Is anyone actually still paying over MSRP for watches from Greys right now?

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by mjr24

People are still buying. As a result, you aren't going to see prices dip much lower.

Again, prices have gone down.....but grays don't have 40 of these sitting around. All they need is ONE sale at a price and when they know they will be able to get that (based off a sale).....they won't lower the price any more than that. I've seen plenty of grays in the last 2-3 weeks on Ebay sell one at a lower price...and then relist a subsequent one $500 higher. They know what they are doing.

Are you high when you wrote this?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Are you high when you wrote this?

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Huh? Three have sold since April 2.

This whole COVID shelter in place has been going on for 3 weeks minimum now.....

People are still buying. As a result, you aren't going to see prices dip much lower.

Again, prices have gone down.....but grays don't have 40 of these sitting around. All they need is ONE sale at a price and when they know they will be able to get that (based off a sale).....they won't lower the price any more than that. I've seen plenty of grays in the last 2-3 weeks on Ebay sell one at a lower price...and then relist a subsequent one $500 higher. They know what they are doing.

One fairly notorious grey recently posted a picture of 50+ hulks lined up ready for sale. When rent cheques and staff salaries are due, these guys which are highly leveraged are either going to have to liquidate or fold.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Are you high when you wrote this?

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[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Are you high when you wrote this?

Sigh

Why can’t people just be respectful to each other anymore

[jagwap]

I saw 116520 in the display case after the banking collapse. Before there was 6-9 year waiting lists. This is possibly of a similar scale or bigger, as it is global, not just the stupid countries that deregulated the banking system.

It is entirely possible this bubble is burst, for a while. However we know Rolex is good at blowing bubbles, so it will be back.

[1William]

To answer the original question I am still buying/trading. In the last month or two I have purchased a SS Pepsi, Rolex DJ II, Omega Planet Ocean and a few Seiko's. For the two Rolex watches I paid fair market price. For the Omega and Seiko's I received a good discount. Money is always a factor but it is not the largest one for me. I believe ownership is the goal and wearing the watches and enjoying them is the end. If I have paid a little more than where the market currently sits, Okay. My money, my watches. I have made and lost a lot of money over the years and this will all work out in the end. It is a hobby and there is an associated cost to our hobbies that I am will to pay for the ownership experience. I am less concerned about prices than I am about no new Rolex and Tudor models being released any time soon. Such is the hobby.

[VacherObsessive]

Some people are

Already over MSRP with an hr left to go

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/143573923063

[Hollie_Rollie]

It’d be silly to buy anything over msrp right now. It seems that the greys and particularly the private sellers are dropping their asking price with each ‘bump’

My game plan this year was to sit out 2020 because things were noticeably getting better towards the end of 2019. Current economic circumstances have really expedited the inevitable

[daveswordfish]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Huh? Three have sold since April 2.

This whole COVID shelter in place has been going on for 3 weeks minimum now.....

People are still buying. As a result, you aren't going to see prices dip much lower.

Again, prices have gone down.....but grays don't have 40 of these sitting around. All they need is ONE sale at a price and when they know they will be able to get that (based off a sale).....they won't lower the price any more than that. I've seen plenty of grays in the last 2-3 weeks on Ebay sell one at a lower price...and then relist a subsequent one $500 higher. They know what they are doing.

We know what happens in times like these. Buyers conserve cash and reassess priorities. Sellers with idle stock still have expenses and will drop prices to raise cash, all the way down to below cost if they have to.

To think that prices aren’t going to drop much lower is pure folly. This virus is just getting started. The world will not return to normal until there is a vaccine... still 10-18 months out. Global deaths will be in the millions. There will be a long term global recession. Prices are going to drop more...much more. How on earth do you think that ridiculously overinflated prices aren’t going to go much lower?


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[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Huh? Three have sold since April 2.

This whole COVID shelter in place has been going on for 3 weeks minimum now.....

People are still buying. As a result, you aren't going to see prices dip much lower.

Again, prices have gone down.....but grays don't have 40 of these sitting around. All they need is ONE sale at a price and when they know they will be able to get that (based off a sale).....they won't lower the price any more than that. I've seen plenty of grays in the last 2-3 weeks on Ebay sell one at a lower price...and then relist a subsequent one $500 higher. They know what they are doing.

Just wait. It will not be instantaneous as you’ve pointed out.

There is no escaping the hit the economy, jobs, and lives are taking right now. We will have high unemployment even next year.

[Calatrava r]

Buy used, if your comfortable with the price, and you cannot obtain the watch directly from an AD. When watches become generally available at ADs the secondary mark up, not the used dealers. will evaporate over night and used watch dealers will be competing in the marketplace by buying watches from owners at steep discounts and then selling them at or below MSRP. Creating an immediate inventory for sale always has a value.

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Sigh

Why can’t people just be respectful to each other anymore

It was a serious question, so sorry for coming across disrespectful. None of what he said really made sense if you actually read it.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

Some people are

Already over MSRP with an hr left to go

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/143573923063

How much did the seller get left with after Ebay fees etc?

[VacherObsessive]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

How much did the seller get left with after Ebay fees etc?

About $13,300 left

[aw9nineteen]

I didn’t want to start a new thread so I’ll drop it in here. Is there a conspiracy going on with Greys? I don’t mean to insult anyone in any way, but I’ve seen listings go up that legitimately confuse me. I’ve seen fresh postings of watches for sale that are not BNIB that are still listed heavily over MSRP. By heavily I mean the prices from three months ago, and one of them had light blemishes.

I kid with conspiracy, but I am genuinely intrigued by the logic of listing a Daytona SS in the mid 20s today with light scratches, or an AP RO Chrono above MSRP. Is the expectation that it will sell? Or start high to offer more of a “discount”.


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[Greg 59]

Well don't forget Rolex has closed its factories so the supply chain is reduced. AD's have reported smaller consignments last month. So I guess if demand is still high why wouldn't they. Most of their sales were carried out on line so they've not been affected in the same way by the temporary closure of businesses and buyers not browsing their windows.

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[aw9nineteen]

Originally Posted by Greg 59

Well don't forget Rolex has closed its factories so the supply chain is reduced. AD's have reported smaller consignments last month. So I guess if demand is still high why wouldn't they. Most of their sales were carried out on line so they've not been affected in the same way by the temporary closure of businesses and buyers not browsing their windows.

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Solid logic I suppose. I wonder if there’s some type of carrying cost or cost for sitting on the shelf.


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[Greg 59]

I'm sure there is but don't forget this isn't a poor man's hobby. Most of these dealers have been operating for years. They've built up a financial buffer. They're not spending like they were, in fact non of us are. Meals out and general socialising has stopped dead in its tracks. They are astute business people. They know if they reduce their prices before they have to then it will take a long time to recover. With over 7 billion people out there, there are still a lot of potential buyers with the financial means to buy "grey". Not everyone who has been laid off was a watch collector. Not every watch collector has been laid off. Most of us are probably still getting an income but our expenditure may have fallen as a result of this temporary isolation. I know for a fact I'm not spending anything like I was. If I wanted to cheer myself up in these dismal times I might feel inclined to treat myself to another watch

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[arika]

Originally Posted by Greg 59

I'm sure there is but don't forget this isn't a poor man's hobby. Most of these dealers have been operating for years. They've built up a financial buffer. They're not spending like they were, in fact non of us are. Meals out and general socialising has stopped dead in its tracks. They are astute business people. They know if they reduce their prices before they have to then it will take a long time to recover. With over 7 billion people out there, there are still a lot of potential buyers with the financial means to buy "grey". Not everyone who has been laid off was a watch collector. Not every watch collector has been laid off. Most of us are probably still getting an income but our expenditure may have fallen as a result of this temporary isolation. I know for a fact I'm not spending anything like I was. If I wanted to cheer myself up in these dismal times I might feel inclined to treat myself to another watch

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Sure; there is 7 billion people out there, but that number by itself is useless. Maybe 1% of that 7 billion will be rolex's target audience. Though the point is, going forward there will likely be less potential buyers than more. While one can argue that supply of rolex is lower due to factory shut down. True, but did one consider that once shut down ends will rolex resume production at previous level or downside to reduce supply to keep in line with the reduced demand (unless of course you'll be arguing that demand will instantly return to previous levels as soon as shut down ends). Maybe rolex will be going through some rounds of layoffs to prop up grays.

[cdubg21]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Are you high when you wrote this?

I’m high right now

[Greg 59]

Yep. I see your point of view.
One further thought crossed my mind. Didn't Rolex increase production a few months ago to try and alleviate the shortage and thereby slow down the increasing rise of prices of their popular models. That appeared to have little impact on prices as there are just so many people out there wanting one or more of their watches. My guess is they will always be oversubscribed. My point about mentioning 7 billion people was only to point out that the population is growing at an alarming rate and each of them is aspiring to become wealthier, not poorer.

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[myusernamez]

never have never will

[Schubeedoobee]

Nevern pay greys.... on new pierces. take your time, you're not children,

[Pim]

Yes, paid over MSRP and I will tell you why.

When ik was 18 years old I wanted to buy a SS Daytona (mind you, this was 1989). The Daytona was trading above retail and I found it ludicrous to pay over MSRP. I figured, the prices will come down or the AD will have one in time.

Well we all know how that went.....

So today I bought myself a SS blue dial Sky-Dweller (https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...4#post10520704) and I paid above retail.
Prices came down a bit due to corona and made a bit of profit on my trade-in so it didn't hurt to much.
I see the blue dial never really coming down so that is why

[aw9nineteen]

Originally Posted by Schubeedoobee

Nevern pay greys.... on new pierces. take your time, you're not children,

THIS. IS. AMAZING.


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[cdmorenot]

To me, a car is one of the most basic necessities of life.(My life)

A watch has never been and will never be even close to what a car is to me and I have never paid MSRP for ANY car. Always below invoice.

Why in the world would I do such thing for a watch?


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[rmlovett1]

I have recently, as a certain Patek model, for NIB, came down to my “I’ll buy it” threshold. My mentality on this piece (I’ve been watching it for a while) is the same now as it was before this current global mess, and...it’s a SS Patek, so fairly bullet proof, as far as bottom not dropping out, like some past smaller brands. I always approach such high end models as....if it drops a bit lower, I’m ok with it. Now, if it rises to previous levels...great! I never buy a watch for anything but enjoyment, so the resale is rarely a factor when I purchase EXCEPT....I like to be somewhat armed, educated, and prepared, for whatever happens on the higher end models, and I’ve never bought a watch for any potential gains.
I also wouldn’t buy certain high end models for astronomical prices either.

[Pam673]

A shop Front dealer has to pay rent, even though now most staffs would have been stood down or laid off but the owner still has to cover for insurances and other outgoings.

Watches not moving = no cash flow = no cash to pay expenses

Grey sitting on a pile of stock = dead weight = a losing business

Non shop front dealers (high volume flippers) can afford to sit out simply they don't have much high outgoings like rent unless they took out a loan...however they normally don't have much stock (they flip for quick profit in the shortest amount of time) because of a lack of capital so they will

1. Stop buying Rolex from other flippers to flip
2. Fire sale their limited stock

One can see a domino effect taking its course here...flippers had been turbo charging the demand for SS Rolex in the last so many years. When they stopped buying, the flow on effect gets shut down and you end up with a whole bunch of SS on the market that are above MSRP with few buyers. Then someone starts to drop their price, another follows and then another do a fire sale...

[JK911]

lol no judgement... that’s all I see on this forum.