afford over the watch you can barely afford.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by hiboost

of course, all of those things would grow again - at some point. The million dollar question was when? It took 25 years for the dow to hit its pre-great depression values again. And the average stock took 12 years to recover to the same levels. I don't think even the wildest optimist would have bet their lives in march 2020 that we'd have full market recovery in 8 months and continuing growth for 6 months past that. nobody could have been sure about this. What if a much more sinister mutation had occurred? What if the vaccines were a flop? We got quite lucky in a number of instances on this one. And sure, the rich just got richer over the last 12 months but there are plenty of middle class people that buy these things too. I'm not sure it's all that hard of a decision to hang on to the house you can barely afford over the watch you can barely afford.

+1

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Of course, all of those things would grow again - at some point. The million dollar question was when? It took 25 years for the Dow to hit its pre-great depression values again. And the average stock took 12 years to recover to the same levels. I don't think even the wildest optimist would have bet their lives in March 2020 that we'd have full market recovery in 8 months and continuing growth for 6 months past that. Nobody could have been sure about this. What if a much more sinister mutation had occurred? What if the vaccines were a flop? We got quite lucky in a number of instances on this one. And sure, the rich just got richer over the last 12 months but there are plenty of middle class people that buy these things too. I'm not sure it's all that hard of a decision to hang on to the house you can barely afford over the watch you can barely afford.

What if, what if, what if . . .

Every thread asking/begging/demanding that prices must come down have been wrong and will continue to be wrong.

Every day I get emails from dealers wanting to buy my watches.

Every day there are posts about social media hyping the buying and flipping of watches.

Every day there are images of people with watches doing things.

For every person that cannot buy a watch due to the price, there are dozens more waiting in line.

Every day people come here to find out the best strategies to get dealers to sell them watches.

There are posts here about which dealer, which country and which currency are the best to buy watches.

The world is awash in free money. Now if you believe that the markets being down 325 right now because interest rates are going higher will cause a massive sell off of high end luxury jewelry . . .

Good luck