Price increase

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by ap1

Genius move would be selling for big $$ - getting back on list and get your new one for 50%off while getting new warranty period. Who is gonna be the test case? I’m all talk thus far.

And another generation of grey dealers is born.

Originally Posted by Vipes

I actually thought about this but too chicken to try it.

Fear is the path to the dark side.

[mps354]

Originally Posted by ap1

I mean look, pretend it’s away for service

hah, not that far off

[HAL330]

why sell? your watch that you love and probably want to keep and hand down to your son just went up by 10-20% overnight... even the Rose Gold will feel it as demand shifts closer to the price point.

It's a win / win for all current owners.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by HAL330

why sell? your watch that you love and probably want to keep and hand down to your son just went up by 10-20% overnight... even the Rose Gold will feel it as demand shifts closer to the price point.

It's a win / win for all current owners.

It’s like the housing runup - use ss Patek as an ATM. Just one perspective, like I said, haven’t acted on it

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by ap1

It’s like the housing runup - use ss Patek as an ATM. Just one perspective, like I said, haven’t acted on it

there will never be a bubble on a watch worn mostly by multi-millionairs.. Some of us here are hobbyists who buy these because we love them, and it's a huge purchase for us..... most buyers of PP don't even flinch when the market tanks... many are even Billionaires.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by bobernet

And another generation of grey dealers is born.



Fear is the path to the dark side.

[Will1979]

I would think that a price increase of this magnitude would bring grey prices down, not up. Assuming grey prices better reflect “market” prices, the AD price increase should reduce overall demand (how much is debatable) and thereby bring down the market (grey) price. And as the market and AD prices get closer, you might see a lot of the pure speculators drop from the waitlists and further drive demand and grey prices down.

If Patek really was concerned about Nautilus becoming too much of a focus, and they wanted to nudge people toward other models, they should have had all ADs require deposits to get on the waitlist. Not many speculators want to tie up $12k for an indefinite period of time. When the secondary market is so out of step with AD pricing, I think you get a lot of false demand — a large number of folks who have zero desire to own a Nautilus but would take every one they could get from an AD because it’s $5k or more in their pocket. Those folks (and the demand they create) go away as soon as you narrow the gap between AD and grey prices.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by Will1979

I would think that a price increase of this magnitude would bring grey prices down, not up. Assuming grey prices better reflect “market” prices, the AD price increase should reduce overall demand (how much is debatable) and thereby bring down the market (grey) price. And as the market and AD prices get closer, you might see a lot of the pure speculators drop from the waitlists and further drive demand and grey prices down.

If Patek really was concerned about Nautilus becoming too much of a focus, and they wanted to nudge people toward other models, they should have had all ADs require deposits to get on the waitlist. Not many speculators want to tie up $12k for an indefinite period of time. When the secondary market is so out of step with AD pricing, I think you get a lot of false demand — a large number of folks who have zero desire to own a Nautilus but would take every one they could get from an AD because it’s $5k or more in their pocket. Those folks (and the demand they create) go away as soon as you narrow the gap between AD and grey prices.

Already the greys are adjusting their prices up to reflect the incoming msrp increase. Opportunistic speculators picking from ADs is one thing, but the greys are getting their number, over 40.

Point taken on the second part, but I don’t see a 6k increase on a 5711 stopping any speculator from picking one up when they are going for over 40 in the grey zone. There’s just no reason for the speculator to say no at 29. But it will price out legitimate buyers who were at or near their limit before the increase. They’re not the ones picking up from the greys anyway.

[GB-man]

The intention here is to capitalize on the market price not to harm the greys. That would be achieved by increasing supply.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by GB-man

The intention here is to capitalize on the market price not to harm the greys. That would be achieved by increasing supply.

it's simple ... they saw what the watch was fetching in the free market (and with the penalty of it being "non-authored") and capitalized ion it.

Why leave money on the table? It's business 101.

[tom2517]

Well yeah greys have initially bumped up the price to adjust for the increase but will it sustain?

Take a look at the grey market for 5131P, many are listed at 180k+ but I can tell you I didn't pay that much for mine.

You can list all you want but will people pay that price? That's something we should wait and see.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Take a look at the grey market for 5131P, many are listed at 180k+ but I can tell you I didn't pay that much for mine.

I have noticed the premium on the P is nothing like as high as J,G,R - I wonder why? Many pieces listed at 22-30% premium.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by HAL330

there will never be a bubble on a watch worn mostly by multi-millionairs.. Some of us here are hobbyists who buy these because we love them, and it's a huge purchase for us..... most buyers of PP don't even flinch when the market tanks... many are even Billionaires.

The end users might not be in a rush to sell, but dealers would once new demand dries up and they become available at ADs (possibly with a discount when the SHTF.)

I remember when the 5960P and 5980/1A first came out, in Hong Kong people were easily paying 100% premiums for both models. 2008 came, and the bubble burst - you bet dealers adjusted their prices downwards as they became available at ADs (who is going to buy such an expensive watch after losing 50% of your portfolio?)

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I have noticed the premium on the P is nothing like as high as J,G,R - I wonder why? Many pieces listed at 22-30% premium.

Since P is more expensive anyhow the bracalet is a nice addition but it looks equal or better on strap , basically they charge the same amount of premium for every metal but of course in percent that s different.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by tng11

The end users might not be in a rush to sell, but dealers would once new demand dries up and they become available at ADs (possibly with a discount when the SHTF.)

I remember when the 5960P and 5980/1A first came out, in Hong Kong people were easily paying 100% premiums for both models. 2008 came, and the bubble burst - you bet dealers adjusted their prices downwards as they became available at ADs (who is going to buy such an expensive watch after losing 50% of your portfolio?)

first off you're talking about a watch "first coming out" and that is ALWAYS going be a different game than a watch that has been around in one form or another for 4 decades (5711)... secondly, the behavior of buyers in Asia (Hong Kong being a prime example) and the behavior of people in Europe and the USA (Patek's prime markets) are nothing the same.

There will be no 5711 Bubble... just a softening of the demand as price goes up. This is the LAW of supply vs demand.

[Xerxes77]

For 5711 the price will increase with 20%! I don’t know if this increase are for all PP watch!
But guys why we are upset? If on grey market the lowest price for a 5711 are 29000€ when mrsp price are 22000€ why Patek don’t earn some extra money?

[kultschar]

I think only people upset are the ones waiting on a list which is understandable

[AK797]

Originally Posted by kultschar

I think only people upset are the ones waiting on a list which is understandable

Price rise is understandable but obvs a tough break, would have been gutted to be buying my 5164 now too, but not so much if I had a 5711a in my back pocket.

[Ichiran]

Tim Mosso suggested a few good alternatives in his recent video to the 5711 -

1) 5167 in bracelet (freely available now in many ADs and grey at reasonable pricing; full bracelet; same movement; similar dimensions plus porthole bezel),

2) VC Overseas (sizable discount; Geneva seal on in-house movement; good bracelet with strap options), and

3) AP Royal Oak 15400 (reasonable pricing and cheaper than 5711, best bracelet and iconic GG design).

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Tim Mosso suggested a few good alternatives in his recent video to the 5711 -

1) 5167 in bracelet (freely available now in many ADs and grey at reasonable pricing; full bracelet; same movement; similar dimensions plus porthole bezel),

2) VC Overseas (sizable discount; Geneva seal on in-house movement; good bracelet with strap options), and

3) AP Royal Oak 15400 (reasonable pricing and cheaper than 5711, best bracelet and iconic GG design).

He left out the 15202 that seems like the no brainer alternative.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by GB-man

He left out the 15202 that seems like the no brainer alternative.

Yeah that's the real alt, all others are flawed in comparison; too strange looking, too weak resale, too large.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by AK797

Yeah that's the real alt, all others are flawed in comparison; too strange looking, too weak resale, too large.

The VC overseas just doesn't have that juice, and it is strange looking. And the 5167 bracelet doesn't look too far off from your basic Oyster bracelet.

[walds11]

Originally Posted by GB-man

He left out the 15202 that seems like the no brainer alternative.

Or even better, the 15300 blue dial

[Helmi]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Tim Mosso suggested a few good alternatives in his recent video to the 5711 -



1) 5167 in bracelet (freely available now in many ADs and grey at reasonable pricing; full bracelet; same movement; similar dimensions plus porthole bezel),



2) VC Overseas (sizable discount; Geneva seal on in-house movement; good bracelet with strap options), and



3) AP Royal Oak 15400 (reasonable pricing and cheaper than 5711, best bracelet and iconic GG design).

With my full respect, those who want 5711 are most likely not looking nor will be happy with an alternative. No matter how good that alternative is. It is an obsession or itch or fever or whatever you want to call it that won't be fixed unless by having it.

Not rational I agree but what is rational in this whole watch hobby thing?

Same applies to the Daytona by the way

[LitzDoc]

What is a 15202 ? Which brand? Any pics please? Sorry. Don’t know the watch


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[Helmi]

Originally Posted by LitzDoc

What is a 15202 ? Which brand? Any pics please? Sorry. Don’t know the watch


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It is the famous audimars piguet royal oak Jumbo 39mm. The closest iteration to the original genta designed royal oak even before he designed the original nautilus. Iconic watch. Very slim. Fantastic IMHO. Many consider it the twin brother of the 5711 and always in head to head comparisons.

Some photos

[LitzDoc]

Thanks. Wow. That’s a beautiful watch.


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[Watch Admirer]

5711 is a tough to love at first sight watch IMHO. It doesn't have much going on, it is just timeless and increases in value but from a pure design perspective, i honestly don't see it... The 5711r though is a different animal.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by LitzDoc

Thanks. Wow. That’s a beautiful watch.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You should see it in person. It is better than pics!

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Helmi

With my full respect, those who want 5711 are most likely not looking nor will be happy with an alternative. No matter how good that alternative is. It is an obsession or itch or fever or whatever you want to call it that won't be fixed unless by having it.

Not rational I agree but what is rational in this whole watch hobby thing?

Same applies to the Daytona by the way

the best alternative for 5711 is a 5711