25% reduction and counting

[huncho]

Originally Posted by GW44

Who edited your requote here please?

Was it the O/P (as is his right) or was it you to make another dreary, tiresomely negative post?

it's funny how the same few people on here only come on to post doomer negative shit

[GW44]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's funny how the same few people on here only come on to post doomer negative shit

Indeed.

There seems to be a cabal of about half a dozen TRF posters that seem to be luxuriating in a market movement that was a) clearly inevitable at some point and b) not proven to be the death spiral they seem to be salivating for.

[joa]

here is what's gonna happen:

1. market will keep going down.
2. market will hit rock bottom.
3. market will climb again.

during phase 1 and 2, the self proclaimed watch purists and aficionados cheering about crash will not use the opportunity to buy. And when we are in phase 3 they will again be left out in the rain and complain how the market wronged them... seeing the same with crypto and stocks all the time as well..

[jsobral]

I'm not a watch market expert, but I did study economics. Grey market value is nonsense, should go down eventually. Rolex.com MSRP will not go down though. Maybe stay the same for a good amount of time before going up again.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by joa

here is what's gonna happen:

1. market will keep going down.
2. market will hit rock bottom.
3. market will climb again.

during phase 1 and 2, the self proclaimed watch purists and aficionados cheering about crash will not use the opportunity to buy. And when we are in phase 3 they will again be left out in the rain and complain how the market wronged them... seeing the same with crypto and stocks all the time as well..

yeah the classic "please just let btc go back below 30k one more time and i'll buy" lol. then they're nowhere to be found when it happens

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by jsobral

I'm not a watch market expert, but I did study economics. Grey market value is nonsense, should go down eventually. Rolex.com MSRP will not go down though. Maybe stay the same for a good amount of time before going up again.

You studied economics, yet, you created a thread a couple days ago asking if you should buy a DD40 and that you would “have to literally rob the bank to afford it”. I don’t know what university you took your econ class at.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...1&postcount=19

[Jaypremium]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

You studied economics, yet, you created a thread a couple days ago asking if you should buy a DD40 and that you would “have to literally rob the bank to afford it”. I don’t know what university you took your econ class at.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...1&postcount=19

Lmfao nah when u pull receipts my laughter reaches to the sky lolllllllll.


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[alonsowwss]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

You studied economics, yet, you created a thread a couple days ago asking if you should buy a DD40 and that you would “have to literally rob the bank to afford it”. I don’t know what university you took your econ class at.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...1&postcount=19

The internet is ruthless

[-Ally-]

Originally Posted by jsobral

I'm not a watch market expert, but I did study economics. Grey market value is nonsense, should go down eventually. Rolex.com MSRP will not go down though. Maybe stay the same for a good amount of time before going up again.

Do they offer refunds?

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...1&postcount=19

[jsobral]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

You studied economics, yet, you created a thread a couple days ago asking if you should buy a DD40 and that you would “have to literally rob the bank to afford it”. I don’t know what university you took your econ class at.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...1&postcount=19

It was just a metaphor alluding the high value of the item. The fact that you comment on that instead of my point of view makes me think you are really, really dumb.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

So, you don’t see it happening. Right.

But you claim “they can force dealers to buy whatever they produce” is nonsense I’m afraid. Do you actually know how the Rolex AD ordering portal works and the direct monthly supply/invoicing to their AD’s as well?

As for prices (trade/retail) Rolex will simply do whatever they want there and it won’t change a thing in terms of the wider market. That’s been proven over the years for their brands and others in the premium watch market.

You're telling me Rolex can't and doesn't pretty much dictate terms to ADs? Come on!

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's funny how the same few people on here only come on to post doomer negative shit

Same can be said the other way. Same few folks lauding the greys and saying there is no change happening, citing one source only, how they know it all and have seen it all, etc.

Some of the people posting this "negative shit" have more than 30 years of Rolex experience too, and not all those people have been forum members the entire time. They just don't go around posting their resume/CV in every response like it somehow qualifies their "advice" and "predictions" as gospel.

[GusFring]

Originally Posted by joa

here is what's gonna happen:

1. market will keep going down.
2. market will hit rock bottom.
3. market will climb again.

during phase 1 and 2, the self proclaimed watch purists and aficionados cheering about crash will not use the opportunity to buy. And when we are in phase 3 they will again be left out in the rain and complain how the market wronged them... seeing the same with crypto and stocks all the time as well..

This sir is bang on the money and along the lines of what I said earlier, they wait for it like some kind of bitter I told you moment, but then when pieces are available suddenly there’s nothing to moan about and having an actual watch on their wrist is no longer of interest.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by jsobral

It was just a metaphor alluding the high value of the item. The fact that you comment on that instead of my point of view makes me think you are really, really dumb.

It seems the point of my post was lost on you. The fact you majored in econ and still created that thread speaks.

Let’s hope you’re not a CPA in your country.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by gusfring

this sir is bang on the money and along the lines of what i said earlier, they wait for it like some kind of bitter i told you moment, but then when pieces are available suddenly there’s nothing to moan about and having an actual watch on their wrist is no longer of interest.

msrp

[GusFring]

Originally Posted by rolex16

msrp

In what context do you mean Nick?

[Madman37]

When DavidSW starts driving a Nissan then you all will knows it’s a crash.

[jsobral]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

It seems the point of my post was lost on you. The fact you majored in econ and still created that thread speaks.

Let’s hope you’re not a CPA in your country.

So you though I was literally going to rob a bank?

No way your intuition tells you I'm joking?

Jesus, what a retard.

[Beo3]

Originally Posted by Madman37

When DavidSW starts driving a Nissan then you all will knows it’s a crash.

Never gonna happen.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GusFring

In what context do you mean Nick?

The only target that matters is MSRP, anything above that is not worth buying at. These folks you guys were talking about include people like me who refuse to feed the hype at any scale. If I can get it at the AD great, otherwise, oh well. The only reason I and many others even care about the prices going down is as a proxy for when we might see availability at the AD at MSRP.

[Dannyv]

Originally Posted by rolex16

The only target that matters is MSRP, anything above that is not worth buying at. These folks you guys were talking about include people like me who refuse to feed the hype at any scale. If I can get it at the AD great, otherwise, oh well. The only reason I and many others even care about the prices going down is as a proxy for when we might see availability at the AD at MSRP.

Yep - I am in the same boat. Many many others are as well. It’s why I don’t think we will see ADs filled any time soon. Go back 2ish years before the boom/pandemic and they were still empty for the most part. Wait times were quite short on “less desirable” models but it wasn’t a walk in walk out service.

The lists are long and filled with people chomping at the bit to buy MSRP or even slightly above (5-10%).

Some things will die in the ass like I said earlier, but for the most part I think things will still be “hard” to get.

[jrh282]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah the classic "please just let btc go back below 30k one more time and i'll buy" lol. then they're nowhere to be found when it happens

BTC around $27K. I'd personally wait for it to go down further. I believe it dipped down to $3K ish at the beginning of COVID. I also think grey prices are heavily inflated and will come down further given the end of 'easy money'.

Just my two cents.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You're telling me Rolex can't and doesn't pretty much dictate terms to ADs? Come on!

Thanks for confirming your complete knowledge gap.

[Jimbo]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Spot on. Rolex will absolutely protect their brand and place in the market above all regardless what the economy is doing.
To look at it from another view point: Rolex isn’t that expensive of a purchase for those even with moderate money and no amount of inflation is gonna make anyone with some money blink for a $30k watch purchase. Rolex will ensure they are always highly demanded within their buying demographic. Watch Rolex discontinue a hot model and see money flow like water to get it.

I don't think Rolexes going for 2 to 3 times MSRP is where Rolex wants to be. Remember, they don't sell directly to consumers. They sell to ADs who then sell to consumers. ADs cannot sell for more than MSRP. They know pretty much exactly what they will be making for each watch they sell to an AD.

Also, as a "charitible" organization that has no shareholders, they do not have to own up to anybody. They can do what they want.

So cutting production has nothing to do with "defending" their brand. Defending is up to their marketing department and lawyers.

Rolex was doing fine in the era when Daytona's were their worst selling watch, and discounts at ADs were common. They will still thrive and do well if those times come back (which I don't think will, but I clearly do not think 3x retail in the greys is normal or anything Rolex or its ADs actually desire).

There's nothing here to defend if you are talking about prices.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

Thanks for confirming your complete knowledge gap.

Please educate me, I’d love to know what I’m missing.


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[GW44]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You're telling me Rolex can't and doesn't pretty much dictate terms to ADs? Come on!

Yes, it’s completely correct but you carry on with your entertainment agenda

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

Yes, it’s completely correct but you carry on with your entertainment agenda

Nice attitude. I asked for you to fill in the gaps, not give me a BS response.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Please educate me, I’d love to know what I’m missing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, again.

Do you know how the Rolex portal actually works?

Do you understand/know how the the non contractual supply chain really works?

[GW44]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Nice attitude. I asked for you to fill in the gaps, not give me a BS response.

Thank you

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

So, again.

Do you know how the Rolex portal actually works?

Do you understand/know how the the non contractual supply chain really works?

I do not have firsthand knowledge of what you asked. What I have heard is that Rolex requires ADs to purchase certain amounts of certain watches, etc. That’s where greys helped in the past, because the ADs could offload slow movers to them to keep the new inventory coming in. I also have heard ADs can’t order what they want, and am told they have no idea what they will receive or when.

What am I missing?