It's happening....

[pursang_]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

That GMT RB went for 17k plus fees in the end, but let's not get too excited.

This is still 50 percent above RRP in the UK. Cooler than before maybe but that's still very hot.

It's not insignificant. It's enough to dampen enthusiasm for UK flippers.

Given the 20% VAT on top of RRP and that greys would offer less than that hammer price.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

That GMT RB went for 17k plus fees in the end, but let's not get too excited.

This is still 50 percent above RRP in the UK. Cooler than before maybe but that's still very hot.

I can see a Patek 5711 blue dial failed to reach min reserve, top bid £82k I think.

So the actual market price for a blue 5711 according to recent auctions;

Feb - £130k
March - £110k
April - £100k
May - £90k
June - £80k

Chrono 24 showing these peaked at £160k, I'd hate to have bought 20 of them for that thinking I could sell them for more

[rolex16]

NIB 2022 olive dial 228239 in FS for $55k. Almost $20k difference from some TS sites. Crazy differences in prices going on in the secondary world.

[gesus]

I will forever remember the ways AD's were treating clients the last few years, absolutely disgraceful. This whole thing is happening faster than anyone I think would of anticipated - will definitely be a crash landing.

For those who have cash and some patience, cheers to you. Will be fun walking into AD's 6-12 months from now.

[pursang_]

Originally Posted by smg8

I can see a Patek 5711 blue dial failed to reach min reserve, top bid £82k I think.

So the actual market price for a blue 5711 according to recent auctions;

Feb - £130k
March - £110k
April - £100k
May - £90k
June - £80k

Chrono 24 showing these peaked at £160k, I'd hate to have bought 20 of them for that thinking I could sell them for more

At this point it's guaranteed that several players are underwater on their inventory by a considerable amount.

Watchfinder has Richemont. They're fine. DSW is shrewd. They'll be fine.

But some Moda bros are getting zapped like flies.

[usctrojan99]

Originally Posted by Cogno

Covid created a general bubble, everything went up so quickly it was becoming unsustainable, now there are many problems in the world so everything is going down, fear kicked in and panic selling is making things worse which is expected in this times.
This affected the watch market too, but don’t tell me people don’t like watches and won’t buy them anymore cause I say that’s the fear kicking in.
If you have money and you buy to wear, there are lots of bargains already, it’s hard to time the market but who cares, the world doesn’t end tomorrow neither with a dip, nor a crash, nor a recession, it’s a circle and everything will repeat, probably on a larger scale.
I read many in these forums saying they will keep their watches forever, so where is the problem then?
Either you bought at msrp or at crazy premium, it doesn’t really matter what’s happening, it will be a bargain tomorrow, literally everything cost more over the years, especially during times when money is cheap, so stop whining please, you will be fine.

\\\
Bargains? lol. If your baseline is predatory pricing..yes. But, $10K Rolexes going for $25K in '21 and now selling for $16-17K is hardly a bargain IMO. It's still overpriced (in my eyes)...but that's the beauty of value -for some, perhaps, it could be a bargain.

[usctrojan99]

Originally Posted by pursang_

At this point it's guaranteed that several players are underwater on their inventory by a considerable amount.

Watchfinder has Richemont. They're fine. DSW is shrewd. They'll be fine.

But some Moda bros are getting zapped like flies.

You knew this was a bubble when 18 yr olds were posting YouTube videos on how easy is to flip Rolexes so they can drip themselves in overpriced Balenciaga and Givenchy crap.

[PO 2500D]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

OMG There was no "this user has bought with us" mark 30 minutes ago!!!

He must have bought the RB perhaps?

[flyingdoctor]

Originally Posted by usctrojan99

You knew this was a bubble when 18 yr olds were posting YouTube videos on how easy is to flip Rolexes so they can drip themselves in overpriced Balenciaga and Givenchy crap.

[PO 2500D]

Originally Posted by pursang_

It's not insignificant. It's enough to dampen enthusiasm for UK flippers.

Given the 20% VAT on top of RRP and that greys would offer less than that hammer price.

RRP in the UK includes VAT, the watch sold for 18k inc fees, not a bad price all things considered.

[PO 2500D]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

They indeed had an amazing covid ride: https://www.google.com/finance/quote...sa=X&window=5Y

Richemont in YTD is maybe better to provide a view on the future in this new World Order as it is more liquid (the fall continues): https://www.google.com/finance/quote...a=X&window=YTD

Swatch group: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UHR:SWX?window=YTD

The online distribution arm of Richemont (that's the division that holds Mr Porter and WF) made a loss last year and the year before so they clearly have some cash being spent there.

Looking at the latest figures on WF alone at the UK companies house they have only declared up to March 2021 and they had a 17% gross margin on sales of £100 million with a net profit of around £3 million, their figures to March 22 should be available soon but looking at those numbers they aren't stealing money and Richemont isn't making money out of online distribution yet.

[Epanerai12]

A new unworn Exp 1 36mm TT is up for sale for 11.5k, MSRP is 11.15k. It's being offered for less than MSRP plus taxes. HERE IS YOUR CHANCE! For all those who are wanting a new TT Exp 1 36mm, you can get it now for less than at the AD!

Crickets I see...oh wait no one wants the undesirable TT Exp 1 really if there isn't any money in it. Lol. But if your AD called and offered it....I GOT THE CALL I GOT THE CALL!


The bet many have made about the less desirable models that were used as carrots getting hit first are correct. HERE. IT. IS.

[buhdeh]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

A new unworn Exp 1 36mm TT is up for sale for 11.5k, MSRP is 11.15k. It's being offered for less than MSRP plus taxes. HERE IS YOUR CHANCE! For all those who are wanting a new TT Exp 1 36mm, you can get it now for less than at the AD!

Crickets I see...oh wait no one wants the undesirable TT Exp 1 really if there isn't any money in it. Lol. But if your AD called and offered it....I GOT THE CALL I GOT THE CALL!


The bet many have made about the less desirable models that were used as carrots getting hit first are correct. HERE. IT. IS.

Link to the Explorer?

[GoWarriors]

Watches are about as illiquid as it gets, which should make the bubbles more dramatic - both up and down.

[Goupax]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

A new unworn Exp 1 36mm TT is up for sale for 11.5k, MSRP is 11.15k. It's being offered for less than MSRP plus taxes. HERE IS YOUR CHANCE! For all those who are wanting a new TT Exp 1 36mm, you can get it now for less than at the AD!

Crickets I see...oh wait no one wants the undesirable TT Exp 1 really if there isn't any money in it. Lol. But if your AD called and offered it....I GOT THE CALL I GOT THE CALL!


The bet many have made about the less desirable models that were used as carrots getting hit first are correct. HERE. IT. IS.

You have to wonder how much customers value the 'relationship' cultivated by purchasing their watches from their AD instead of saving a couple of dollars on the grey market. Especially if it means that their chances at landing more difficult references in the future are improved, what is the gap, % wise, between MSRP and secondary that they are willing to accept until it does not make sense anymore? I know the answer for each individual is different but I would be interested to know where our community stands on this topic. Maybe a question like that deserve a thread of its own.

[Jimbo]

Originally Posted by multimedia

Exactly this. :)

As a side note; interesting stuff happening at the kindergarten today. This won't be pretty at the end of the tunnel. (why am I posting this, some might wonder? Clearly, there's a big connection with the ponzi scheme they call crypto, and the massive increase in (watch) prices we've seen the last 2 years or so)

Attachment 1298336

Fun fact;
There are 19,839 different crypto currencies out there.
Exchanges; 527
Market Cap; $981BN

It's like trading Pokeman cards for goodness sake

Cheers,
Joe

The problem with crypto is that there is, in actuality, no limit to supply. Yes, there are programs and algorithms that create and burn crypto currencies depending on the type, but anyone who has programming skills (apparently, not too much expertise is needed) can create a coin using an existing blockchain.

Or if you are a little ambitious, you can create your own blockchain crypto.

All I'm saying is that a commodity with really no barriers to entry has very very little in terms of stable price controls. If you don't like bitcoin, go to ethereum. If not that then you can create crabcoin if you want.

I'm not trashing crypto, but this is a serious problem in terms of asset value stability.

[Jimbo]

Originally Posted by PO 2500D

The online distribution arm of Richemont (that's the division that holds Mr Porter and WF) made a loss last year and the year before so they clearly have some cash being spent there.

Looking at the latest figures on WF alone at the UK companies house they have only declared up to March 2021 and they had a 17% gross margin on sales of £100 million with a net profit of around £3 million, their figures to March 22 should be available soon but looking at those numbers they aren't stealing money and Richemont isn't making money out of online distribution yet.

I've seen a lot of posts lately about watch company or watch dealer financials. Some support a market that does not look like it's falling, and others possibly do.

My word of caution is this. Financials are always lagging indicators. They show what has already happened in the past. Most companies release their financial quarterly if you are talking about public companies. So when they release, they are release data from as far back as 4 months ago (3 months plus the additional month it takes to audit all that information and vet it for release).

It doesn't show future performance. They even have to explicitly state that when they release such information. They even have to place a disclaimer that future statements cannot to be taken materially as things can change.

What does that mean? It means whenever a company says they had record earnings the past quarter, that is only 1/2 the story. The other story is their outlook. That is why a company can have a rosy quarterly release, and then their stock drops precipitously because they guide lower for the future.

As far as I can tell, the grip of inflation and the resulting asset deflation didn't really bite until sometime in Feb or March, and the proof really only came out in May and early June.

Any financial pain will not show up until 3rd calendar quarter of this year, to the 4th quarter. Christmas sales, or lack thereof, will really be an indication as to how bad asset deflation has hit regular consumers.

Again, as I have said, I am willing to wait. The thing about luxury goods is that it's really not a necessity. I don't have to buy anything NOW. If it doesn't work out, I bite the bullet....IF I want to pay 2x retail for a watch.

Those who say people who want a Rolex don't want anything else is really really being shortsighted. That is not the case for 99.99% of consumers or watch buyers for that matter. You are only talking about that .01% that are rabid Rolex fans....the ones who only collect Rolex and possibly have posters on their walls.

There are really not a lot of these people.

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

A new unworn Exp 1 36mm TT is up for sale for 11.5k, MSRP is 11.15k. It's being offered for less than MSRP plus taxes. HERE IS YOUR CHANCE! For all those who are wanting a new TT Exp 1 36mm, you can get it now for less than at the AD!

Crickets I see...oh wait no one wants the undesirable TT Exp 1 really if there isn't any money in it. Lol. But if your AD called and offered it....I GOT THE CALL I GOT THE CALL!


The bet many have made about the less desirable models that were used as carrots getting hit first are correct. HERE. IT. IS.

Hmmmmm. Are you saying that if a TT Rolex can’t be flipped for a quick profit than no one wants to buy it lol?

If so, not disagreeing as TT isn’t my bag and I think it makes a good point on current state of the market.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

A new unworn Exp 1 36mm TT is up for sale for 11.5k, MSRP is 11.15k. It's being offered for less than MSRP plus taxes. HERE IS YOUR CHANCE! For all those who are wanting a new TT Exp 1 36mm, you can get it now for less than at the AD!

Crickets I see...oh wait no one wants the undesirable TT Exp 1 really if there isn't any money in it. Lol. But if your AD called and offered it....I GOT THE CALL I GOT THE CALL!


The bet many have made about the less desirable models that were used as carrots getting hit first are correct. HERE. IT. IS.

Somebody has made a loss on that watch. I think I agree, this is it.

The moment the profile builders and flippers can’t start breaking even or turning a profit on two tone you’ll start to see more and more available.

Two tone will be back on display within the next few weeks I reckon. By that I mean DJs and Exp 1.

[Henrimontgomery]

Originally Posted by gesus

I will forever remember the ways AD's were treating clients the last few years, absolutely disgraceful. This whole thing is happening faster than anyone I think would of anticipated - will definitely be a crash landing.

For those who have cash and some patience, cheers to you. Will be fun walking into AD's 6-12 months from now.

I’m going to ask for discounts and for them to hold the watch for me until I decide if I buy a watch from them or something else. Oh how much are they gonna pay for their years of disdain.

[Jimbo]

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

On a serious note, I'm gonna take the opposite approach.

If you didn't like being mistreated during the good times, it's not a good idea to be equally as rude when the shoe is on the other foot.

If you played your hand well, and have the funds to purchase when things get back to normal, I'm gonna be really really nice and generous to the ADs that have product for me to sell.

This will hopefully build up good will so that when the tight supply happens again (which it will), that AD will be on my side.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by Jimbo

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

On a serious note, I'm gonna take the opposite approach.

Already making plans on how to behave with the AD when they'll beg for our business, aren't we? Well, wake me up when that happens (I sure hope my reply here will age badly but... unfortunately, I don't think it will).

Look, people tend to extrapolate because it's easy to do. Four months ago the watch Youtube world predicted the Panda to reach $100K by years' end. Now the predictions is that the Rolex market will crater so much we are discussing whether we should be gracious to our ADs.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. But right now, I still can't find Rolexes and Pateks for sale at the AD.

[Epanerai12]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Already making plans on how to behave with the AD when they'll beg for our business, aren't we? Well, wake me up when that happens (I sure hope my reply here will age badly but... unfortunately, I don't think it will).

Look, people tend to extrapolate because it's easy to do. Four months ago the watch Youtube world predicted the Panda to reach $100K by years' end. Now the predictions is that the Rolex market will crater so much we are discussing whether we should be gracious to our ADs.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. But right now, I still can't find Rolexes and Pateks for sale at the AD.

Key words "right now".....

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Already making plans on how to behave with the AD when they'll beg for our business, aren't we? Well, wake me up when that happens (I sure hope my reply here will age badly but... unfortunately, I don't think it will).

Look, people tend to extrapolate because it's easy to do. Four months ago the watch Youtube world predicted the Panda to reach $100K by years' end. Now the predictions is that the Rolex market will crater so much we are discussing whether we should be gracious to our ADs.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. But right now, I still can't find Rolexes and Pateks on display at the AD.

Pretty much. Rubbing a dealer’s face in a downturned market isn’t going to to feel as good as you may think. The guy in the Rolex boutique at the mall couldn’t give a sh*t about getting you a GMT over the last 5 years, and won’t give two sh*ts about getting you one over the next 5 either.

[MiloDiThernan]

Originally Posted by PO 2500D

The online distribution arm of Richemont (that's the division that holds Mr Porter and WF) made a loss last year and the year before so they clearly have some cash being spent there.

Looking at the latest figures on WF alone at the UK companies house they have only declared up to March 2021 and they had a 17% gross margin on sales of £100 million with a net profit of around £3 million, their figures to March 22 should be available soon but looking at those numbers they aren't stealing money and Richemont isn't making money out of online distribution yet.

Quality info. Thank you.

[rolexonlywatch]

Everything crashed: crypto, Wall Street, and housing soon. What make you think rolex will sustain?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PO 2500D]

Originally Posted by Jimbo

I've seen a lot of posts lately about watch company or watch dealer financials. Some support a market that does not look like it's falling, and others possibly do.

My word of caution is this. Financials are always lagging indicators. They show what has already happened in the past. Most companies release their financial quarterly if you are talking about public companies. So when they release, they are release data from as far back as 4 months ago (3 months plus the additional month it takes to audit all that information and vet it for release).

It doesn't show future performance. They even have to explicitly state that when they release such information. They even have to place a disclaimer that future statements cannot to be taken materially as things can change.

What does that mean? It means whenever a company says they had record earnings the past quarter, that is only 1/2 the story. The other story is their outlook. That is why a company can have a rosy quarterly release, and then their stock drops precipitously because they guide lower for the future.

As far as I can tell, the grip of inflation and the resulting asset deflation didn't really bite until sometime in Feb or March, and the proof really only came out in May and early June.

Any financial pain will not show up until 3rd calendar quarter of this year, to the 4th quarter. Christmas sales, or lack thereof, will really be an indication as to how bad asset deflation has hit regular consumers.

Again, as I have said, I am willing to wait. The thing about luxury goods is that it's really not a necessity. I don't have to buy anything NOW. If it doesn't work out, I bite the bullet....IF I want to pay 2x retail for a watch.

Those who say people who want a Rolex don't want anything else is really really being shortsighted. That is not the case for 99.99% of consumers or watch buyers for that matter. You are only talking about that .01% that are rabid Rolex fans....the ones who only collect Rolex and possibly have posters on their walls.

There are really not a lot of these people.

Not sure any of that has anything to do with the point I was making.

[amh]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

Pretty much. Rubbing a dealer’s face in a downturned market isn’t going to to feel as good as you may think. The guy in the Rolex boutique at the mall couldn’t give a sh*t about getting you a GMT over the last 5 years, and won’t give two sh*ts about getting you one over the next 5 either.

Ha, so true

Originally Posted by rolexonlywatch

Everything crashed: crypto, Wall Street, and housing soon. What make you think rolex will sustain?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rolex has a healthy profit even at MSRP. So many knobs for them to turn:
1) While watches still selling at MSRP, do nothing
2) Raise prices a little every once in a while
3) Reduce their marketing budget
4) Reduce their 'charity' budget
5) Cut some model lines

Rolex has been through two World Wars. No idea if they'll make it through the next one, but a mere 2008-style event would not be a big deal.

Crypto could completely disappear and no one would notice. Crypto is essentially worthless, it was always a merely speculative outlet (Blockchain itself is another matter, but it's technology rather than currency.) Housing may see a much needed dip but everyone needs a place to live and while populations increase we'll need more houses. Stocks have historically bounced back - also through past recessions, depressions and World Wars.

Maybe this time it will be different. We're overdue for a reset on many fronts, unfortunately. Buckle up.

[DBCooper07]

A fool and their money. I think it's all comical. This has been coming since 2008/9. The pandemic just delayed it a couple years. The fist thing to go when times get hard for 99% of the people is luxury goods. Soon you'll AD's with 1-2 employees selling most Rolex's at a 10% discount. You will still see Panda's going for $25K up till the aliens land.

[Bmats]

Originally Posted by DBCooper07

A fool and their money. I think it's all comical. This has been coming since 2008/9. The pandemic just delayed it a couple years. The fist thing to go when times get hard for 99% of the people is luxury goods. Soon you'll AD's with 1-2 employees selling most Rolex's at a 10% discount. You will still see Panda's going for $25K up till the aliens land.

The ADs do have a few things going for them, I think. Mainly that there are fewer of them and more global demand in the world. Whereas some cities had 3-4 ADs, now they might have 1-2. And even with worldwide demand down, other markets still will pick up more of the slack than say a dozen years ago.

None of that means I believe they can still play games, or the bad ones can still insist you buy three other brands before you get a two-toned sub. I for one think there will be far more pieces in the cases next year (but I’m now Warren Buffett, so it’s all just guesses for me). But even with fewer buyers they may face less competition than 2008.