ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
4 January 2019, 06:34 AM | #121 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,668
|
Quote:
PP already limit the supply of these watches, that's partly why they are expensive. |
|
4 January 2019, 06:46 AM | #122 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: VA
Watch: GMT Master 16750
Posts: 1,373
|
Really? Try WatchRecon. You'll see at least seven LVs between $10.5-12.8k range. Look at the last 31 days, and you'll also see one for a few dollars under $10k. The fact is, quite a few can be had for under $13k. Chrono has nine for under $13k, and the cheapest two are in the $10k range.
|
4 January 2019, 06:51 AM | #123 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,668
|
Quote:
|
|
4 January 2019, 07:04 AM | #124 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: VA
Watch: GMT Master 16750
Posts: 1,373
|
|
4 January 2019, 07:07 AM | #125 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 68
|
Flat fours are selling very regularly on Chrono; I am following them via „saved search“.
|
4 January 2019, 07:28 AM | #126 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
my 0.5 should have been a pretty blatant tip off that i was pulling your collective legs a bit, heh.
but overall, i stand by my %ages. time shall reveal more. the "markets" took a nice little crap off of crAAPL today. and we aren't even warmed up, yet. |
4 January 2019, 08:03 AM | #127 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Wherever I am
Watch: where your hand is
Posts: 236
|
|
4 January 2019, 08:28 AM | #128 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
Quote:
blow the bubble, crash it, buy it all back pennies on the dollar and render mom and pop bagholders. worked every single time. and this next crash will be worse than 2008 methinks. they are gearing up to restructure this untenable debt ponzi with something along the lines of the IMF's SDR, maybe even a crypo SDR which would force a cashless brave new world upon everyone; something they've been wanting and planning since the 70s. wealth inequality is now as bad or worse than it was in 1929. who knows what % of PP collectors are truly in the 1%, esp re the sports watch demographics. |
|
4 January 2019, 08:41 AM | #129 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Wherever I am
Watch: where your hand is
Posts: 236
|
Quote:
I agree things could get worse and definitely more prolonged than 2008, which was super quick, btw. |
|
4 January 2019, 09:34 AM | #130 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Europe
Posts: 3,262
|
Well... 2008 may have been superquick in the US... Not so much across Europe in general and not at all in countries like Italy and Spain.
Below a couple of data points at what price 5711s did or did not sell pre xmas: Meertz in Munich sold a new blue 5711 from 2018 pre xmas within days asking EUR 46.5k. Don't think he let it go for anything less than EUR 45k. At the same time new blue 5711s w asking prices closer to EUR 50k or beyond didn't seem to get moved at all pre xmas and Meertz has been unable to move both a like-new blue 5711 from 2014 asking EUR 44.9k and a new white 5711 from 2018 asking EUR 42.8k. |
4 January 2019, 10:49 AM | #131 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,694
|
Market on SS sports is probably declining from the peak mania. Its hard to spend crazy dollars on a SS watch when your portfolio is down 20 to 25 percent. Hopefully, the downturn is short lived and we can marvel at SS Nautilus at 100K and above.
|
4 January 2019, 10:56 AM | #132 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,694
|
Actually, that will be determined by PE ratios which by recent historical levels are approaching very healthy levels. The current situation has nothing to do with 2000 where the PE of GE was 60 for a 10 percent annualized growth company or 2008 where investment banks were selling worthless mortgage security bundles. We are experiencing an inverse relationship between corporate and economic health and stock prices.
|
4 January 2019, 02:21 PM | #133 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Wherever I am
Watch: where your hand is
Posts: 236
|
Quote:
And as for the economy, if you follow the right indicators, it ain't so rosy. The economy will follow the market down and then the market will decline further and it will become a bit of a vicious cycle until it ends. And I would argue that the problems beneath the surface are far worse than 2000 and potentially even worse than 2008. I tried warning about it here back in May but this is a watch forum where everyone is excited about watches so these things generally fall on deaf ears. Let's let things play out instead. I can assure you it will be one hell of a ride, and we ain't seen nothin' yet. |
|
4 January 2019, 03:23 PM | #134 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 36,927
|
If I’m sure of anything it’s that nobody knows jack squat regarding the direction the market is headed in 24 hours let alone a year. Some will make the right bets and some won’t.
__________________
|
4 January 2019, 09:54 PM | #135 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: London
Watch: 116500 LN
Posts: 361
|
Quote:
I don't know whats going on with their silly offers recently. They offered me £8000 for my 116520 recently, yet advertise similar models for £16k.
__________________
Instagram - SDH1980 |
|
4 January 2019, 10:15 PM | #136 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: N/A
Watch: Royal Oak
Posts: 345
|
Quote:
I think the 5711 will come down but still be above retail prices. If you look at similar 3800s they are less looked at by speculators but have a strong real demand by collectors and wearers. I think the 3800 reflects more the real demand behind nautiluses which should be priced on the 2nd hand market around the lower 30k USD slightly above retail but less than current levels. Don't think people who bought at 5711 retail have to worry but if those who spent 50k-60k are in for a blood bath. |
|
5 January 2019, 01:50 AM | #137 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
Quote:
and if you think FAANG is ludicrous, which it is and then some, check out r2k (russell 2,000) which had at times shown a PE of infinity (ie incalculable)! you can thank experimental and insane monetary policy for these kinds of distortions in price discovery (a term that is a great big lol today). what's coming down the pike is going to be a spectacular reset, all planned many decades ago. |
|
5 January 2019, 03:27 AM | #138 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ohio
Watch: Rolex, Patek, AP,
Posts: 522
|
The federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell at an event today. Just said the fed is going to be more accommodative aka dovish with interest rates and realizes the market turbulence they have caused recently. They see the 10 year treasury yields dropping like a rock and ism report slowing first time in 2 years. They just set a bottom in or close to a bottom for the financial markets whether right or wrong can be argued. Every financial investor knows you never fight the fed with your investing strategies ever.
|
5 January 2019, 03:29 AM | #139 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,668
|
I'm active on a couple of other online forums, and people have been gleefully predicting a stock market meltdown/crash for at least the last five years. Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the Telegraph has been predicting imminent doom for the same period of time, all with enormous certainty, and I have to say more than a little glee.
Even a stopped clock... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbGWQlEnNcQ The truth remains - no-one knows what will happen to the stock market in the next two hours. It's all speculation. Same goes for Nautilus prices. |
5 January 2019, 03:58 AM | #140 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
Quote:
|
|
5 January 2019, 04:01 AM | #141 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
Quote:
|
|
5 January 2019, 04:06 AM | #142 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Houston
Posts: 17,622
|
Quote:
Nothing like whats going on now has happened with the other rate hikes, its the other stuff that is causing the market problems The tax cuts last year probably masked some of the issues. Companies got a windfall which should have juiced stocks but they went sideways most of the year because the uncertainty regarding things like trade.
__________________
Instagram: tyler.watches current collection: Patek 5164A, Patek 5524G, Rolex Platinum Daytona 116506, Rolex Sea Dweller 43 126600, Rolex GMT II 116710LN, AP 15400ST (silver), Panerai 913, Omega Speedmaster moonwatch, Tudor Black Bay (Harrods Edition) |
|
5 January 2019, 04:07 AM | #143 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: N/A
Posts: 3,629
|
Man, whatever happened to just buying and enjoying?
I personally don't care where the value of my 5712 is going. Even if there is a surefire crash, I'm not selling as I'm enjoying the watch a ton. If heaven forbid, the day comes where I have to sell, the market price then is what it is. I get it if you're looking to buy that you might not want to overpay. I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not you're comfortable with spending extra money weighed against how long/if you are on the list at an AD. But if you're thinking of spending the money, but couldn't take a drop in value, then maybe it really isn't affordable to you. Just sharing my thoughts. And I will freely admit last year I might have gone out of control in the craze of everything and overspent. I reshuffled my collection to a level that I'm far more comfortable with, and where I don't have to speculate or worry about where the market's heading. |
5 January 2019, 04:40 AM | #144 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Wherever I am
Watch: where your hand is
Posts: 236
|
Quote:
|
|
5 January 2019, 04:56 AM | #145 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
Quote:
long and deep. (deeper than 2008 when next trough is reached.) we need to rename this the Patek Ponzi thread soon. |
|
5 January 2019, 05:30 AM | #146 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Singapore
Posts: 1,824
|
|
5 January 2019, 05:55 AM | #147 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2010
Real Name: Neil
Location: UK
Watch: ing ships roll in
Posts: 59,278
|
Fed have to be careful they don't cave and are seen to be independent and not being railroaded like many others are being.
|
5 January 2019, 05:59 AM | #148 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2010
Real Name: Neil
Location: UK
Watch: ing ships roll in
Posts: 59,278
|
Quote:
|
|
5 January 2019, 06:16 AM | #149 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,406
|
Quote:
__________________
5230G / 5146G / 124060 / BB58 / '59 Constellation |
|
7 January 2019, 02:36 AM | #150 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
|
from a successful trader & analyst -- the charts are something to ponder:
https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/04/the-ugly-truth/ |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.