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24 April 2022, 11:19 PM | #151 | |
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24 April 2022, 11:24 PM | #152 |
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Demand is what it is and that is what drives used prices. We do not call home buyers such things as "greedy" even though prices are through the roof. If someone wants a Rolex so much, they are willing to pay three times retail for a used one that is really their concern and right. When Rolex is no longer cool and passe, you will be able to buy all the watches you want from ADs, but will you want them then?
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24 April 2022, 11:27 PM | #153 |
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That's not an everyday watch though. I'm sure they'd buy a Platona too. But we saw them refuse more typical models in the video. I think that was what the poster meant. All I intended was that perhaps those more typical model refusals might slow down purchases at ADs for those models from flippers as they start to see they will not have an easy place to unload for quick cash.
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24 April 2022, 11:29 PM | #154 | |
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I suppose it seems that way to people with the means to buy a Rolex in the the same way it does to people who have the money to buy an F-car. |
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24 April 2022, 11:32 PM | #155 | |
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Prior to the premium trading, arbitrage in watches were mostly based on FX fluctuations (the collapse of the JPY in Dec 2012, The EURCHF peg removal in Jan 2015 by the SNB, the Indonesian Rupiah devaluation in 2020). This doesn't include all of the crisis of the world, but just to put out a picture of events where even Roman Sharf (luxurybazaar) has openly stated to purchase from ADs directly Since US Tarriff code breaks down the import of watches into 3 parts (movement being a flat fee, case and bracelet)... Importing the watches by these dealers either via HKG (tax free entity) or directly to the US could be done very cheaply via these ADs that were located in the original region. Do note that back in the day, most DJ, OP and PM were discounted, therefore a purchase means wholesale prices and more than a single watch... Everything is done as a package... Therefore, it is really naive to think that an arbitrage model only relies on the premium sticking around for a longer term... Longer term dealers have both survived the slowdown in 2014-2015 due to the Chinese anti corruption crackdown, Covid-19 debacle... I'm sure they are aware of the market and what needs to be done... |
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24 April 2022, 11:33 PM | #156 | |
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24 April 2022, 11:42 PM | #157 | |
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My point is all of that is capitalism at work. We cannot choose to enjoy just the benefits when it suits us, and not when it benefits other instead of ourselves. As I see it, Rolex is a non-essential luxury good that is being correctly distributed in a capitalist economy: According to who is able and willing to pay the most. Either via the grey market, or bundling, whatever. Being able to get one purely at msrp without prior purchase or bundling is actually a bonus, and not the norm at all in a system where the AD is trying to make as much money as they can within whatever restrictions are imposed upon them by Rolex, consumer laws etc. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 April 2022, 12:11 AM | #158 | |
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25 April 2022, 12:12 AM | #159 |
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and what its now
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25 April 2022, 12:16 AM | #160 | |
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The confirmed offers from flippers that was refused were a DD in PM at 49k (not a daily watch per your STD), a SD43 (which is clearly not as popular as a sub, but could be considered as a daily per price range), and TT DJs (also not a first option for many)... In this case, doesn't the market work as intended? As demand gets shaken up, the first hit that came was from what dealers consider the "secondary" models, and dealers correctly adjusted to not carry as much of those stock... At the end when a customer was looking for a TT DJ, CRM seem to insinuate an existing inventory for a wimbledon at 17.5k, I believe this was much lower than the prices in March (pre W&W2022).. Again back to the TT sub to picture on a "core" lineup with a "secondary" material, it wasn't mentioned how much was paid for it, but it looks like a new entry to inventory and is a 6 digit sub... Therefore, it could be a one-off purchase due to a great offering price by the seller |
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25 April 2022, 12:27 AM | #161 | |
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25 April 2022, 12:34 AM | #162 | |
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Again, as I stated in the long summary, selective buying is going on either based on prices or "core models"... So to conclude that things weren't moving is embellishing more than a little detail. Also this was confirmed by more than one posters that purchases are happening for select models at select prices... |
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25 April 2022, 12:40 AM | #163 |
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The prices have dropped a bit- nothing too crazy maybe at most 5-7% on most watches from what I’ve seen. Time will tell how much of a correction.
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25 April 2022, 01:03 AM | #164 | |
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I'm not sure why some get so defensive when any talk of the market dropping comes up. It's almost like many don't want the market to return to what it was before. For me, as a watch lover, the pre-2016 market was way better than today, and I would think all watch lovers would like a return to that. |
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25 April 2022, 01:10 AM | #165 |
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we had all the same threads last summer when things cooled off, especially due to crypto crashing, and then in the fall/winter prices went parabolic again. people here always overreact lol and when the daytona went from like 38 to 35 last summer there were threads daily. worst case prices dip and we can afford to get into some watches we've wanted
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25 April 2022, 01:12 AM | #166 |
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25 April 2022, 01:14 AM | #167 |
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I do think things have cooled. But who knows what happens next.
Yet on Rolex producing a million watches a year, that’s probably not the right number to focus on. The number Daytonas, GMT IIs, etc. in SS is a much smaller proportion. Or the “desired” dial combination with certain configurations. I expect most of the million is date justs and a lot is two toned. But in the things that are hyped it probably smaller. |
25 April 2022, 01:24 AM | #168 | |
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2.) If the best rebuttal you could come up with is that I am getting "defensive" re-read my entire summary. Show me where I had embellished any details of the exact video you quoted. I even went further to show You that one month ago CRM went on a patek purchasing spree worth $2m (their own words, not mine)... So financially they might be in a different spot than other dealers. 3.) I could say the same of you, why are you getting defensive and moving goal posts to what models should be a barometer to a "healthy market"... If things aren't moving, shouldn't one expect a 100k JM Daytona to drop in price 50% and for CRM to tell that particular client to "fly a kite" without quoting a range of outcome??? While no one knows what might happen in their life next week... I'd take your other side of the trade if you are looking for a 50% haircut... 4.) Instead of 2016, why not quote 2014? 2015? Things were more dire then, Chinese was cracking down on watches as "gifts" and prices were dropping like a rock... 5.) I love the price appreciation, I am not some whale unlike 99% of the folks here... I am fine and content with not being able to add watches or be buying lower end brands like Oris for my daily wear... Does that not make me a watch lover??? |
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25 April 2022, 01:34 AM | #169 | |
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GMT II 16710 TRADITIONAL ( D- Serial #) ROLEXFANBOY P-Club Member #4 |
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25 April 2022, 01:44 AM | #170 | |
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#5 is spot on. Sad part mostly everyone on the forum is buying grey market now without having the true Rolex Experience.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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25 April 2022, 01:52 AM | #171 |
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I wonder how many Peter (padi) has bought this year.
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25 April 2022, 01:56 AM | #172 |
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I just contacted my SA yesterday, was told the Rolex shortage is getting worse...lol
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25 April 2022, 02:01 AM | #173 |
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Another reason demand is high is we now have 'collectors" in the market. I suspect this is a relatively new phenomenon in the history of Rolex. For years virtually all folks bought one watch and that was it. Now we have buyers in the market that have to every model available and then multiples from there. Naturally, the ADs are inclined to cater to these enthusiasts, especially if they tend to keep what they buy. As these collectors load up on watches there are fewer to sell to the casual walk-in buyer with no purchase history. I still believe only a small fraction of Rolex watches end up being resold quickly but to the extent they do, they create a pathway for the everyday person to buy a watch. Not at retail at the moment, but at least at some price. In effect the market will return to normal where watches are in stock when the hoarding ends. I do not see that happening anytime soon. ADs tell me they do their best to spread the product around and pace the collectors as best they can, but it's a tough job to balance distribution where their long term best customers are involved.
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25 April 2022, 02:11 AM | #174 |
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Prices on the grey market are way way way above the AD prices, no surprise there when you consider the hype that surrounds Rolex.
I have no idea who pays these grey market prices, to be honest I don’t care what people do with their money as it is their choice what they decide to buy and how much they want to pay for something. All I do know is that getting a Rolex watch out of the AD is very difficult especially the ‘Professional’ models, if the bubble has sprung a leak and there has been a bit of deflation then in reality it is only a tiny bit of levelling out, the overall grey prices remain exceptionally high and well above AD prices and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
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25 April 2022, 02:14 AM | #175 |
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What’s a Peter (padi).??? Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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25 April 2022, 02:17 AM | #176 | |
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"And in that same episode, you see people calling who have not even received the watch from the AD yet and already looking to flip it. Maybe some of those will pass when they get the call..." The other poster said greys weren't buying anymore, not me. Having said that, I do see evidence in the video to support his argument. You clearly disagree. All good, no need for us to keep debating it, we can agree to disagree and see what happens over time. Last edited by rolex16; 25 April 2022 at 02:17 AM.. Reason: added quotes for clarity |
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25 April 2022, 02:17 AM | #177 | |
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25 April 2022, 02:35 AM | #178 | |
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Oh my bad, I'm glad this worked out for you. How are you enjoying that coral OP? |
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25 April 2022, 02:38 AM | #179 |
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25 April 2022, 02:49 AM | #180 |
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Tomorrow you can get a SS Daytona without waitlist at MSRP at your AD.
Wake up, thats dreaming. Dont see a crash, demand is very high. |
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