It's happening....

[fsprow]

I only note that watch prices (hard to quantify) have gone down less than equity markets. Perhaps they will follow as markets recover and consumer attitudes improve, as they always do. I’m always put off on this forum when folks demean other members opinions or people in the watch business (eg resellers, who in my experience are often very good folks).

[Sandpit]

How is the secondary car market holding up? I know certain things like GT3 911s we’re going for insane premiums but are they still as stupid or have they also dropped?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by TomCarter

Even in 08 09 I don’t remember Steele Daytonas selling aftermarket for less than
retail at the time. Maybe the occasional one off from someone who had fallen on hard times but not in general.

You could buy a mint pre-owned one just under retail, I know because I did at the time.

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by Ensign

And why can’t Daytonas go even lower? It wasn’t that long ago that they were in the teens.

It wouldn’t be outlandish to have Daytonas to “over correct.” Greys are going to be out of business before too long. Remember when ADs would shift stock to greys to pay for new stock? That’s years down the road, if ever. Until then ADs will just handle the market which will just be end users, not flippers.

They can and will. Things will return to the way they were before 2016...a confluence of events occurred to create this bubble. There was a lot of (nonsensical) sentiment, mainly fueled by grey sellers on social media, that Rolexes are a rare item and that this gives them some intrinsic value much above retail price...a lot of fools bought into this and piled into the watch markets. This situation is now rapidly unwinding, and as it does, the demand from those who don't really care about watches will rapidly fall and availability at retail will improve. Grey market sellers are largely not buying so the small time flippers will disappear.

The Greys who have been around for a while will be fine because they made a ton on the way up to offset losses on the way down, the ones who jumped in recently will be gone. The Grey market game might be permanently altered moving forward as there are some suggestions that Rolex is largely moving to branded boutiques and they are watching the allocation of inventory to end customers much more closely.

Daytonas probably will never fall below retail because of all the hype around the watch...they will probably come down to 20% or so above retail which was the historical norm.

[MiloDiThernan]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

I have not spent much time looking at data points, but I’m definitely aware that we are headed towards rough waters. We’ll see what happens in the next year or so, and I was only speaking about the Daytona in particular.

If things totally go upside down and we have high unemployment rates along with massive inflation, no it is not outlandish for a luxury wrist watch to devalue 200% from its peak.

I’m just saying, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

If it does, I hope everyone fares OK. As far as the Daytona goes, I think it will definitely be worth 40,000 again… But that could be 10 to 20 years from now, or could be two years from now.

Let’s paraphrase this, by paragraph.

I haven’t bothered with facts, but there’s trouble ahead….for everything, sorry, only for Daytonas.

If demand for labour collapses and demand for everything else surges, Daytona watch prices will fall a lot.

But I don’t think that will happen.

But it might, in which case, I hope you’re all OK.

If the Daytona price falls a lot, it will recover those losses.

Within 20 years or, perhaps, 2.

I mean, really….shouldn’t we at least try and stick to facts, even if flimsy or anecdotal.

[G23Guy]

Originally Posted by TomCarter

Even in 08 09 I don’t remember Steele Daytonas selling aftermarket for less than
retail at the time. Maybe the occasional one off from someone who had fallen on hard times but not in general.

Too bad that what is starting to happen now is going to be infinitely worse than anything that happened after 08/09. I think by this time next year nobody will be thinking about a Daytona at any price.

[red1108nyc]

Originally Posted by G23Guy

Too bad that what is starting to happen now is going to be infinitely worse than anything that happened after 08/09. I think by this time next year nobody will be thinking about a Daytona at any price.

My personal opinion. 5 year Treasury yield is currently at the highest level since (yes you guessed it..) 2008. This time around, we don’t have a housing bomb crisis but something different in broad based and sustained inflation and potential for stagflation (higher prices and lower growth). Different ball of wax this time around for the global developed economy. Worrisome indeed for non-savers and asset speculators.

[Bmats]

Originally Posted by red1108nyc

My personal opinion. 5 year Treasury yield is currently at the highest level since (yes you guessed it..) 2008. This time around, we don’t have a housing bomb crisis but something different in broad based and sustained inflation and potential for stagflation (higher prices and lower growth). Different ball of wax this time around for the global developed economy. Worrisome indeed for non-savers and asset speculators.

Not to be a buzzkill but we may still have a housing bomb that just hasn’t gone off yet. The market has stalled. Yeah the practices are not the same but a sudden rise in inventory and drop in prices, in top of everything else, could be another big shock.

[PA Zu]

Could be of interest to those interested in pricing, but there is an article in todays WSJ headlined “Luxury brands are making watches even fewer people can afford.” Behind paywall or I would post link but summary is, in an Apple Watch world, Swiss watchmakers are looking to sell fewer watches at higher prices

[X E L O R]

Originally Posted by -Ally-

I doubt any business would take the risk of carrying that many so I have to ask, how do you know?

Because I messaged them asking on a PX with mine… I have it in writing… I’ll dig out the email!


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[X E L O R]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Did they actually tell you they had 80 in stock?

Yes…


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[X E L O R]

Watchfinder… IMG_6548.jpg


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[wjv4200]

Damn, you all sound scared enough to make me want to start buying already.

[Loevhagen]

On Iceland in 2008 the inflation peaked at 12,7%. The ISK was almost worthless after Icelandic banks fell over. What did some smart people do on Iceland during these times? They moved cash into Rolex watches and bought Rolex sport watches. After 2008, they had assets they could sell to regain wealth. Wouldn't surprise if this method is still a valid way to regain personal economy in 2024 after the current inflation hike we see these days world wide. Everything in life is cyclical.

It seems that USA is gaining on Iceland from this point forward when it comes to inflation looking forward.

Have a look: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...-US&start=1997

And: https://voxeu.org/article/houston-we...pital-controls

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by X E L O R

Watchfinder… Attachment 1298071


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No hoarding at all, right folks? Disgusting!

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by MiloDiThernan

Let’s paraphrase this, by paragraph.

I haven’t bothered with facts, but there’s trouble ahead….for everything, sorry, only for Daytonas.

If demand for labour collapses and demand for everything else surges, Daytona watch prices will fall a lot.

But I don’t think that will happen.

But it might, in which case, I hope you’re all OK.

If the Daytona price falls a lot, it will recover those losses.

Within 20 years or, perhaps, 2.

I mean, really….shouldn’t we at least try and stick to facts, even if flimsy or anecdotal.

You literally just repeated what I wrote and added really nothing of substance, so thanks I guess?

“Haven’t bothered with the facts” is wrong, I do keep up with what is happening but don’t care to spend time citing specific percentages. Will nearly everything be affected if there is a significant downturn? Yes, duhhhh.

Again, I’m not quite sure what you were trying to get across by paraphrasing what I wrote. And aren’t facts just that? Not flimsy or anecdotal? Just facts?

I didn’t state anything as fact, just opinion. “Let’s try to stick to facts” is an interesting comment.

Fact: White dial Daytonas were selling in the mid 40k range two months ago.

Fact: They we’re selling in the teens in 2017.

Not a fact: Daytonas will drop to 20k.

Not a fact: Daytonas will surge to 75k.


No one knows what will happen, so place your bets.

My bet is that the one I own will be worth a-plenty one day, regardless of what happens over the next 3-5 years. Until we see, I’ll just wear it and go about my day.

K, toodles.

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by X E L O R

Watchfinder… Attachment 1298071


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They’re part of Richemont conglomerate, so are well capitalized and can afford to hold a lot of inventory. But if they’re sitting on so many and effectively refusing to buy, it probably means the watches are not moving.

[Innocenti]

Originally Posted by X E L O R

Watchfinder… Attachment 1298071


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It’s almost as if the grey dealers have bought up the vast majority of dealer stock , fancy that

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by jarecki

They’re part of Richemont conglomerate, so are well capitalized and can afford to hold a lot of inventory. But if they’re sitting on so many and effectively refusing to buy, it probably means the watches are not moving.

Cash is king though and they will need to turn over a certain number of watches.

To be sat on 90 BLNRs tells me this market was way way over pumped with false scarcity. I wonder how many other types they have (Subs etc).

When the greys stop buying from flippers this market is going to grind to a screeching halt.

I think it will be worsened when the average Joe gets wind that the market is in trouble (the media will jump all over it) and then suddenly being able to justify buying a £10k sports watch because it’s worth more than retail will be harder to justify.

Interesting times ahead.

[Meltingicecube]

Just had an in person chat with my London AD. They seem to be delusional!

The store was basically empty with only one other client being served and two walk in enquiries for an entire hour I was there (I remember, 3 months ago, they had like 20 walk in enquiries in an hour while I was there). He said, for now they are keeping their £175k spending requirement for SS Daytona and £100k for LV, but it could change if grey prices remain "depressed"!

[Innocenti]

Only way I might buy another Rolex is if it was from an Authorised dealer offering me discount on list price.
There would need to be a lot of ducks lined up in a row for it to happen.

[Innocenti]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

Just had an in person chat with my London AD. They seem to be delusional!

The store was basically empty with only one other client being served and two walk in enquiries for an entire hour I was there (I remember, 3 months ago, they had like 20 walk in enquiries in an hour while I was there). He said, for now they are keeping their £175k spending requirement for SS Daytona and £100k for LV, but it could change if grey prices remain "depressed"!

I for one will probably always remember this attitude from dealers.

[telesquire]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

Just had an in person chat with my London AD. They seem to be delusional!

The store was basically empty with only one other client being served and two walk in enquiries for an entire hour I was there (I remember, 3 months ago, they had like 20 walk in enquiries in an hour while I was there). He said, for now they are keeping their £175k spending requirement for SS Daytona and £100k for LV, but it could change if grey prices remain "depressed"!

As my father would say 'Well I hope it stays fine for you' Yes, delusional. We have such short memories. Party over for now.

[Litflynt912]

Originally Posted by TomCarter

Even in 08 09 I don’t remember Steele Daytonas selling aftermarket for less than
retail at the time. Maybe the occasional one off from someone who had fallen on hard times but not in general.

Late 2011 I was offered a Daytona SS (zenith) at 8,900 and thought it was too high at the time. 2008-2013 was a different time. Some of my memorable purchases during that time. People forget how bad things were and the market wasn’t inflated with IG “influencers”

14060M - $3600
17000 - $1,590
16570 polar - $4500
3510 Speedy - $500

I don’t regret watches but wished I snagged a 5066 Aqua during those times

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

Just had an in person chat with my London AD. They seem to be delusional!

The store was basically empty with only one other client being served and two walk in enquiries for an entire hour I was there (I remember, 3 months ago, they had like 20 walk in enquiries in an hour while I was there). He said, for now they are keeping their £175k spending requirement for SS Daytona and £100k for LV, but it could change if grey prices remain "depressed"!

£100k for the privilege of being able to buy an LV. Tell me this isn't a crazy bubble! If the present situation was permanent Rolex coild not possibly be happy only getting a thin sliver of the pie when they are driving the gravy train producing these profits. Not to mention their regular Rolex customers being treated like crap by the same ADs who are making record profits. Surely, Rolex would go own boutiques only if this was forever, - so they get the £100k spend and all the profit from the LV? That they are not doing anything suggests they do not think this craziness is permanent.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

On Iceland in 2008 the inflation peaked at 12,7%. The ISK was almost worthless after Icelandic banks fell over. What did some smart people do on Iceland during these times? They moved cash into Rolex watches and bought Rolex sport watches. After 2008, they had assets they could sell to regain wealth. Wouldn't surprise if this method is still a valid way to regain personal economy in 2024 after the current inflation hike we see these days world wide. Everything in life is cyclical.

It seems that USA is gaining on Iceland from this point forward when it comes to inflation looking forward.

Have a look: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...-US&start=1997

And: https://voxeu.org/article/houston-we...pital-controls

Turkey has around 70% inflation. No Rolex hoarding.

To hedge against that, traditionally people buy more liquid assets like gold or refuge currencies like Swiss Franc (CHF).

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

On Iceland in 2008 the inflation peaked at 12,7%. The ISK was almost worthless after Icelandic banks fell over. What did some smart people do on Iceland during these times? They moved cash into Rolex watches and bought Rolex sport watches. After 2008, they had assets they could sell to regain wealth. Wouldn't surprise if this method is still a valid way to regain personal economy in 2024 after the current inflation hike we see these days world wide. Everything in life is cyclical.

It seems that USA is gaining on Iceland from this point forward when it comes to inflation looking forward.

Have a look: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...-US&start=1997

And: https://voxeu.org/article/houston-we...pital-controls

Inflation here is bad but that will not happen here. USD is too big to fail. The notion of putting money into watches in the USA market would only lose money. In order for this scenario to work out, there would have to be another currency in the world to sell these watches that has any value. Which one would that be?

If usd collapses, so does china and all of Europe. We would have financial Armageddon.

Also, there was another post earlier stating that another round of lockdowns will fix this. First, I don’t think the USA will tolerate that. Second, you will kill the supply side of things even further (which is where most of the stresses are coming from), and third, the government can’t print any more money eg COVID relief funds because that will accelerate inflation.

[Turbo Racer]

From an active seller on MODA this morning lol


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[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Turkey has around 70% inflation. No Rolex hoarding.

To hedge against that, traditionally people buy more liquid assets like gold or refuge currencies like Swiss Franc (CHF).

Yes. I think gold may get a comeback soon.

[Xhulio]

I for one am glad the tide is turning and eager to see where the market will be in come end of year…
, due to the uncertain times ahead with the cost of living and the pending recession around the corner Im not sure if I want to entertain the AD call when they call to sell me the models I’m on the list for. Which I have a feeling it won’t be long the way things are headed.

Now soon these ad will need us the genuine buyers that actually wanted the watch and not to make a quick profit. I’m not sure I want to give them +£20k of my money anymore.

Do we Think we can now ask for a discount on retail price 😅