Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by Bpan

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...1#post12406601

I wonder if there is a conflict of interest when you "sell" a customer's consignment piece to yourself

Do I understand the situation correctly that the gentleman in question claimed to have sold the watch for USD 99k, but this is in essence what he paid to the actual owner, who gave him the piece on consignment?

This is getting all a tad absurd;

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=869272

You were saying? Seems like for the 15202 at least the market is moving back up.

Last price was 99k. Doubt they sold it for 60k like someone tried to claim the 15202st was worth.......

Lol you can’t be serious. Just because he says “sold” at a price way above market, you think he actually sold it?

Occam’s razor and basic economics tell us it’s more likely that: a) the watch never sold, or b) he pulled the listing, or c) it sold much lower on a grey channel (which a lot of trusted sellers on this forum do)

EDIT: looked at the thread. Proves my point. It’s getting absurd. Obviously the seller couldn’t move it at his insane price and struck a deal with the original owner (and definitely for a way lower price, or it would still be on consignment).

[macrowatch]

A few thoughts and observations after being active in the market to pick up a few very select pieces...

I think the market is more or less 'functioning' properly again with dealer support underneath, and by support I don't mean manipulation (though surely that happens) but that there is a relatively agreed upon liquid price of where inventory trades hands and where they are confident they can sell a watch on the market at a margin to stay in business. When OP first stated the thread, I feel may have been 3 weeks ahead of the curve and then became a wider problem.

No doubt the overall trend is probably still down, but at least it's orderly enough with holidays around the corner that inventory is starting to move again without 15 mark downs before selling. I won't name the dealer out of respect for their business and livelihood, but those that know which piece I have been watching to buy can probably do a quick search to see what I mean.

I feel except for a remaining handful of references (product lines more broadly like aqua/naut/RO) the market has started to return to pre-hype. Which to me means if you buy a watch, especially a dress watch, get ready to take a bath if you try to liquidate. And if you buy gray, what great prices relative to list price.

I dare say it may be interesting to shop for watches again. Patek Grand comps at low 100's? Dare I say codes are interesting at 20k time only and 30k chrono? Gold panerai's in the low to mid 10's? Sport RolexPM DD at or near list. As a wearer who may not always have time to jump through the AD/BT hoops, good enough for the right deal! YMMV.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

No doubt the overall trend is probably still down, but at least it's orderly enough with holidays around the corner that inventory is starting to move again without 15 mark downs before selling. I won't name the dealer out of respect for their business and livelihood, but those that know which piece I have been watching to buy can probably do a quick search to see what I mean.

Where have you seen velocity increasing? On the contrary, many of us here continue to see a progressive slowdown.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Where have you seen velocity increasing? On the contrary, many of us here continue to see a progressive slowdown.

I work with 2-3 people in the industry to represent me (mostly to save time). So gauging off their inventory turn.

No doubt the market is slow and trend is likely down, but my comment is one of frozen with zero transactions happening versus a glacial change of some sales happening now even if it takes 3-4 months to turn inventory.

If my car has been in the parking garage for 6 months gathering dust, and I literally push it an inch, that's technically velocity increasing, but nothing to write home about while at COTA Lol.

Most importantly, I can now sleep at night knowing I at least have something respectable to wear beyond an Apple Watch Ultra at the opening night of Conker's pop up museum of epic timepieces.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I work with 2-3 people in the industry to represent me (mostly to save time). So gauging off their inventory turn.

No doubt the market is slow and trend is likely down, but my comment is one of frozen with zero transactions happening versus a glacial change of some sales happening now even if it takes 3-4 months to turn inventory.

If my car has been in the parking garage for 6 months gathering dust, and I literally push it an inch, that's technically velocity increasing, but nothing to write home about while at COTA Lol.

Most importantly, I can now sleep at night knowing I at least have something respectable to wear beyond an Apple Watch Ultra at the opening night of Conker's pop up museum of epic timepieces.

Ha! I think November and December will be very telling. Don’t think we’ll see a notable uptick (if at all), but time will tell. Though I really dislike the “investment” aspect of watches, it sure is fun staying on top of the market.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Lol even watchbox has one listed for $79k that has been sitting....

Originally Posted by Nicof

not trying to claim anything buddy. My watch has been sitting in chrono for months. That’s a fact. And I’ve literally got zero interest to lie about it.


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As I’ve said countless times, that guy is a troll who continues on with absolutely ridiculous claims with no factual basis. He’s here to either stir the pot or try to prop up his own interests only. Lol ignore him, you’re only feeding into his nonsense. Nobody responds to him maybe he’ll stop posting drivel.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Ha! I think November and December will be very telling. Don’t think we’ll see a notable uptick (if at all), but time will tell. Though I really dislike the “investment” aspect of watches, it sure is fun staying on top of the market.

I strongly feel that Nov/Dec is the turning point.

There’s either a massive uptick or this continues downward and starts to bottom out (with the market as a whole at the beginning of the year).

Upcoming holidays will be grey’s last hoorah and what most all are holding out for in my opinion. They’re totally screwed if it doesn’t uptick though, as they’ve been paying interest on these if not on consignment. So the losses will be two fold (interest + lower price)

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

I strongly feel that Nov/Dec is the turning point.

There’s either a massive uptick or this continues downward and starts to bottom out (with the market as a whole at the beginning of the year).

Upcoming holidays will be grey’s last hoorah and what most all are holding out for in my opinion. They’re totally screwed if it doesn’t uptick though, as they’ve been paying interest on these if not on consignment. So the losses will be two fold (interest + lower price)

I've had a trusted Grey tell me "pricing is stabilizing heading into the holidays". Not sure if that's fact or hope, but either way once the holiday's are over the downtrend will continue IMO.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by aa909

I've had a trusted Grey tell me "pricing is stabilizing heading into the holidays". Not sure if that's fact or hope, but either way once the holiday's are over the downtrend will continue IMO.

You know it makes me question though....

Are that many people really receiving $10, $20, even $50-$100k presents from others for the holidays? I mean I understand LV bags, and stuff hanging around the $500-$2500 range....but the dollar amount most of these luxury watches are....does the holiday season truly affect their market?

Maybe I'm just a peasant

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by dmash

You know it makes me question though....

Are that many people really receiving $10, $20, even $50-$100k presents from others for the holidays? I mean I understand LV bags, and stuff hanging around the $500-$2500 range....but the dollar amount most of these luxury watches are....does the holiday season truly affect their market?

Maybe I'm just a peasant

I think it’s more that people treat themselves lol although I have had people buy watches from me stating they would be gifts. No idea if true or bs.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by dmash

You know it makes me question though....

Are that many people really receiving $10, $20, even $50-$100k presents from others for the holidays? I mean I understand LV bags, and stuff hanging around the $500-$2500 range....but the dollar amount most of these luxury watches are....does the holiday season truly affect their market?

Maybe I'm just a peasant

Seems plausible that there would be some overlap between the spend-$100k-for-a-$25k-watch crowd and the buy-$100k-gifts crowd

[dmash]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think it’s more that people treat themselves lol although I have had people buy watches from me stating they would be gifts. No idea if true or bs.

I see, end of year bonus time I guess always rings a bell for me on people sometimes treating themselves. I guess I’ve never bought myself a present for Christmas, I wonder how that would resonate with my wife?

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Seems plausible that there would be some overlap between the spend-$100k-for-a-$25k-watch crowd and the buy-$100k-gifts crowd

Haha when you put it that way….

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by *M5

I appreciate the explanation and the kind words. Can't help but wonder though, they can't all be fishing for that one guy or gal willing to drop a lot of money over msrp. I mean aren't these people in the business of selling things? Are they just willingly holding on to stock? Seems like poor market practice

When a private seller lists a watch on chrono24 they have to prove they own the watch and have it in their possession by taking photos at certain random times on the watch face.

A dealer does not have to jump this hurdle.

Therefore, if a dealer knows "x" watch lists for 10k to the public but sells in dealer markets for 9.5k, they can put an advert on chrono24 at 10.5k for minimal risk. If they get a bite (maybe local country buyer, maybe repeat customer, maybe word of mouth recommendation) they know they can fill the order pretty quickly through their market contacts by buying at 9. 5k.

A lot of the prices on chrono 24 are inflated for this exact reason...

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[Bpan]

Originally Posted by Mercutio

Do I understand the situation correctly that the gentleman in question claimed to have sold the watch for USD 99k, but this is in essence what he paid to the actual owner, who gave him the piece on consignment?

This is getting all a tad absurd;

He didn't even claim to have sold the watch for 99k. At one point he tried to sell it for that price, but after failing to do so, bought it off the actual owner for some other lower price.
Consignment only really works because the seller wants to maximize their cut of the sale price so they have an incentive to sell as high as possible. This also maximizes the cut for the owner.
If the seller ends up selling to himself, it's fine if the owner agrees to the price. But the seller could also claim to have been unable to move the watch until the price was lowered to something like $60k and then claim his cut, which would allow him to own the watch by paying the owner $57k. Not saying that's what happened here, but it's a possibility with any consignment sale.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by aa909

I've had a trusted Grey tell me "pricing is stabilizing heading into the holidays". Not sure if that's fact or hope, but either way once the holiday's are over the downtrend will continue IMO.

I just don’t buy it. I met with my SA over the weekend who told me that over the next 1-2 years it will get “easier” to get an AP with production output increasing and demand cooling. Will there be ROs in the cases? Prob not but you may only have to wait months or a year for a non-limited piece instead of years. This only hurts gray dealers further.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by psm11

I just don’t buy it. I met with my SA over the weekend who told me that over the next 1-2 years it will get “easier” to get an AP with production output increasing and demand cooling. Will there be ROs in the cases? Prob not but you may only have to wait months or a year for a non-limited piece instead of years. This only hurts gray dealers further.

agree 100%

[dmash]

These moda guys posting ‘buy the dip!’ And the main greys bumping each other posts with ‘great price!!’ Are really cracking me up

As there’s not a single other person commenting nor are they getting sold. Market is dead at the moment

[The Stifmeister]

Originally Posted by dmash

These moda guys posting ‘buy the dip!’ And the main greys bumping each other posts with ‘great price!!’ Are really cracking me up

As there’s not a single other person commenting nor are they getting sold. Market is dead at the moment

I saw a post a month or so ago and the seller wrote “buy the dip before it goes lower”, but obviously it was a typo as he meant higher. Talk about a freudian slip.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by The Stifmeister

I saw a post a month or so ago and the seller wrote “buy the dip before it goes lower”, but obviously it was a typo as he meant higher. Talk about a freudian slip.

Yup, it's all grinding lower. A few data points I track to understand the market trends:
- Hulks are hitting MODA aggressively priced at $16K-$17K after hitting $25K+ earlier this year.
- PM Daytonas are pretty much listed for retail+tax, and steel Daytonas have dropped to the $26K-$29K range, which is a huge fall from the $50K level earlier this February!
- Nautilus 5712r (rose gold) which had hit $150K in February are listed below $100K, as low as $85K.
- Rose Gold 41mm ROs are now being listed for less than $100K, with some selling for retail+tax

The gold and platinum stuff is the last to rise and the first to fall. I'm encourage by these steep declines in the secondary market, and I'm in the camp that we start getting lot more calls from our respective ADs as we get into the second half of 2023

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

These moda guys posting ‘buy the dip!’ And the main greys bumping each other posts with ‘great price!!’ Are really cracking me up

As there’s not a single other person commenting nor are they getting sold. Market is dead at the moment

HAHA that is currently the most annoying thing about MODA. I saw a few folks comment about price (that wasn't in line with the gray market narrative) and were immediately silenced for a month or banned outright.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by aa909

Yup, it's all grinding lower. A few data points I track to understand the market trends:
- Hulks are hitting MODA aggressively priced at $16K-$17K after hitting $25K+ earlier this year.
- PM Daytonas are pretty much listed for retail+tax, and steel Daytonas have dropped to the $26K-$29K range, which is a huge fall from the $50K level earlier this February!
- Nautilus 5712r (rose gold) which had hit $150K in February are listed below $100K, as low as $85K.
- Rose Gold 41mm ROs are now being listed for less than $100K, with some selling for retail+tax

The gold and platinum stuff is the last to rise and the first to fall. I'm encourage by these steep declines in the secondary market, and I'm in the camp that we start getting lot more calls from our respective ADs as we get into the second half of 2023

Black dial SS Daytonas are even lower than $26k

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by aa909

Yup, it's all grinding lower. A few data points I track to understand the market trends:
- Hulks are hitting MODA aggressively priced at $16K-$17K after hitting $25K+ earlier this year.
- PM Daytonas are pretty much listed for retail+tax, and steel Daytonas have dropped to the $26K-$29K range, which is a huge fall from the $50K level earlier this February!
- Nautilus 5712r (rose gold) which had hit $150K in February are listed below $100K, as low as $85K.
- Rose Gold 41mm ROs are now being listed for less than $100K, with some selling for retail+tax

The gold and platinum stuff is the last to rise and the first to fall. I'm encourage by these steep declines in the secondary market, and I'm in the camp that we start getting lot more calls from our respective ADs as we get into the second half of 2023

Thank you for the compelling market snapshot, very interesting. If I may, I’m happily contributing a related data point with a view towards the holiday season - year-end bonus outlook in finance is getting bleaker every week. Speaking for Europe, Major banks have announced significant restructurings, among them CS and DB, which posted a strong quarter, and hushed voices have named more where this is under preparation. My personal view is that what’s ahead is only slowly trickling into the market.

[Mr.GL]

Amazing that a watch community has become a stock market thread. Fundamental, technical , top down and bottom-up analysis etc... .



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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Mr.GL

Amazing that a watch community has become a stock market thread. Fundamental, technical , top down and bottom-up analysis etc... .



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Tracking grey market (absurdly inflated) pricing is a nothing more than a simple observation

[RanHong]

wow! This is a very long thread!
So overall AP market prices are on the way down?

[slim]

Originally Posted by aa909

Yup, it's all grinding lower. A few data points I track to understand the market trends:
- Hulks are hitting MODA aggressively priced at $16K-$17K after hitting $25K+ earlier this year.
- PM Daytonas are pretty much listed for retail+tax, and steel Daytonas have dropped to the $26K-$29K range, which is a huge fall from the $50K level earlier this February!
- Nautilus 5712r (rose gold) which had hit $150K in February are listed below $100K, as low as $85K.
- Rose Gold 41mm ROs are now being listed for less than $100K, with some selling for retail+tax

The gold and platinum stuff is the last to rise and the first to fall. I'm encourage by these steep declines in the secondary market, and I'm in the camp that we start getting lot more calls from our respective ADs as we get into the second half of 2023

I don't have FB or access to MODA. How much are listings for AP 26574orOR(blue face) being offered for?

[Wuls]

46k for a blue Chrono 26331 on Moda. The market just imploded. MSRP next.

[sigma089]

Really looking forward to seeing results for modern and recently discontinued watches at Phillip's Geneva auction next week. One Tiffany OP, one 15202, a few Nautilus and 16202s. Going to be interesting.

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by sigma089

Really looking forward to seeing results for modern and recently discontinued watches at Phillip's Geneva auction next week. One Tiffany OP, one 15202, a few Nautilus and 16202s. Going to be interesting.

Yes I’m looking forward to it as well. Given that Phillips result tend to be on the absurd side, it’ll be interesting if this is still the case in the current market.


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