Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[ts3]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

5905-1A steel with the green dial just sold for CHF50k hammer price at Philips auction (where prices are generally inflated). Thats below retail by at least 10k. Brutal.


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Brutal for the seller as they will likely get sth like CHF 40-45k depending on the consignment fee they negotiated.

No less brutal from a EU buyer's perspective as the CHF 50k hammer price would translate into nearly EUR 80k including buyer's premium and tax.

As always, the auction house and the tax man winneth...

[sski]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Now some Antiquorum results. Things got so bad here, i had to recheck like 3 times just in case im not looking at a 2017 auction.


5712 hammered at 60k


Discontinued 5960 steel absolutely decimated. Could not even meet starting bid


50% off retail


Just no words. These were pushing 80k earlier

Very few lots have sold. Most have not met the reserve. Things are bad folks.


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5712 @ 60K?

YIKES.......now im convinced. its much tougher out there than i thought. wow.

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by sski

5712 @ 60K?

YIKES.......now im convinced. its much tougher out there than i thought. wow.

Just for completeness, as a rule of thumb, you need to add 30-40% on top of the hammer prices to take into account the various fees. But yes, prices definitely much lower.


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[messikens]

Whoa Bruno great feedback - some crazy postings / prices!

I wonder how much this pushes other prices down... I.e. If I am (as some people know) after an AP 26420 but now there is literally steel / PM sports watches with complications including annual calendar / perpetual calendar going for retail or already under (esp from PP etc)... What is the knock-on effect here... Especially for a rubber bracelet Chrono without more complications

[honuswagner13]

There’s a brand new 26240 steel green AP chrono complete set for $85K, and is still sitting.

[Vince_76]

Thanks Bruno for the insight. It’s also important to note what has been stated ad nauseam here - public auctions like Phillip’s and Christie’s are heavily inflated and are not reflective of the market price, other than directionality. So that said, this bodes very well for buyers on the grey market.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

I expected most Rolex steel models to be available to purchase immediately within 8-12 months from an AD (perhaps not Daytona and Pepsi), but everything else

Why not the BLRO? It's become increasingly obvious how many of these have been hoarded away as 'investment' pieces. It's now quite clear they're about as common as any other GMT. Have a look how many have been thrown into the market over the last 2-3 weeks. These are still in production standard series watches, being pumped out in what I would guess to be 10s of thousands a year. They are not rare.

[*M5]

Just an observation that this thread was started on July 6th and there's not a lot of reflection of MODA or auction prices on Chrono24, main grey US grey dealers etc.


Prices seem to be holding there, very little adjustment.


When they went up, they went by thousands or tens of thousands of dollars and fast, going down seems to be taking a long time.

I guess everyone in the business is still very confortable with previous years gains.


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[messikens]

Originally Posted by *M5

Just an observation that this thread was started on July 6th and there's not a lot of reflection of MODA or auction prices on Chrono24, main grey US grey dealers etc.


Prices seem to be holding there, very little adjustment.


When they went up, they went by thousands or tens of thousands of dollars and fast, going down seems to be taking a long time.

I guess everyone in the business is still very confortable with previous years gains.


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Not sure what you are smoking but Vince and Dmash have quoted Moda extensively to illustrate the precipitous drop-off.

Of 50% off the previous Grey consensus doesn't do it for you then what will???

[*M5]

Originally Posted by messikens

Not sure what you are smoking but Vince and Dmash have quoted Moda extensively to illustrate the precipitous drop-off.

Of 50% off the previous Grey consensus doesn't do it for you then what will???

Again.......... If you read what I actually wrote, my observation was that the REST of the market does not quite reflect MODA and auctions.


No need for snarky remarks.

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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by *M5

Again.......... If you read what I actually wrote, my observation was that the REST of the market does not quite reflect MODA and auctions.


No need for snarky remarks.

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Yep, the 2% of watch buyers who buy (at some risk) on Moda don't make up the watch market... the other 98% who buy from the big dealers and the AD do.. I don't pay attention to what some shifty fly by night watch flipper sitting on a bunch of inventory is doing... I pay attention to what Watchbox, Chrono24, eBay and other places where most people go to buy are doing.

The fact that the listings on those sites aren't flying off the shelf is just the reality that there are not many buyers in this uncertain economy... even if prices drop by 50% off what's on there.. people aren't flush with money right now.

[norcalgt3]

how long until patek prices come down to earth more however from chrono24 and general sites?

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

how long until patek prices come down to earth more however from chrono24 and general sites?

7 months, 5 days and 6 hours.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by HAL330

7 months, 5 days and 6 hours.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by HAL330

Yep, the 2% of watch buyers who buy (at some risk) on Moda don't make up the watch market... the other 98% who buy from the big dealers and the AD do.. I don't pay attention to what some shifty fly by night watch flipper sitting on a bunch of inventory is doing... I pay attention to what Watchbox, Chrono24, eBay and other places where most people go to buy are doing.

The fact that the listings on those sites aren't flying off the shelf is just the reality that there are not many buyers in this uncertain economy... even if prices drop by 50% off what's on there.. people aren't flush with money right now.

lol most of the Chrono24 and ebay dealers are on Moda. You’re right though that stuff isnt selling and that chrono24 prices are lower if you reach out to the dealer directly since there’s a platform fee to sell on ebay and chrono

[BrunoMalik]

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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

lol most of the Chrono24 and ebay dealers are on Moda. You’re right though that stuff isnt selling and that chrono24 prices are lower if you reach out to the dealer directly since there’s a platform fee to sell on ebay and chrono

yes, many dealers are on chat groups, with WhatsApp and such... that's the whole sale end... I have a direct dealer contact I work with... but like I said, 98% of watch buyers aren't as savvy or informed as I am about the watch market... they thing the prices on Chrono24 ARE the market...

[messikens]

Originally Posted by *M5

Again.......... If you read what I actually wrote, my observation was that the REST of the market does not quite reflect MODA and auctions.


No need for snarky remarks.

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Actually my apologies.
Combo of a late night, too many beers, general frustration and seems like I am becoming a keyboard warrior...

[mwc5k]

Originally Posted by messikens

Actually my apologies.
Combo of a late night, too many beers, general frustration and seems like I am becoming a keyboard warrior...

I misread it too at first hehe.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by messikens

Actually my apologies.
Combo of a late night, too many beers, general frustration and seems like I am becoming a keyboard warrior...

much respect for anyone who can publicly apologize ..

[*M5]

Originally Posted by messikens

Actually my apologies.

Combo of a late night, too many beers, general frustration and seems like I am becoming a keyboard warrior...

Much respect here too.


Let's shake hands :)

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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

lol most of the Chrono24 and ebay dealers are on Moda. You’re right though that stuff isnt selling and that chrono24 prices are lower if you reach out to the dealer directly since there’s a platform fee to sell on ebay and chrono

keep in mind, if they're into those watches for more than the current wholesale price .. they'll just hold on to them until the economy turns (as it always does)... assuming they can afford to... some smaller dealers can't do that, thus the plunge in some prices.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

116508 Daytona mint full set for 67k and sitting. Crazy how much these have dropped, and no bottoming yet.

Still sitting for anyone interested. There is no bottom to this market yet

[dmash]

I find it amusing (not talking about you Hal) how some guys on TRF say MODA isn’t credible and shady, yet the VERY GREYS WHO ARE TOUTED AS TRUSTED buy and sell on there. Haha

Re: Hal (talking to you this time ) and inventory, the issue though with identifying true market price is all the places you listed are only asks and nobody is buying. MODA is 100% the best/most transparent identifier of actual market value at the moment. An eBay listing with a $75k OBO listing which eventually sells could very well have sold for $40k. You just don’t know.

[dmash]

Follow up, haven’t posted as much as prices just continue falling thousands every week. And still sitting. Market is dead right now, period. Nobody is making sales.

I firmly believe they are holding out for some Christmas miracle which will never come. 2023 will be the reckoning for some guys who are holding stock (watches, luxury bags, etc etc) and are going to really start to hurt.

[messikens]

You called it Dmash!

On a side note amazed at the sheer number of BLNR and BLROs hitting the market.

Like new BLNRs now under 15k on this site means the actual selling price must be closer to 13.5k nowadays

Times for hoarding are apparently over

[dmash]

Originally Posted by messikens

You called it Dmash!

On a side note amazed at the sheer number of BLNR and BLROs hitting the market.

Like new BLNRs now under 15k on this site means the actual selling price must be closer to 13.5k nowadays

Times for hoarding are apparently over

These are from all the guys who promised their SA it was ‘a forever purchase which would be passed down to my grandchildren’ who really just bought into the hype And they’re getting out while they can still make a G.

GMT is put out by the boatload across the world, it’s crazy that watch ever even fetched a premium. Not to say it’s an ugly time piece, just that there is zero rarity or limited production to it. Just like a submariner.

[*M5]

Sub 500 in US for the new model GMT, is that a lot or not? Screenshot_20221106-114826~2.jpg

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[dmash]

You think 500 of the same model watch (and 1800+ world wide) isn’t a lot?


Additionally, that watch was getting asks of 27-30 on c24 a few months back, not sure what you’re talking about that it hasn’t really dropped since then.

[Mifune]

Originally Posted by HAL330

much respect for anyone who can publicly apologize ..

I am sorry also...
:p