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21 February 2017, 05:37 PM | #91 | |
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PP 5205G-013/ PP 5212A / AP 15416CE /26574 st QP/ AP 50th 16202st /AP 15500st Black / AP 26405CE / AP 77350CE / AP 15551st / AP 67540sk /Daytona C White/Rolex SS BLRO / Rolex Sub Green / Rolex Explorer II/ Rolex DJ Blue |
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22 February 2017, 12:28 AM | #92 |
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I only focus on realized losses, and since I don't sell, I am up on all of mine! But (only) slightly more seriously, for me its fun money. If I lost my entire watch collection tomorrow the impact would be immaterial so best not to focus on the ups and downs and instead on whether I still enjoy the watch. If so it stays. Simple.
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22 February 2017, 12:45 AM | #93 |
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My point was not to have a Bloomberg-like discussion due to my being motivated by some deep-seated fear of losing a few thousand dollars (thought I was clear about this), but rather to illustrate that the belief that the PM Rolexes are keeping valuation while AP is losing it hand over fist was, shall we say, more than a bit over pessimistic.
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116520 white; 16613 black; 116710; 16570 polar; 16600. AP 15400; 15703. Blancpain Fifty Fathoms. Glashutte Sport Evo GMT. Omega Planet Ocean 2907.50.91; Planet Ocean Liquidmetal LE 222.30.42.20.01.001; Seamaster 2255.80.00. Breitling Crosswind, white. Panerai PAM 005. VC Overseas Chrono, black. |
22 February 2017, 01:02 AM | #94 | |
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22 February 2017, 01:28 AM | #95 |
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I buy my watches with anticipation of losing 10-20% just like buying new cars. It doesn't bother me if I lose few thousand on a watch when I resell. the only thing that bothers me is that AP discounts are all over the place from 10-15% to 30+%.
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22 February 2017, 06:38 AM | #96 |
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Anyone saying they got over 30% off brand new is full of sh** unless it was an undesirable watch sitting for like a year or 2. Even then I don't think it would happen. As far as me though, I buy my watches trying to keep my max loss to no more than 2k. I switch in and out of watches so buying right is very important for me. Never know when I'll get bored and want something else. Unfortunately I don't have the money to just go out and buy 5 of them and keep them lol.
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22 February 2017, 07:46 AM | #97 | |
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If you wind it, they will run. 25 or 6 to 4. |
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22 February 2017, 10:35 AM | #98 |
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22 February 2017, 11:55 AM | #99 |
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White 15400s can be had for 27 percent off msrp.....sorry 3 percent miss
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If you wind it, they will run. 25 or 6 to 4. |
22 February 2017, 12:58 PM | #100 | ||
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I would like to hear more on these points. I was under the impression that AP had fairly limited production.
Does AP have poor after service relative to Rolex that may hurt its value? After the horror stories I've heard of IWC, I'm not sure I would ever buy one regardless of how affordable a lot of their watches are pre-owned. It seems the market is slow for new watches but my worries are fuelled by how different older Rolexes have suddenly become cool and shot up and price. As example the Fat Lady GMT and the 16520 Daytona. Most BNIB prices are too expensive for me anyway so thats why I am so focused on the pre-owned price, anything that rises in price beyond its new price is probably never going to be affordable for me. I feel like I have a bit of an understanding of the Rolex pre-owned vintage market (not that I can make predictions but that I can make sense of things looking retrospectively) but really lack a feel for the AP pre-owned and vintage market. Quote:
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22 February 2017, 03:03 PM | #101 |
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I don't know about you but it looks like 15300 has been increasing in price on the used market. Very steadily too. Just grabbed one recently but sure wish I could have gotten one back when it was in production.
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22 February 2017, 10:47 PM | #102 |
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22 February 2017, 10:48 PM | #103 | |
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Go buy either of the openworked models of the royal oak. They will appreciate eventually. |
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22 February 2017, 11:30 PM | #104 |
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23 February 2017, 01:05 AM | #105 |
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Amen to that.
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116520 white; 16613 black; 116710; 16570 polar; 16600. AP 15400; 15703. Blancpain Fifty Fathoms. Glashutte Sport Evo GMT. Omega Planet Ocean 2907.50.91; Planet Ocean Liquidmetal LE 222.30.42.20.01.001; Seamaster 2255.80.00. Breitling Crosswind, white. Panerai PAM 005. VC Overseas Chrono, black. |
23 February 2017, 06:34 AM | #106 |
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I'm surprised that there is no mention of the 15202st in this thread.
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23 February 2017, 06:58 AM | #107 |
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This has been an interesting read, as it hits at the heart of the purchasing experience for some: justification of a purchase based on retained value. We aren't all watch flippers, here.
I, for one, have taken ROI into consideration with some purchases. Usually, it's for the watches that are most expensive, for me... "I know this costs a lot of dough, but it will hold its value..." I would be less likely to buy the #speedytuesday if I thought the value would sink. It also feels foolish to me to buy a watch at what you thought was a great price and only see its value plummet (e.g., PP 5227G), even if you love the watch. And speaking of the 15202ST, it's on my wishlist... |
23 February 2017, 08:53 AM | #108 | |
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There is way too much analytics there my friend. Just buy what you like, negotiate the best deal you can, and call it a day. Don't need the stress of trying to speculate future watch prices. Good luck!
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23 February 2017, 10:31 AM | #109 |
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23 February 2017, 11:15 AM | #110 |
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Depends on the model, there are unloved references across all brands - even PP and Rolex. It's not rare for Rolex to also discount 30% on certain PMs - again it depends, can't really generalize.
AP produces some solid pieces and if you're worried about the brand becoming non-existent, it wont. Now if you're spending that much on a Bell&Ross or Graham, then you should be worried. Buy whatever AP you like and enjoy it. |
23 February 2017, 11:51 AM | #111 |
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They spend too much money on celebs to wear their watches.
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23 February 2017, 02:09 PM | #112 | |
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That's for sure!
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Vintage Rolex is such a rabbit hole that I'm surprised a collector stumbled into the AP forum |
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23 February 2017, 04:22 PM | #113 |
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23 February 2017, 05:33 PM | #114 |
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To answer OPs question about AP watches (or Rolex or Patek) holding value, it is simple economics - supply vs demand. If the supply exceeds demand, price goes down. If demand exceeds supply, then price goes up. Of course this is overly simplified.
However as many people already mentioned, AP overproduced many of their watches. Even the popular 15400ST can be found everywhere - at AD's and pre-owned stores. That is why people are getting 25%+ discount at ADs. On the other hand, the 15202ST does not have a huge supply and demand is still strong, so new watch prices will be very close to suggested retail and re-sale pricing will be fairly robust (at least for now). Someone mentioned the 15300ST. If you bought this watch new 10+ years ago and are selling it now, you will have made a decent profit. As they say in investing, past performance is not indicative of future returns. However we learn from the past so as to not make the same mistake in the future. |
24 February 2017, 03:15 AM | #115 |
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I think the huge servicing cost is a major turn off. Some shared as much as 20% of the cost of the new watch. So if you get a pre-owned that needs to be serviced, pls factor the cost of it.
And then. Is it worth paying so much to service a non-inhouse chrono module? |
24 February 2017, 03:34 AM | #116 |
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This thread gives me a headache.
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24 February 2017, 04:18 AM | #117 | |
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24 February 2017, 04:25 AM | #118 | |
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Unfortunately, the AP sub forum has lately become infested with people who readily offer their opinion irrespective of whether said opinion bears any relationship to reality. |
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24 February 2017, 04:29 AM | #119 |
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24 February 2017, 04:50 AM | #120 |
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15300 is definitely going for a bit more than 10k at the moment. DavidSW has a white dial listed at 14k. Isn't the standard service for 3120 movement around 1k? Which is less than 10% of MSRP.
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