Crystal Ball Question

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by padi56

The one you want to own and wear in good health for many years that's the most important.

This.

[Joearch]

5 digit LV was only made for 3-4 years celebrating 50 years of the Submarine. I would say it is more unique. Something about it is special for me.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by Rollei35

anyone thinking any rolex pieces are collectible is delusional.

But Rolexes are collectible because people collect them. Most of us here have a collection of watches - ergo they're collectable. Of course not every watch will rise in value, but that's about investment which is a very different thing to being collectable.

[Inthesticks]

IMO any SS submariner with a bezel color variation will be more desirable in the future - assuming Rolex follows their trend of discontinuing references after a few years.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Rollei35

anyone thinking any rolex pieces are collectible is delusional.

Yet most people on TRF certainly have some type of 'collection'

[learningtofly]

It's probably impossible to talk about "collectability" without considering the issue of value/investment potential. That's just the way it is, and likely always will be.

Of course, outside of environments like this one, regarding watches as a kind of sub-asset class is perfectly normal, as is investing in the silly things. We just find it all a bit... vulgar, and some like to jump on their particularly high horse at the very mention of "the I word".

[KatGirl]

Not an SD fan, and I don’t think I’m alone, in my dislike of that model. I believe the LV is way more popular, thus more valuable, and more collectible. Also, no need for a crystal ball here, just common sense.

Kat


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[codecow]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

Neither - these mass produced references will not be collectible.

This.

[Laostuh]

Originally Posted by Mystro

On pure value speculation alone, the 16610LV will be ahead by a lot. More mass appeal and wearability with its smaller size. Submariners in general have significantly higher appeal to the masses over a Sea Dweller.
That said the LV already established a rather high premium even before it’s discontinued so it’s an easy prediction. IMO.

Agree with this. Wearability has a lot to do with it. Due the Sea Dwellers size, that puts us with smaller wrists out of the equation.

[Kenny G]

Of these two, I’d say LV…but i wouldn’t expect either of these to rise much in their short to mid-term collectability value.

I’d actually expect both to drop over the next 12 months…

[jimcameron]

Don't worry about what will happen to your watch 10 years from now. By then we may all be dead.

[Yobber76]

I would think the LV.

[Gaussian]

Originally Posted by KatGirl

I believe the LV is way more popular, thus more valuable, and more collectible. Also, no need for a crystal ball here, just common sense.

Kat


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More popular today does not ensure that anything will be more valuable tomorrow. Today’s treasures are often a result of what wasn’t valued yesterday.

The upcoming generation of watch connoisseurs will likely have tastes that are not the same as you and I have today too.

Regardless of popularity though, I see about 1/5 the number of 116600, with box and papers available than there are gold GMTs. There are only 16 such Seadwellers available stateside on Chrono24 right now.

With such low numbers of quality 116600 Seadwellers available, it wouldn’t take a big shift in demand to impact the already inflated prices.

[time4no1]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

More popular today does not ensure that anything will be more valuable tomorrow. Today’s treasures are often a result of what wasn’t valued yesterday.

Agree completely. If I'm not mistaken, there was a time when no one wanted a Daytona early in its product lifecycle.

[Tambo19]

Its hard to predict the future, but for me the Kermit-16610LN being a limited edition may have a higher potential for collectibility.

[Gaussian]

Originally Posted by Tambo19

Its hard to predict the future, but for me the Kermit-16610LN being a limited edition may have a higher potential for collectibility.

If we are taking bets based on population numbers, there are probably 3X as many 16610LV Kermits floating around versus the 116600.

But as others have said, we all need to buy and wear what we like, not what might be worth more in the future. If we make money with this hobby, it’s a nice bonus.


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[maliya1]

Originally Posted by georgew

yep, it is just too big for most people, and does not have the hype the sub does

While Thom Hogan's insights are undoubtedly valuable, the size of the camera market might make it less accessible for the average consumer. It's not just about technical aspects; hype and trends also play a significant role. The subculture around certain camera brands or models can overshadow their technical merits. Striking a balance between technical excellence and market appeal is crucial for widespread adoption. Perhaps bridging the gap between niche expertise and mainstream excitement could enhance the overall photography experience, making advanced technology more accessible and appealing to a broader audience.

[Aditi5897]

Originally Posted by travisb

The LV already is. That said, it would play no role in which one I would buy if considering the two.

Hi,
It's great that the LV is already in consideration, but ultimately, its presence wouldn't sway my decision between the two options. My choice would be based on other factors rather than the brand alone. Quality, functionality, and personal preference would be my main considerations when making a decision.

[yessir69]

Kermit.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

Neither - these mass produced references will not be collectible.

Of course they’re collectible. Mass produced G-Shocks are collectible. Baseball cards are mass produced and they’re collectible.


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[Kevin of Larchmont]

I have a group of watches that I own solely because I like to wear them. I also have a group of shoes that I own for the same reason. Are either of these collections? I don’t consider them so but others might classify them that way. Because I don’t want to wear either of the watches in the OPs post I am indifferent to them and don’t consider either one collectible.

[Texasjim]

Originally Posted by Linuxpenguins

Sea Dweller 116600 (SD4k) - Not 126600.

Yup…116600 is a future collectible