5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[David001]

My view is that the Nautilus style of watch is popular because it's uncluttered and just has nice clean classic looks.

The complicated pieces from Patak, FPJ, Greubel Forsey, Mille, etc, will only appeal to a limited number of pretty serious watch enthusiasts. I've been collecting watches for 30+ years and I think the engineering is fascinating, but visually many of them are pretty horrible.

Swizz watch pieces have become fashionable again and most who haven't spent years being a horology nut but now want to buy into it want something that looks classically nice - hence the RO's, GMT Rolex, Nautilus, etc.

[italiafan]

Ferrari does the same thing; reward Top customers with otherwise out of reach icona and version speciale cars.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Just one question to your point...

1. If the demand for 5711 was higher in the US, then why do the highest prices for the watch exist outside the US? There are a total of of around 100 of these watches for sale, The oldest ones being 2010 and selling for around 100k

In stark contrast there are 4,355 Daytonas for sale. There are 40x more daytonas for sale than 5711's and the funny thing is even those are all selling 2-3x above list for the past 2 decades. (two tone Daytonas excluded LOL)

1. Local sales taxes are far higher than the USA. In some countries, when these are added to duties you get a very expensive watch in dollar denominated terms.

2. Although demand is lower, Supply is lower still. On a proportional basis there’s even less of these things floating around..

3. Your Rolex example illustrates the point in reverse. Many thousands of these Daytona’s around. But demand is even higher than the models plentiful supply.


I’d urge caution when thinking that Chrono24 listing numbers and asking prices represent the underlying market. Many listings are spurious and transaction prices are somewhat lower than the fantasy land asking prices.

On a related note, the most I’ve ever heard someone verifiably pay for a 5711 is £42,000 GBP.

[Keldw]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

On a related note, the most I’ve ever heard someone verifiably pay for a 5711 is £42,000 GBP.

I know of one who purchased a 2010 5711 in okay condition, for 51.800GBP in January, just a week before it was discontinued. In February a friend of mine paid 65.000GBP for a 2014 watch, and last week, a friend of mine sold a 2018 watch for 69.000GBP.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Complicated timepieces existed for years and the industry faced extinction with the advent of the quartz watch and then Genta created the insanely overpriced stainless steel sports watch that was to be a status symbol and both AP and Patek were basically saved. That may bother some people, but it's factually true.

I’m afraid you factually incorrect. Patek hasn’t been saved by the Nautilus. Back in 2015 Patek commissioned the new manufacturing facility paid for as I understand it fully from cash reserves. In the same year 5711 was selling around list on the secondary market, the Nautilus craze hadn’t started. The 5711 is a great piece and one cog in the Patek arsenal, I understand you love it, but you don’t need to embellish the story beyond any credibility.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m afraid you factually incorrect. Patek hasn’t been saved by the Nautilus. Back in 2015 Patek commissioned the new manufacturing facility paid for as I understand it fully from cash reserves. In the same year 5711 was selling around list on the secondary market, the Nautilus craze hadn’t started. The 5711 is a great piece and one cog in the Patek arsenal, I understand you love it, but you don’t need to embellish the story beyond any credibility.

Dont bother arguing with him. He shift the truth to suit his blind love for the 5711. We all know Patek has been the pinnacle of watchmaking way before the 5711 and will continue to be way after. Only 5 years ago, dealers couldn’t give the 5711 away. Now all of the sudden, the world realized its the greatest watch ever??? Its a bubble inflated by rappers and IG just like Hublot 10 years ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by Keldw

I know of one who purchased a 2010 5711 in okay condition, for 51.800GBP in January, just a week before it was discontinued. In February a friend of mine paid 65.000GBP for a 2014 watch, and last week, a friend of mine sold a 2018 watch for 69.000GBP.

That’s useful real world market info. Thank you.

Some of these prices aren’t far off the 3700 Nautilus.......

I can’t imagine handing over £70k and getting a 5711 in return. It would make me sick.

Crazy times.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by italiafan

Ferrari does the same thing; reward Top customers with otherwise out of reach icona and version speciale cars.

The game has changed with them recently.

They’ve lifted the entry requirements for the uppermost cars...(LaFerrari level)

Buying 2-3 Ferraris a year is no guarantee with them now maybe because there are just so many people on their books doing that now. You really either need to incinerate money in Corsa Cliente, XX programme or race in the challenge series etc...

They recently burned collectors by not limiting/over producing their current 5711 - the Pista/Pista Spider - the values are tanking...

[ts3]

Originally Posted by shkure

Dont bother arguing with him. He shift the truth to suit his blind love for the 5711. We all know Patek has been the pinnacle of watchmaking way before the 5711 and will continue to be way after. Only 5 years ago, dealers couldn’t give the 5711 away. Now all of the sudden, the world realized its the greatest watch ever??? Its a bubble inflated by rappers and IG just like Hublot 10 years ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It may well be the bubble you have been arguing for. However, you are throwing stones in a glass house when it comes to bending the truth. Your favorite claim that dealers couldn't give the 5711 away only 5 years ago is more than an exaggeration. It remains false, period. See e.g. posts #69 or #78 for some real life experience from 2014 and 2015. Also, how come "you were never fortunate enough to get a 5711 at retail" as you said earlier if "dealers couldn't give them away" a few years ago?

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

The game has changed with them recently.

They’ve lifted the entry requirements for the uppermost cars...(LaFerrari level)

Buying 2-3 Ferraris a year is no guarantee with them now maybe because there are just so many people on their books doing that now. You really either need to incinerate money in Corsa Cliente, XX programme or race in the challenge series etc...

They recently burned collectors by not limiting/over producing their current 5711 - the Pista/Pista Spider - the values are tanking...

I have been contemplating the play of SS sports --> Pista.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by shkure

Dont bother arguing with him. He shift the truth to suit his blind love for the 5711. We all know Patek has been the pinnacle of watchmaking way before the 5711 and will continue to be way after. Only 5 years ago, dealers couldn’t give the 5711 away. Now all of the sudden, the world realized its the greatest watch ever??? Its a bubble inflated by rappers and IG just like Hublot 10 years ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm kind of curious, if you don't like the 5711 then why do you care what price it trades at? You should be delighted that speculators and wealthy idiots are foolishly squandering their money on the Nautilus and ignoring the terrific values in complicated watches. If they weren't then the 5270 might be their target and you could never have a chance to get one at a discount. I hope you're taking advantage of the opportunity to purchase one before the 5711 crash and the re-evaluation of the PP market elevates the 5270 beyond reach. Since you've seen this play before, use your experience to swoop in and grab the bargains before the crowd turns their eyes on your prize.

[italiafan]

Originally Posted by shkure

Dont bother arguing with him. He shift the truth to suit his blind love for the 5711. We all know Patek has been the pinnacle of watchmaking way before the 5711 and will continue to be way after. Only 5 years ago, dealers couldn’t give the 5711 away. Now all of the sudden, the world realized its the greatest watch ever??? Its a bubble inflated by rappers and IG just like Hublot 10 years ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You are so blinded by defending your position you spew hyperbolic lies. The 5711 was not a watch “they couldn’t give away” 5 years ago...ridiculous garbage. You have zero credibility now.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by italiafan

You are so blinded by defending your position you spew hyperbolic lies. The 5711 was not a watch “they couldn’t give away” 5 years ago...ridiculous garbage. You have zero credibility now.

You 5711 fans are too emotional lol. You just cant stand the fact that this watch was not that popular 5 years ago. Dont take my word for it. Here is Ben Clymer’s take:


Did he loose his credibility as well?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shkure]

Christies literally could not give them away. So take your blinders off.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by italiafan

You are so blinded by defending your position you spew hyperbolic lies. The 5711 was not a watch “they couldn’t give away” 5 years ago...ridiculous garbage. You have zero credibility now.

Originally Posted by shkure

You 5711 fans are too emotional lol. You just cant stand the fact that this watch was not that popular 5 years ago. Dont take my word for it. Here is Ben Clymer’s take...

Did he loose his credibility as well?

Originally Posted by shkure

Christies literally could not give them away. So take your blinders off.

This.

I remember back in 2015 walking into ADs and seeing 5711's in the case. Depends on the region/geo location, of course, but here in the US, I've seen enough sitting in cases back in 2015 to know that before the social media hype machine, the Nautiluses didn't move well.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I'm kind of curious, if you don't like the 5711 then why do you care what price it trades at? You should be delighted that speculators and wealthy idiots are foolishly squandering their money on the Nautilus and ignoring the terrific values in complicated watches. If they weren't then the 5270 might be their target and you could never have a chance to get one at a discount. I hope you're taking advantage of the opportunity to purchase one before the 5711 crash and the re-evaluation of the PP market elevates the 5270 beyond reach. Since you've seen this play before, use your experience to swoop in and grab the bargains before the crowd turns their eyes on your prize.

I never said i dont like the 5711. Its a cool watch. What i dont like is people buying into the hype thinking this goes to 150-200k. Its already crazy at 90k.

And still i didn’t get an answer as to why all of the sudden everybody realized this is the greatest Patek ever? Why didnt they see this in 2007? 2010? Heck even 2016? All those years the 5711 was trading below retail.

In regards to 5270, its one of the greatest watches ever made. I would always pick it over a steel 3 hander Nautilus for the same money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ichiran]

I doubt Hodinkee like the 5711 much (see the 3 on 3 below - no offense to Piaget fans).. the founder can't even reference 5711/1A correctly in the interview above. Not being pedantic here but in the world of Patek, there is a massive difference between an A and 1/A. He should at least get that one right.

[David001]

Originally Posted by shkure

I never said i dont like the 5711. Its a cool watch. What i dont like is people buying into the hype thinking this goes to 150-200k. Its already crazy at 90k.

And still i didn’t get an answer as to why all of the sudden everybody realized this is the greatest Patek ever? Why didnt they see this in 2007? 2010? Heck even 2016? All those years the 5711 was trading below retail.

This part of the forum appears to be following the Rolex part and descending into silly argument.

I remember when you could buy old Landrover Defenders for peanuts, but now they're fashionable and sell at a premium. It's simply trend and fashion, sometimes it's a bubble, sometimes the market resets and doesn't return to the previous low prices.

Hunter Wellington Boots, sold to a fairly small client base in rural areas, then they were made popular well over a decade ago by some TV personalities and they became very popular and became a popular fashion accessory. It's not a bubble, they're still popular and have never gone down in price.

A bunch of watches have become very fashionable, due to trend, publicity and hype. Previously they were more available but it's disingenuous to say that you couldn't give them away.
The watch never changed, the consumers did. They're now worth whatever people will pay for them.

It may be a bubble, but I suspect it will endure, the hype might settle a bit but I don't see them ever going back to being available for a lot less than they are now. I don't see much point getting annoyed about it.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by David001

I don't see much point getting annoyed about it.

Exactly.

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by David001

This part of the forum appears to be following the Rolex part and descending into silly argument.

I remember when you could buy old Landrover Defenders for peanuts, but now they're fashionable and sell at a premium. It's simply trend and fashion, sometimes it's a bubble, sometimes the market resets and doesn't return to the previous low prices.

Hunter Wellington Boots, sold to a fairly small client base in rural areas, then they were made popular well over a decade ago by some TV personalities and they became very popular and became a popular fashion accessory. It's not a bubble, they're still popular and have never gone down in price.

A bunch of watches have become very fashionable, due to trend, publicity and hype. Previously they were more available but it's disingenuous to say that you couldn't give them away.
The watch never changed, the consumers did. They're now worth whatever people will pay for them.

It may be a bubble, but I suspect it will endure, the hype might settle a bit but I don't see them ever going back to being available for a lot less than they are now. I don't see much point getting annoyed about it.

Well said.

[GreenLantern]

Yes, but Land Rover Defenders aren't going for 5x MSRP.

That's how a bubble is defined. Market resetting to acknowledge true value is totally different.

It's a bubble when every video I see on YouTube talks about "watches as investments."

I remember being taught as a kid that when your dentist starts talking about an investment asset, short it -- it's a bubble.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Yes, but Land Rover Defenders aren't going for 5x MSRP.

That's how a bubble is defined. Market resetting to acknowledge true value is totally different.

It's a bubble when every video I see on YouTube talks about "watches as investments."

I remember being taught as a kid that when your dentist starts talking about an investment asset, short it -- it's a bubble.

Well said. Here is another bubble indicator: Current 5711 trading near the price of the vintage 3700.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[David001]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Yes, but Land Rover Defenders aren't going for 5x MSRP.

That's how a bubble is defined. Market resetting to acknowledge true value is totally different.

It's a bubble when every video I see on YouTube talks about "watches as investments."

I remember being taught as a kid that when your dentist starts talking about an investment asset, short it -- it's a bubble.

You may be right, it could be a bubble, but if you'd have shorted it in 2016 it would be costing you a lot of money to hold that position and your dentist would have made more money

The 'bubble' might be like gold prices and sit in a bubble for a couple of decades.

Originally Posted by shkure

Well said. Here is another bubble indicator: Current 5711 trading near the price of the vintage 3700.

Both have an arbitrary value set by the market, neither are intrinsically worth more than the other.

At what point did a 3700 become worth what it sells for?

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by David001

My view is that the Nautilus style of watch is popular because it's uncluttered and just has nice clean classic looks.

The complicated pieces from Patak, FPJ, Greubel Forsey, Mille, etc, will only appeal to a limited number of pretty serious watch enthusiasts. I've been collecting watches for 30+ years and I think the engineering is fascinating, but visually many of them are pretty horrible.

Swizz watch pieces have become fashionable again and most who haven't spent years being a horology nut but now want to buy into it want something that looks classically nice - hence the RO's, GMT Rolex, Nautilus, etc.

Well said! I couldn't agree more!

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m afraid you factually incorrect. Patek hasn’t been saved by the Nautilus. Back in 2015 Patek commissioned the new manufacturing facility paid for as I understand it fully from cash reserves. In the same year 5711 was selling around list on the secondary market, the Nautilus craze hadn’t started. The 5711 is a great piece and one cog in the Patek arsenal, I understand you love it, but you don’t need to embellish the story beyond any credibility.

How about you get Your facts straight. The quartz watch threatened the swiss watch industry in the 1970's. Go learn about watch history and about what Gerald Genta did for AP and Patek in the 70's before you even think about correcting someone and discussing credibility. Just about everyone on this thread and the rest of the world knows this with the exception of you and Shkure.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by shkure

I never said i dont like the 5711. Its a cool watch. What i dont like is people buying into the hype thinking this goes to 150-200k. Its already crazy at 90k.

And still i didn’t get an answer as to why all of the sudden everybody realized this is the greatest Patek ever? Why didnt they see this in 2007? 2010? Heck even 2016? All those years the 5711 was trading below retail.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nobody in his right mind will doubt the hype of the last few years. But it is silly to keep bending the truth to defend your case. The 5711 wasn't trading below retail in 2016. New blue ones were around 20% above retail, used ones closer to retail. Do you have an idea about retail back then?

Originally Posted by shkure

Christies literally could not give them away. So take your blinders off.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So Christies supposedly had a hard time finding buyers by the end of a simultaneous 40-piece Nautilus sale in 2016. Do you think this supports your claim that ADs couldn't give 5711s away 5 years ago?

[ts3]

Originally Posted by David001

This part of the forum appears to be following the Rolex part and descending into silly argument.

I remember when you could buy old Landrover Defenders for peanuts, but now they're fashionable and sell at a premium. It's simply trend and fashion, sometimes it's a bubble, sometimes the market resets and doesn't return to the previous low prices.

Hunter Wellington Boots, sold to a fairly small client base in rural areas, then they were made popular well over a decade ago by some TV personalities and they became very popular and became a popular fashion accessory. It's not a bubble, they're still popular and have never gone down in price.

A bunch of watches have become very fashionable, due to trend, publicity and hype. Previously they were more available but it's disingenuous to say that you couldn't give them away.
The watch never changed, the consumers did. They're now worth whatever people will pay for them.

It may be a bubble, but I suspect it will endure, the hype might settle a bit but I don't see them ever going back to being available for a lot less than they are now. I don't see much point getting annoyed about it.

Good post.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by David001

I don't see them ever going back to being available for a lot less than they are now. I don't see much point getting annoyed about it.

Well said! I also don't understand guys talking bad about any watch. Taste cannot be disputed and this forum is for good folks who appreciate watches. Maybe some guys are just bitter that they missed out on getting it cheaper or were just never offered one. Either way it's a sad way to go through life spewing hatred towards anyone or anything.

Can we all just appreciate watches that appreciate?

See what I did there ;)

[shkure]

Originally Posted by ts3

Nobody in his right mind will doubt the hype of the last few years. But it is silly to keep bending the truth to defend your case. The 5711 wasn't trading below retail in 2016. New blue ones were around 20% above retail, used ones closer to retail. Do you have an idea about retail back then?



So Christies supposedly had a hard time finding buyers by the end of a simultaneous 40-piece Nautilus sale in 2016. Do you think this supports your claim that ADs couldn't give 5711s away 5 years ago?

If one of the biggest auction houses in the world cannot find 40 buyers for Nautiluses on a big anniversary year, that should tell you everything you need to know about this reference. And yes, 2016 is 5 years ago.

Originally Posted by ts3

The 5711 wasn't trading below retail in 2016. New blue ones were around 20% above retail, used ones closer to retail. Do you have an idea about retail back then?

Can you back that up? Because i attached an article by the biggest online publication saying otherwise. Or is it just another piece of anecdotal evidence to support your biased fandom of the 5711?

Nobody is doubting the hype, im actually saying its
over-hyped.

[Keldw]

Originally Posted by shkure

Can you back that up? Because i attached an article by the biggest online publication saying otherwise. Or is it just another piece of anecdotal evidence to support your biased fandom of the 5711?

.

I can only speak of where I am based, but in 2016, a 5711 was selling for around £3000-£4000 over retail depending on year and condition - and there was a waitlist at ad’s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk