Rolex Supply Problem Again!

[bayerische]

Oh and the Hulk wait time is now 11 years according to the Helsinki AD.

[Batmannr1]

Many high in demand SS sport models go to the grey market via AD. Greys help ADs with offloading difficult to sell watches (not only Rolex models, also other high end brands).
As reward greys can get an in demand SS sport Rolex at MSRP and flip it.
Tricky bizniz, but reality.

[bayerische]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

Many high in demand SS sport models go to the grey market via AD. Greys help ADs with offloading difficult to sell watches (not only Rolex models, also other high end brands).
As reward greys can get an in demand SS sport Rolex at MSRP and flip it.
Tricky bizniz, but reality.

I'm sure this happens, but it isn't the norm. Greys over here are filled with SS-sports, not difficult to sell items.

[Lord Hectic]

Wait list in Sydney...100 years.

[Giangos]

Originally Posted by joshua.pearl3

2 months since I ordered my Daytona white dial... Still not received. I have a feeling it will take a loooong time..

I wouldn’t even start counting the months until at least 1 year has elapsed. Sorry! I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt it.


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[Harry-57]

Waiting time for Hulks at my AD are unknown. They can only estimate, based on previous deliveries and trends. They are not confident that everyone on the list will get one. But they don't know.

What they do know is that in 2019 they are getting at least 4 SS Sky Dwellers. Call it whatever you like. "Shortage" seems as appropriate as anything.

[klenboy]

There is no supply problem. Demand is definitely through the roof. My local AD gets shipments of SS units every week but they never make it to the shelf because they are allocated for their waitlisted clients.

[watchmaker]

Originally Posted by peterpl

No shortage never has been. We are all getting taken for a ride by ADs and Grays. If you still cant see that well there is nothing helping you.

So by the same logic when a customer expects a discount on a PM piece or any model/brand that isn’t a fast mover then they are taking ADs and greys for a ride too?

Three years ago the consensus on this forum was it was laughable to pay an AD full retail on anything other than a Daytona. It is how it is (for now), suck it up.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by Roll X

Actually, much more interesting to read than:
1. What are eating with your Rolex?
2. What are you drinking with your Rolex?
3. Can I mow the lawn while wearing a Rolex?
4. Which Rolex goes best with my boots?
5. Here's a picture of my 43 Rolexes. Which one do you think I should sell?

Even worse, number 5 is often "what should I add next?"

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[Littletommy]

Popped into the AD in Daytona Beach, FL yesterday & told him I was looking for a 'Pepsi'. He looked at me like I had a tail!

Actually, he was very pleasant but the cupboard was bare.

[crownprince]

Originally Posted by zengineer

If they were easy to get, half their customers would lose interest.

So Rolex is playing hard to get like a high school cheerleader!

[Pam673]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Waiting time for Hulks at my AD are unknown. They can only estimate, based on previous deliveries and trends. They are not confident that everyone on the list will get one. But they don't know.

What they do know is that in 2019 they are getting at least 4 SS Sky Dwellers. Call it whatever you like. "Shortage" seems as appropriate as anything.

Assuming all the lawyers, doctors, investment bankers, engineers around your area now wanting to have one from the same AD. Say 100 people on the waiting list...it will take 25 years before the last few got theirs

[Pam673]

Originally Posted by Littletommy

Popped into the AD in Daytona Beach, FL yesterday & told him I was looking for a 'Pepsi'. He looked at me like I had a tail!

Actually, he was very pleasant but the cupboard was bare.

Tell him you got half a mil to blow right now and he will say - of course we have one...

[WatchLurv]

There is a supply problem. Rolex isn't supplying 4 SS Subs a month to an AD anymore. Perhaps only 1.

Greys hold stock because there isn't enough supply from Rolex. Greys also buys 4 Datejusts for 1 Hulk. Are you willing to do that? Then yes, you will get your Hulk. The answer normally is "No" you are not willing to do that, so either pay the premium or wait 10 years.

Going back 2015 there weren't a supply problem. You could find an SS Sub on display and it would be readily available next week for the next customer. When it was on display, greys would bargain 20% off it, whilst you as an end-customer would maybe get 10%. Would you go to the grey to get 15% off the SS Sub? Yes. Same situation - Now you just can't get the watch.

The world didn't suddenly become richer. Back then ADs were just able to supply the SS models, now they pick customers that can meet their salestargets and as a walk-in end-client you are not supporting their business per se; license removed for underperforming.

Stop forcing the idea that an AD is getting 4 BLNR, 4 Hulks, 4 Subs and 4 Daytonas every month. Even if they are, they get bundled with platinum, gold and crappy models that collect dust.

[nGage7962]

There is no Rolex supply problem, there is only a Rolex supply strategy.

[subcsteve]

hot off the press from a UK AD

They have 90 on the list for a date sub and currently get x 4 each month (approx). They have closed the list so realistically looking at 1-2 years. Demand is sky high, supply is the same and unless Rolex up-supply nothing will change...unless the economy tanks!

Rolex are actively monitoring eBay etc and notify any AD's if they see these being sold soon after purchase so buying history is key at UK AD's. If you are known to them and an enthusiast you move up the list as you are less likely to flip and in doing so give the AD a bad name with Rolex.

This sounds very fair to me, good to see this AD is doing this and hopefully my buying history will get me a sub a little quicker...which will join my small collection and never leave.

[SpeedyTuomas]

Originally Posted by joshua.pearl3

Sadly no relationship and no purchase history.. The AD hasn't even responded to my 'happy new year' emails... But no other AD would add me to a list.. Some ADs told me straight away the only way to get it is through bundling.

I think it should go the other way around, my friend - you should get holiday greetings from them.

[watchmaker]

Originally Posted by SpeedyTuomas

I think it should go the other way around, my friend - you should get holiday greetings from them.

I respectfully disagree. He is waiting for a SS Daytona from an AD he has no purchase history with.

If an AD has to send holiday greetings to everyone that fits that description by the time you finish 2019's emails it is time to start 2020's.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by subcsteve

hot off the press from a UK AD

They have 90 on the list for a date sub and currently get x 4 each month (approx). They have closed the list so realistically looking at 1-2 years. Demand is sky high, supply is the same and unless Rolex up-supply nothing will change...unless the economy tanks!

Rolex are actively monitoring eBay etc and notify any AD's if they see these being sold soon after purchase so buying history is key at UK AD's. If you are known to them and an enthusiast you move up the list as you are less likely to flip and in doing so give the AD a bad name with Rolex.

This sounds very fair to me, good to see this AD is doing this and hopefully my buying history will get me a sub a little quicker...which will join my small collection and never leave.

Who are you quoting from? An Aurum affiliate? They control the supply from their HQ in Leicester as to which shop gets what and to who's on that "list". No AD gets 4 date subs a month unless they're a tier 1 shop...Most aren't.

Physical supply (as mentioned, Rolex supply strategy above) has decreased to the ADs. Just a fact that doesn't seem to chew well with the crowd in here or people are naive enough to believe that demand went up 4-fold. If demand went up that much for steel, why hasn't gold gone up the same way or was it only the people with a 40,000 GBP/year income that suddenly had the urge to buy more steel?

Rolex can monitor all they want. That's why serial numbers are blurred out, so they can't look up who it was sold from. Admittedly, Rolex does employ "secret shoppers", but they don't just find a watch on eBay and trace it back to a recently sold piece in Newcastle. Whoever fed you that is clearly trying to use scare-tactics.

[Playinwittime]

I don’t believe the supply is at its peak and the same as always, but demand has increased that much overnight and ADs are simply putting away in demand pieces. Not by a long shot. Supply has been engineered by Rolex to become scarcer and, yes, ADs are probably putting away in demand pieces to use as bait to get more future business. However, ADs wouldn’t need to do that if supply was at the same rate. Sorry, there’s no way that demand, which has been very high in recent years did an overnight exponential leap. So, yes, supply has been restricted by Rolex, make no mistake about it. Patek has done the same as has AP.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Playinwittime

I don’t believe the supply as at its peak, but demand has increased and ADs are simply putting away in demand pieces. Not by a long shot. Supply has been engineered by Rolex to become scarcer and, yes, ADs are probably putting away in demand pieces to use as bait to get more future business. However, ADs wouldn’t need to do that if supply was at the same rate. Sorry, there’s no way that demand, which has been very high in recent years did an overnight exponential leap. So, yes, supply has been restricted by Rolex.

Boom. My point

Somehow the theory by the "demand"-people in here states that year-on-year the demand has gone up exponentially. Suddenly took a vertical increase from "nothing" happening in the world.

Roll back to 2015 when you could get a Hulk and BLNR for discount and they were on DISPLAY... Funny how times have changed.

ADs need to eat, so they bundle a high demand piece such as a Hulk with their less-demanded watches such as a datejust with an ugly flower in it, or a 2 SS Daytona package for an iced pearlmaster that no one would ever consider to buy. Sure they get the SS in their shipment, but they will only keep receiving them if they keep selling ugly flowers or pearlmasters. The people waiting around on the list will just keep waiting. This accounts for most ADs worldwide. Im sure Aurum shoots a lot of their stock out through their backdoor too even though they're corporate and their sub-ADs in store won't be willing to broker any deals (and I've tried).

[Rokoru]

Originally Posted by 101031-28

was recently at rolex boutique (tourneau) in san francisco, no ss. Same situation this past saturday, at local ad on ventana row in san jose. I honestly don't believe in the shortage, yes increased demand may play a factor, but i have a feeling ads keep the hot pieces in the back for vip customers or for the greys that take the not so hot pieces off the ad hands. My 2c

+1

[richard371]

Unfortunately nothing will change here unless we have a major global recession which we don’t want so for now the ADs are distribution centers and the grey markets are the actual ADs setting the retail price for most people. It’s is odd but it is what it is. It’s what Rolex wants imho.

[fsprow]

This is just supply and demand with a smart producer, like buying a new Ferrari.

To obtain an "in demand" model, one either needs to have a long standing friendly relationship with an AD and numerous purchases - or buy grey. Not a world scale problem I'd say.