Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[*M5]

Originally Posted by dmash

You think 500 of the same model watch (and 1800+ world wide) isn’t a lot?


Additionally, that watch was getting asks of 27-30 on c24 a few months back, not sure what you’re talking about that it hasn’t really dropped since then.

I don't really know, hence the question. I wasn't really following the numbers before. I was just putting it out there.

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[*M5]

And please don't shoot!

I also would like to see the prices calm down a bit, as I am actively looking to buy some pieces but I am not on MODA or Grey dealer chats etc and I was just giving my opinion as a buyer looking from the outside in.


Considering the vendor sources that I have access to as a regular buyer, I still wouldn't buy grey, it is still very expensive compared to MSRP. For the pieces I'm looking for anyways.


And the AD route seems very much unchanged to me. Any dealers I have contacted are mentioning yeaaaars long waitlists, no chance etc.

I personally haven't heard the 'we have to go further down the line to sell our inventory' speach, and I have contacted a lot about 10 ADs since September.

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[dmash]

Originally Posted by *M5

And please don't shoot!

I also would like to see the prices calm down a bit, as I am actively looking to buy some pieces but I am not on MODA or Grey dealer chats etc and I was just giving my opinion as a buyer looking from the outside in.


Considering the vendor sources that I have access to as a regular buyer, I still wouldn't buy grey, it is still very expensive compared to MSRP. For the pieces I'm looking for anyways.


And the AD route seems very much unchanged to me. Any dealers I have contacted are mentioning yeaaaars long waitlists, no chance etc.

I personally haven't heard the 'we have to go further down the line to sell our inventory' speach, and I have contacted a lot about 10 ADs since September.

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you want to see where grey market really is? ask one of the greys how much they'll pay YOU for that 126710 lol.


also, AD is just maintaining image, they will milk this to the very last drop, and keep stuff out of cases as long as they possibly can. This was the best 3 years of business they've EVER had, period. because they had clients to buy undesirable models and jewelry in an attempt to get other hotter watches. they will clown around and say years long list, even when grey first hits MSRP again, as their business will fall off a cliff when they can't bundle stuff anymore.

Sit tight and re-visit ADs in January. Patience will reward you here in my opinion.

[*M5]

Originally Posted by dmash

you want to see where grey market really is? ask one of the greys how much they'll pay YOU for that 126710 lol.


also, AD is just maintaining image, they will milk this to the very last drop, and keep stuff out of cases as long as they possibly can. This was the best 3 years of business they've EVER had, period. because they had clients to buy undesirable models and jewelry in an attempt to get other hotter watches. they will clown around and say years long list even the grey first hits MSRP again, as their business will drop exponentially when they can't bundle stuff anymore.

TRUE

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[*M5]

Mind you, seems like grey market dealers are discounting pieces but asking for 500$ in shipping + taxes now...... Screenshot_20221106-130246.jpg

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[Incroyable12]

I noticed many Royal Oaks passed at the Antiquorum sale.

What did well were unique vintage pieces including several pocket watches which was sort of surprising.

[Incroyable12]

The Phillips Auction seems to have done pretty well:

https://www.phillips.com/auctions/auction/CH080322

[hello93]

Anyone elses patience running out after holding out for so long on the model you want.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by hello93

Anyone elses patience running out after holding out for so long on the model you want.

Yes, but feel like I am doing my part to responsibly sit out and help end the madness for actual enthusiasts.


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[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by dmash

you want to see where grey market really is? ask one of the greys how much they'll pay YOU for that 126710 lol.


also, AD is just maintaining image, they will milk this to the very last drop, and keep stuff out of cases as long as they possibly can. This was the best 3 years of business they've EVER had, period. because they had clients to buy undesirable models and jewelry in an attempt to get other hotter watches. they will clown around and say years long list, even when grey first hits MSRP again, as their business will fall off a cliff when they can't bundle stuff anymore.

Sit tight and re-visit ADs in January. Patience will reward you here in my opinion.

Well said and exact sentiments. Definitely waiting out before buying anymore pieces.

[train-time]

Originally Posted by hello93

Anyone elses patience running out after holding out for so long on the model you want.

Waiting for something you really want can be difficult, but it's going to pay off. Wait until after the Holidays or longer. I was at my AD a few weeks ago and they had their August numbers in, and the manager said that this past August was the softest in years.

That doesn't mean that they are not selling every Rolex they get for now, but other brands and jewelry were down. They are also big in pre-owned and while they are still buying, they are paying considerably less than before so I suspect their pre-owned sales are way down also.

[dmash]

Full set mint condition 2020 YG DD40 silver dial with asking price of $34.5k now. Still dropping

[hello93]

Originally Posted by train-time

Waiting for something you really want can be difficult, but it's going to pay off. Wait until after the Holidays or longer. I was at my AD a few weeks ago and they had their August numbers in, and the manager said that this past August was the softest in years.

That doesn't mean that they are not selling every Rolex they get for now, but other brands and jewelry were down. They are also big in pre-owned and while they are still buying, they are paying considerably less than before so I suspect their pre-owned sales are way down also.

Thanks. Watching the prices decline is equivalent to watching paint dry. Do these listings priced in the middle to high realistically even want to sell the watch?

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by dmash

I find it amusing (not talking about you Hal) how some guys on TRF say MODA isn’t credible and shady, yet the VERY GREYS WHO ARE TOUTED AS TRUSTED buy and sell on there. Haha

Re: Hal (talking to you this time ) and inventory, the issue though with identifying true market price is all the places you listed are only asks and nobody is buying. MODA is 100% the best/most transparent identifier of actual market value at the moment. An eBay listing with a $75k OBO listing which eventually sells could very well have sold for $40k. You just don’t know.

Spot on my friend

And to people who are saying Moda isnt the market or at least one you can go by I just dont understand. Moda started out as a site for dealers and you had to be accepted. Accepted so random people couldnt see what the hell is really going on with prices. Plus as you mentioned some of our biggest sellers here on Trf are on there as well. Chrono, Ebay, Watchbox, etc are not the market. They are not realistic and are just hoping to catch some of those "98% customers"



Conversation over

Originally Posted by dmash

you want to see where grey market really is? ask one of the greys how much they'll pay YOU for that 126710 lol.


also, AD is just maintaining image, they will milk this to the very last drop, and keep stuff out of cases as long as they possibly can. This was the best 3 years of business they've EVER had, period. because they had clients to buy undesirable models and jewelry in an attempt to get other hotter watches. they will clown around and say years long list, even when grey first hits MSRP again, as their business will fall off a cliff when they can't bundle stuff anymore.

Sit tight and re-visit ADs in January. Patience will reward you here in my opinion.

Also spot on. A D's having been rolling in it the last 3 or so years having ALL the control so its gonna take a minute for them to stop drinking the Kool Aid but hopefully there time is coming to

I got into Rolex well over a decade ago when buying at your local A D was the "worst" price you could pay and trade values/collection values reflected as much. I dont know if we will ever see those days ever again but all I want is for the people that got into watches for money and ONLY money to move on. Give the hobby back to the people who kept it afloat prior to 2018-2019.

And Gmts? Some people say Daytona's are the most hyped watch. Its actually Gmt's of late. Daytona's have always been hoarded while Gmt's were actually slow movers/made in bunches. At least in my A D experience prior to the madness

[dmash]

Speaking of GMT

Pepsi GMT on jubilee with card (scratched crystal), just sold for 15.5k. That’s a $210 fix AT Rolex, so effectively $15.71. Unreal these were bringing $25k earlier this year.

[Pablito]

What do you guys think about last Christie's auctions? Lots of folks on other forums claiming a speculative rebound and congratulations about this? Green, yellow and red 124300 went over 20k CHF and turquoise over 50K. Still, they're much cheaper on C24 :D.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Pablito

What do you guys think about last Christie's auctions? Lots of folks on other forums claiming a speculative rebound and congratulations about this? Green, yellow and red 124300 went over 20k CHF and turquoise over 50K. Still, they're much cheaper on C24 :D.

Read your statement and see exactly why auctions should never be taken as a real gauge of value lol. Half the time it’s two dudes just in a bidding war or intentionally running up for charitable causes. Why else would anybody logically overpay like that

Also whatever board you’re part of where they’re saying that’s cause for a ‘rebound’……I’d suggest to put them on your block list before your IQ starts dropping points, due to the surrounding of yourself with meatballs

[Pablito]

Originally Posted by dmash

Read your statement and see exactly why auctions should never be taken as a real gauge of value lol. Half the time it’s two dudes just in a bidding war or intentionally running up for charitable causes. Why else would anybody logically overpay like that

Also whatever board you’re part of where they’re saying that’s cause for a ‘rebound’……I’d suggest to put them on your block list before your IQ starts dropping points, due to the surrounding of yourself with meatballs

I'm with you

They seem to get a lot of satisfactions from this, as if auctions were the only engine of markets values.

[messikens]

As Dmash said before, the most realistic price / estimation of the market is "go to your Grey and ask to sell a new watch to them and see their offer price". They have tk go super low since 1) market is falling and 2) they anticipate this to continue so you need the buffer between current offer and expected sale to be large enough to offset another potential drop... If they are even buying and not consigning.

If you know it's now all risk avoidance and no risk taking from the greys, then you know what the real market is like.

Moda and Vince/dmashs updates are a great proxy for that

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by dmash

Read your statement and see exactly why auctions should never be taken as a real gauge of value lol. Half the time it’s two dudes just in a bidding war or intentionally running up for charitable causes. Why else would anybody logically overpay like that

Also whatever board you’re part of where they’re saying that’s cause for a ‘rebound’……I’d suggest to put them on your block list before your IQ starts dropping points, due to the surrounding of yourself with meatballs

Some of the Auctions have weird dynamics and pricing anomalies. Like you said not really a reliable indicator for a commodity/common piece.

I think a 41MM OP red went for around 14-15K recently and I saw an unsold Tiffany 41MM OP asking 23K with a 20K offer on it.

Red, Yellow, Tif Blue OP36s on are on my wishlist and I've watched the price steadily drop.

[dmash]

BNIB black Daytona just sold for $24

[JRedford]

Originally Posted by dmash

BNIB black Daytona just sold for $24

A “mint” (10/21) full set panda is currently up for auction.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by dmash

Read your statement and see exactly why auctions should never be taken as a real gauge of value lol. Half the time it’s two dudes just in a bidding war or intentionally running up for charitable causes. Why else would anybody logically overpay like that

Also whatever board you’re part of where they’re saying that’s cause for a ‘rebound’……I’d suggest to put them on your block list before your IQ starts dropping points, due to the surrounding of yourself with meatballs

A good portion of the other half is often money laundering, where the 'market value' of the item for auction has no correlation to the price paid.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by hello93

Anyone elses patience running out after holding out for so long on the model you want.

Not really. I like watches but not enough to bend over for recent pricing. My wait time is so far measured in a number of months you can count on one hand. My perspective might change when that reaches double digits, for example.

In the mean time I keep putting aside money for the watch fund...and hey after a while I might decide to upgrade!

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by dmash

Speaking of GMT

Pepsi GMT on jubilee with card (scratched crystal), just sold for 15.5k. That’s a $210 fix AT Rolex, so effectively $15.71. Unreal these were bringing $25k earlier this year.

Here’s one on the forum dropping quickly. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=857853

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by Al1969

Here’s one on the forum dropping quickly. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=857853

Dang. And still not sold. Might sell at $15-16K?

[Mathematoxic]

Yeah I am seeing a massive slow down in sales within my country. Some dealers even resort to posting 2 similar watches on 2 different account names. 1 with a higher pricing to make the other look cheaper. Also seen fake sales where watch is sold but later on being listed by a different dealer at a same or similar price point.

[mquarter]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Yeah I am seeing a massive slow down in sales within my country. Some dealers even resort to posting 2 similar watches on 2 different account names. 1 with a higher pricing to make the other look cheaper. Also seen fake sales where watch is sold but later on being listed by a different dealer at a same or similar price point.

Good sign. So cringe.

[chris242]

Originally Posted by Al1969

Here’s one on the forum dropping quickly. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=857853

Lots of “final” prices in that listing!


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by chris242

Lots of “final” prices in that listing!


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Even his original 22.5 was *final*