Peak Hype

[Harry-57]

If I like a watch it doesn't make any difference to me if it is hyped or ignored. Same for any watch I don't like or am not interested in. In terms of possible secondary market value, hype tends to help retain or increase potential value. Academic to me because I buy them to love and wear the hell out of in the long term.

[Langnam]

I must’ve peaked a few years ago. If you can’t go to an AD, look at, handle or otherwise enjoy the watch in a shop without creating a special “relationship”, then I’m not interested.

I own 4 Rolex and bought them the normal way.

Any other way is for the birds.

Never had fomo, just gave up on Rolex.


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[Cavester]

Trouble is, every man and his dog seems to have a Rolex these days. Many years ago someone like me wouldn't have been able to afford. Seems more people can afford more now. I even seen a pub doorman wearing a full gold Daytona today.

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[Driver8]

While hype and all the rest of the social media nonsense means absolutely nothing to me as my interest in Rolex considerably predates social media, I can't help thinking it also simultaneously "chavs-up" and "dumbs-down" the brand... and that is a real shame IMO.

Groups on FB really highlight the issue of the huge influx of idiots with money but zero class, and no desire for knowledge or appreciation for the brand and its history other than "the flex". (Incidentally I can't STAND the use of the word "flex"; it makes me curl my toes in my shoes whenever I read it! Childish nonsense IMO).

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Driver8

While hype and all the rest of the social media nonsense means absolutely nothing to me as my interest in Rolex considerably predates social media, I can't help thinking it also simultaneously "chavs-up" and "dumbs-down" the brand... and that is a real shame IMO.

Groups on FB really highlight the issue of the huge influx of idiots with money, but zero class, and no desire for knowledge or appreciation for the brand and its history other than "the flex". (Incidentally I can't STAND the use of the word "flex"; it makes me curl my toes in my shoes whenever I read it! Childish nonsense IMO).

Completely agree with the chav thing.
Big shame about this. Social media (where narcissists like to "flex") is to blame. I agree with other posters who say the hype has only just got started. We're nowhere near the peak.

[Alimamy]

I stopped by one of my local boutiques today and left feeling sad; then quickly got over it because it's just a watch. I would like to complain about the state of things and how it hurts the brand etc. but the truth is I still really love Rolex watches. If an AD SA would give me a call announcing the watch has arrived, I will be excited and buy.

I really wonder what is going on over there in Rolex HQ. Rolex became popular and a part of culture by making and selling many watches over the decades, I am not sure the experience today will be good long-term. But what do I know? I'm not a luxury marketing expert.

Meanwhile I am enjoying purchases new and vintage from other manufactures... Odd times, where we try to say how long we've been into watches pre-hype, and taut our horological knowledge and worthiness of a sell. As a watch hobbyist, I am trying to not fixate on Rolex and maybe this crazy market will pass or maybe not.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

It's The New normal.

Anytime this has ever been said about some type of tangible good which is on a hot streak/trendy, it always has come back down. Will Rolex watches be the sole exception in the HISTORY of consumer goods? I doubt it.


Also those who compare a luxury trinket to the stock market are being ridiculous. That’s not remotely comparable.


Lastly what others are underestimating is when/if the tides turn, people will get out and it will snowball and spiral downwards (in my opinion). Rolex watches are not like the stock market, nor Bitcoin nor even a commodity such as gold. People don’t view them as prices ‘dipping’ and you can’t purchase them daily on your cell phone/computer. Prices start trending downwards for multiple months people will jump ship to sell as close to the peak as possible and it’s going to pulverize grey prices (again my opinion).

Just be careful out there lads, ever having false security in a Rolex watch being a ‘safe’ store of value is an incredibly risky proposition. People are forgetting that Rolex SS could be had brand new for 20% under MSRP just 5 years ago.

[Tensai]

Don’t be concerned.

This forum and the social media hypsters are a tiny group of people.
99.99% of people could CARE LESS about watches and what watches you wear.

It’s all just for fun, until it stops being fun.
Enjoy!

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by Tensai

Don’t be concerned.



This forum and the social media hypsters are a tiny group of people.

99.99% of people could CARE LESS about watches and what watches you wear.



It’s all just for fun, until it stops being fun.

Enjoy!

Couldn't care less

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[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dmash

Anytime this has ever been said about some type of tangible good which is on a hot streak/trendy, it always has come back down. Will Rolex watches be the sole exception in the HISTORY of consumer goods? I doubt it.


Also those who compare a luxury trinket to the stock market are being ridiculous. That’s not remotely comparable.


Lastly what others are underestimating is when/if the tides turn, people will get out and it will snowball and spiral downwards (in my opinion). Rolex watches are not like the stock market, nor Bitcoin nor even a commodity such as gold. People don’t view them as prices ‘dipping’ and you can’t purchase them daily on your cell phone/computer. Prices start trending downwards for multiple months people will jump ship to sell as close to the peak as possible and it’s going to pulverize grey prices (again my opinion).

Just be careful out there lads, ever having false security in a Rolex watch being a ‘safe’ store of value is an incredibly risky proposition. People are forgetting that Rolex SS could be had brand new for 20% under MSRP just 5 years ago.

Not at all. And nver 20 percent under for SS Daytona. Always at premium since the 90s over 30 YEARS AGO Always at premium for MORE RECENT SS models....increasing prices for 5 years, trend upwards...last several decades value of SS rolex watches have risen... The prices are not going to go up indefinitely, but if someone is waiting around hoping to get these watches at MSRP or at a discount, it's just extremely extremely unlikely to happen.

The trend of SS Rolex watches going up has been the case FOR SEVERAL DECADES.

What prompted this thread was not surprise or confusion, it was disappointment and frustration, after years of waiting and hoping, and not being able to spend or willing to spend the money AND NOT be part of the VIP, or the lucky group, being subject to the games, lies and the BS, etc, to then turn and be bombarded with the the flexing and the boasting on Instagram and even on trf -- It can become quite irritating or annoying to the consumer. It is what it is.

Stay healthy everyone.

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[dmash]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

Not at all. And nver 20 percent under for SS Daytona. Always at premium since the 90s over 30 YEARS AGO Always at premium for MORE RECENT SS models....increasing prices for 5 years, trend upwards...last several decades value of SS rolex watches have risen... The prices are not going to go up indefinitely, but if someone is waiting around hoping to get these watches at MSRP or at a discount, it's just extremely extremely unlikely to happen.

The trend of SS Rolex watches going up has been the case FOR SEVERAL DECADES.

What prompted this thread was not surprise or confusion, it was disappointment and frustration, after years of waiting and hoping, and not being able to spend or willing to spend the money AND NOT be part of the VIP, or the lucky group, being subject to the games, lies and the BS, etc, to then turn and be bombarded with the the flexing and the boasting on Instagram and even on trf -- It can become quite irritating or annoying to the consumer. It is what it is.

Stay healthy everyone.

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You realize Daytona =\ SS Rolex right? Daytona is more of a niche

And actually Daytona could be had at discount years back, so could Nautilus, Royal Oak, anything really.

And you’re actually wrong about values tending upward for decades. Retail price sure, but not Grey prices. Before 08 watches were hot, it went down. Only really came back up strong around ‘15-16. Aside from Panerai which had its day around 2010.

Mean no offense, but not sure how long you’ve personally been in the game but what you’re saying is flat out not correct and kind of reads like info you just googled.

Cheers

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dmash

You realize Daytona =\ SS Rolex right? Daytona is more of a niche



And actually Daytona could be had at discount years back, so could Nautilus, Royal Oak, anything really.

Wrong...not SS daytonas... Yes, the 5711 could be had at a discount, around 16,000 to $18,000,That was around 2014 or so.. around 110k to 125k today. Discounts for many AP stainless steel Royal oaks as well. Yes.

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[bob sims]

The "hype" has been forever. Al Capone wore a Rolex Prince. Elvis and John Wayne wore King Midas watches.
30 years ago, if I am recalling correctly, you could get stainless Datejusts and Subs for under $2000????????????
And people were complaining and saying that price would't last. They were right about that!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

Wrong...not SS daytonas... Yes, the 5711 could be had at a discount, around 16,000 to $18,000,That was around 2014 or so.. around 110k to 125k today. Discounts for many AP stainless steel Royal oaks as well. Yes.

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You really don’t know what you’re talking about and ill leave it at that.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dmash

You really don’t know what you’re talking about and ill leave it at that.

Very impressive. Similar to some of your other posts. God bless your heart, my man.

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[dmash]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

Very impressive. Similar to some of your other posts. God bless your heart, my man.

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It’s not a personal attack. You’re just relaying incorrect historical info. That’s just a fact.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s not a personal attack. You’re just relaying incorrect historical info. That’s just a fact.

Good showing...all made up. Yes. Nice!

I agreed with you re the Nautilus and AP. And then gave great detail about the year and cost of acquisition of 5711s around 2014 and 2015 to provide an example. And then went back decades with some other examples and history.

You make a lot of sense. Very good. I hope you get the timepieces which you desire.

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[dmash]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

Good showing...all made up. Yes. Nice!

I agreed with you re the Nautilus and AP. And then gave great detail about the year and cost of acquisition of 5711s around 2014 and 2015 to provide an example. And then went back decades with some other examples and history.

You make a lot of sense. Very good. I hope you get the timepieces which you desire.

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[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dmash

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[polaris72]

Originally Posted by 77T

Might be easier finding a Skoda.


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How about Trabant or Wartburg the pride of old East Germany?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

Wrong...not SS daytonas... Yes, the 5711 could be had at a discount, around 16,000 to $18,000,That was around 2014 or so.. around 110k to 125k today. Discounts for many AP stainless steel Royal oaks as well. Yes.

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used 116520s were available at slight discounts. some quick searches show used ones in the 8-9k range in 2010 when the msrp was 10.4k. brand new ones were going for basically msrp or a little bit under it. the 116500 was never below retail, it came out and went straight onto waitlists

true for 5711s and ROs though

[henrylee]

I remember 2019 before COVID, people saying it was the peak of hype

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by huncho

used 116520s were available at slight discounts. some quick searches show used ones in the 8-9k range in 2010 when the msrp was 10.4k. brand new ones were going for basically msrp or a little bit under it. the 116500 was never below retail, it came out and went straight onto waitlists

true for 5711s and ROs though

So unworn for MSRP or above and AD no discounts for SS daytonas since the 90s, sounds about right

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[dmash]

Originally Posted by huncho

used 116520s were available at slight discounts. some quick searches show used ones in the 8-9k range in 2010 when the msrp was 10.4k. brand new ones were going for basically msrp or a little bit under it. the 116500 was never below retail, it came out and went straight onto waitlists

true for 5711s and ROs though

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

So unworn for MSRP or above and AD no discounts for SS daytonas since the 90s, sounds about right

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You tell him that they could be found under MSRP and he somehow reads that as ‘above’.

And that’s just with a quick search. I know for a fact (as in actually experiencing it) that I could get discounts on them straight from AD’s 10 years ago.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

So unworn for MSRP or above and AD no discounts for SS daytonas since the 90s, sounds about right

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for 2010 and new yeah, although in 2008-9 there were some listings for around 500-1000 under msrp. none were above msrp at that time but either way you would take a bit of a bath if you wanted to resell them (probably a 3k or so loss). it does look like it's been the "safest" watch to buy over history though

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by huncho

for 2010 and new yeah, although in 2008-9 there were some listings for around 500-1000 under msrp. none were above msrp at that time but either way you would take a bit of a bath if you wanted to resell them (probably a 3k or so loss). it does look like it's been the "safest" watch to buy over history though

Originally Posted by dmash

You tell him that they could be found under MSRP and he somehow reads that as ‘above’.

And that’s just with a quick search. I know for a fact (as in actually experiencing it) that I could get discounts on them straight from AD’s 10 years ago.

Then I have been corrected. I will take your word for it.

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[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

You tell him that they could be found under MSRP and he somehow reads that as ‘above’.

And that’s just with a quick search. I know for a fact (as in actually experiencing it) that I could get discounts on them straight from AD’s 10 years ago.

yeah lol and it's hard to search with the search function issues nowadays, basically just throws you into 2010 and older but i know i've seen them for discounts before. everything back then was being discounted like crazy and people seem to be so blinded by their hate for greys nowadays that they forgot how no one shopped at ADs back then because there was no point with how cheap you could get everything from greys

[dmash]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah lol and it's hard to search with the search function issues nowadays, basically just throws you into 2010 and older but i know i've seen them for discounts before. everything back then was being discounted like crazy and people seem to be so blinded by their hate for greys that they forgot how no one shopped at ADs back then because there was no point with how cheap you could get everything from greys

Yeah it truly was. People who bought ‘Kermits’ and Daytonas and ‘Pepsis’ and ‘Cokes’ made a killing if they held onto them until current day.


Don’t get me started about regret of being offered a 5711 at discount at a Patek dealer in 2014, and passing it up as I wasn’t financially ready at that point. Never in my life did I think we’d be here lol. I remember talking about it with my watch buddies at that point and people were still calling it ‘an ugly 70s watch’ and ‘why would you buy that’.

This is another reason I think a lot of this (eventually) collapses. We’re not discussing timepieces which we’re trading well above MSRP since inception with a lot of these models. A lot of them were considered ugly and bad sellers.

[YoMike951]

As long as I'm paying MSRP it doesn't matter.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah it truly was. People who bought ‘Kermits’ and Daytonas and ‘Pepsis’ and ‘Cokes’ made a killing if they held onto them until current day.


Don’t get me started about regret of being offered a 5711 at discount at a Patek dealer in 2014, and passing it up as I wasn’t financially ready at that point. Never in my life did I think we’d be here lol. I remember talking about it with my watch buddies at that point and people were still calling it ‘an ugly 70s watch’ and ‘why would you buy that’.

This is another reason I think a lot of this (eventually) collapses. We’re not discussing timepieces which we’re trading well above MSRP since inception with a lot of these models. A lot of them were considered ugly and bad sellers.

i agree that things will eventually collapse but not to what it was pre 2015-16. i personally think msrp is the new floor for almost all models unless we see a global economic collapse like in 2008 (or worse) and premiums (20-50% depending on models) will be normal. i do think whatever is happening with the 5990/5980/5711, 15202/15407 and daytona tier of watches is a bubble though and that's the part i believe will collapse. who is actually paying 300k+ for these pateks? i understand paying like 50k for a rolex that goes for 35k because 50k is basically the same income bracket being targeted and relatively achievable through investments and bonuses and what not, but i just can't even process spending 400k on a watch that costs 100k. it just bumps it up multiple income brackets