Talking Stocks 2.0

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

So I had added to my positions in GOOGL and FB the last 2 days prior to their earnings calls, with the intent of averaging down should earnings prove negative...which obviously hasn't been the case.

I'm on the fence about doing the same for V (report earnings tomorrow). Though MA did have positive news on their earnings, so I should probably pull a similar move for V. Guess we'll see how I'm feeling in the morning!

Good call. I own FB, and while I've been reluctant to add anything after this run up (much to my own dismay), I missed adding more FB by about 5 points.

Several stocks I've been hoping to add on a pullback have now gotten pretty far away from me.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Thanks, good article but I do not agree with it. Here is why I disagree

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...in-the-st.aspx

I have seen this type of research from other sources including Schwab

I tend to be in this camp as well. One of the main reasons is because timing the market can be incredibly difficult (if not impossible), so it's easier to just buy in at a decent chip and let it ride for long-term investors like me.

I have a constant eye on the news / markets and still can't get the timing right

[jltait]

Don’t fight the Fed - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

[Dusko.Popov]

Y’all are a lot smarter than me. I’m just a country lawyer with no formal background in this stuff.

But for those shorting and those saying the market is reacting way too positively to no and the possibility for good news, is it possible that maybe the sell off was way too reactionary and overdone?

I mean I’m in some restaurant and airline stocks that were 70%-90% down at one point and even after this rally is still 50% down from where they were on February 20th.

I don’t know the technical words to explain that phenomena but it seems like no one is acknowledging the possibility that the shit was just way oversold as of March 18th and the market is finding its way back to a place of more healthier skepticism.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Y’all are a lot smarter than me. I’m just a country lawyer with no formal background in this stuff.

But for those shorting and those saying the market is reacting way too positively to no and the possibility for good news, is it possible that maybe the sell off was way too reactionary and overdone?

I mean I’m in some restaurant and airline stocks that were 70%-90% down at one point and even after this rally is still 50% down from where they were on February 20th.

I don’t know the technical words to explain that phenomena but it seems like no one is acknowledging the possibility that the shit was just way oversold as of March 18th and the market is finding its way back to a place of more healthier skepticism.

I believe you are correct, the sell off was overdone and this move up is overdone IMHO.

Everyone needs to work with their plan and form a strategy. I am not going to tell anyone they are doing anything wrong, there are always two sides to every trade.

Personally, I believe the worst is behind us. How long it takes to really improve is anyone's guess. I have been buying and as of today I am looking at taking profits in some of my shorter trades as I think we may be entering a sideways trading range going into the summer.

I would not short the market here nor am I buying protection. Just my .02

[m j b]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

I shorted late today as I can’t understand why in the world this stock is going up.

Originally Posted by Duey

Be careful - You're using logic here and in today's market that just doesn't work with travel and leisure and gambling.

Ain't that the truth.

Originally Posted by RyanO

Sorry to hear that man. I've been in that boat myself before, and it never feels good, but its usually best to take the loss and move on.

Thanks. Both stocks ended up higher than when I covered, which made me feel a little better. They'll likely drop today, which is the story of my life.

Pardon me, I need to go out now, find some sand, dig a hole, and insert head until this is all over.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Pardon me, I need to go out now, find some sand, dig a hole, and insert head until this is all over.

I have been there and know how you feel, take a step back but keep paying attention.

Halfway through one of the strangest earnings seasons ever, here’s what we are learning

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/half...-learning.html

Just my opinion as this is what I am focused on:

12-18 months -- I am eligible to leave my current job with benefits, I have not decided what to do, capital preservation is more important to me, than growth, dividends are more important than just gains

The market is not the economy and the economy is not the market, I am focused on where stocks are valued based on what I want to own, high quality names with dividends and the possibility for growth.

The backbones of my portfolios are JPM, HD, MSFT, AAPL, ABBV, WM, T, INTC

I place other trades based on an individual stocks charts, balance sheet, ratings etc.

I bought UPS and MMM recently, UPS is not doing well and MMM is. My plans in this environment are 10% down is my sell limit, 5-7% down I consider averaging lower if I want to hold.

Look at stocks that have special circumstances based on events. Even the analysts are confused and with no guidance, there is less info to base a decision on.

MCD, YUM got hit this morning, are they buys for a rebound? Packaged foods MDLZ, STZ will they remain strong? SBUX, VZ, TGT solid trades for going forward no matter how the economy is doing? AAPL getting hit or doing better, 5G stocks, QCOM, AVGO, MRVL, the rollout will be slower but it has not stopped.

Take a step back if you feel overwhelmed, paper trade for a bit, don't focus on missing winners, layout a strategy and decide why you want to own any single stock. Then have a plan for each one.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Look at stocks that have special circumstances based on events. Even the analysts are confused and with no guidance, there is less info to base a decision on.

MCD, YUM got hit this morning, are they buys for a rebound? Packaged foods MDLZ, STZ will they remain strong? SBUX, VZ, TGT solid trades for going forward no matter how the economy is doing? AAPL getting hit or doing better, 5G stocks, QCOM, AVGO, MRVL, the rollout will be slower but it has not stopped.

One thing that I will say is that with the economy opening, it seems there's been a lot of placement in retail and restaurant stocks lately, which I somewhat understand.

What is more difficult to differentiate is whether these specific companies will get back to their pre-COVID state. Have the stock prices shot up too far? As an example, I bought MGM at 8.99 and now see it at $17...great return thus far, but do we add more? I hesitate to do it because while it was trading near the $40 mark before all this, I don't know much is left from here. Yet we're seeing other similar stocks start to shoot up, and now it's a question of is this the top of the price for the next 12 months as the companies struggle to match previous earnings.

In my opinion, restaurants /retail are pricing like we'll get back to normal, when we know that isn't going to happen quickly (tables 6 ft apart, 25% capacity, other "rules" lead me to this thinking). Earnings and stock prices should reflect that in the coming months, and I don't think that's necessarily the case today as people start to dump cash towards that sector.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

One thing that I will say is that with the economy opening, it seems there's been a lot of placement in retail and restaurant stocks lately, which I somewhat understand.

What is more difficult to differentiate is whether these specific companies will get back to their pre-COVID state. Have the stock prices shot up too far? As an example, I bought MGM at 8.99 and now see it at $17...great return thus far, but do we add more? I hesitate to do it because while it was trading near the $40 mark before all this, I don't know much is left from here. Yet we're seeing other similar stocks start to shoot up, and I now it's a question of is this the top of the price for the next 12 months as the companies struggle to match previous earnings.

I do not follow MGM but it seems to me that a rising tide that lifts all boats is not the same thing as a tsunami that rushes out and then rushes back in and wipes everything out.

Any stock with that kind of run in my portfolio would be a serious contender for a sell. Yes I might miss upside but I would also have twice as much cash to work with. You could also sell half and let the profits run while taking back your original investment. I have done this over the years with many positions and now have stocks that are all profit generating dividends for me while I have reinvested the original cash.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I do not follow MGM but it seems to me that a rising tide that lifts all boats is not the same thing as a tsunami that rushes out and then rushes back in and wipes everything out.

Any stock with that kind of run in my portfolio would be a serious contender for a sell. Yes I might miss upside but I would also have twice as much cash to work with. You could also sell half and let the profits run while taking back your original investment. I have done this over the years with many positions and now have stocks that are all profit generating dividends for me while I have reinvested the original cash.

That's my wife's general outlook, and I who am I to say she's wrong.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

That's my wife's general outlook, and I who am I to say she's wrong.

Indeed. My wife doesn't invest (she's risk adverse) but I also believe that if something has gone up a lot as described above, you sell half.

Of course, as always (this should be my signature) disregard anything that I suggest and always do the opposite of what I do.

[JParm]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/356694...rmanent-change

Might not reflect much change in stock price in the interim, but I think this is great - less reliance on brick and mortar, thus less rent and sunk costs.

Banks are an investing win during this time either way. Prices still look attractive.

[derekhayden]

Originally Posted by beshannon

You could also sell half and let the profits run while taking back your original investment. I have done this over the years with many positions and now have stocks that are all profit generating dividends for me while I have reinvested the original cash.

This is how I handle most my investments and it's great advice for any investor. I have seen so many people chase more just to be let down and wish they took profits when they could. Greed is an investors worst enemy. IMO that's gambling not trading / investing.

[JParm]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...tercards-print

For the V owners out there. Earnings are out this afternoon. With the combination of what's looking to be a red opening, I'll most likely add this morning in anticipation. As usual, if it goes down post earnings, I'll buy more.

[m j b]

Yep. CCL and BA both down big time this morning, I should have waited to cover my shorts, but I just couldn't bear to watch them climb, climb, climb yesterday.

Oh well. It's only money. It's not like I need it to live on, buy food and maintain shelter.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...tercards-print

For the V owners out there. Earnings are out this afternoon. With the combination of what's looking to be a red opening, I'll most likely add this morning in anticipation. As usual, if it goes down post earnings, I'll buy more.

I am undecided, I want to get back in, it is pricey here even with todays open, not sure how much it has left with a price target of 195 based on little visibility

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Yep. CCL and BA both down big time this morning, I should have waited to cover my shorts, but I just couldn't bear to watch them climb, climb, climb yesterday.

Oh well. It's only money. It's not like I need it to live on, buy food and maintain shelter.

Just my .02 but you are playing with fire on both of those, rising on "hopes" of a recovery when hope is not a viable investment strategy. Then hoping they might go down because they should not be up?

I wish you luck

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am undecided, I want to get back in, it is pricey here even with todays open, not sure how much it has left with a price target of 195 based on little visibility

I agree. I got in at 165 on Visa and wouldn't buy any more at anything over 170 myself.

[Uggi]

KO dropping hard below the moving average. Getting close to my buy target for another nibble.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am undecided, I want to get back in, it is pricey here even with todays open, not sure how much it has left with a price target of 195 based on little visibility

I don't think Visa will rally quite like the tech stocks do after hours on a red day (I don't think MA did either).

Sold a bit of AXP in anticipation of it coming down a bit. Will buy back in when it goes a bit lower.

Apple is my big question today on whether to hold and go through the earnings call hopefully unscathed or take a bit of profit today first.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am undecided, I want to get back in, it is pricey here even with todays open, not sure how much it has left with a price target of 195 based on little visibility

Originally Posted by Uggi

I agree. I got in at 165 on Visa and wouldn't buy any more at anything over 170 myself.

Originally Posted by logo

I don't think Visa will rally quite like the tech stocks do after hours on a red day (I don't think MA did either).

Sold a bit of AXP in anticipation of it coming down a bit. Will buy back in when it goes a bit lower.

Apple is my big question today on whether to hold and go through the earnings call hopefully unscathed or take a bit of profit today first.

Good points.

[beshannon]

Markets up 150 off the low now only down 185, MCD, V, MA down AAPL earnings after the bell

I am scanning for profits to take but have not done so yet

[JParm]

I've been slowly adding to BABA. Though it hasn't risen all that much in the last couple weeks, it still provides a very strong value prop and gives you something outside of the American market.

Not only are they like AMZN in terms of retail, but they are also building up their cloud service.

As always, do your own homework on the company, but this is one that I would keep an eye on.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NY.../price-target/

[Zack21]

First off, I want to thank everyone that contributes to this board for helping to educate me on investment information. I also greatly appreciate the tolerance (for those of us less financially savvy) and friendly atmosphere on this Board. So, here is my novice query: is there any downside to investing in XLK to gain tech exposure for the long haul. I realize most contributors here are probably more skilled at selecting opportune individual tech stocks but, I am looking for hopefully a bit less risk through the diversification of this ETF. Thanks.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Zack21

is there any downside to investing in XLK to gain tech exposure for the long haul.

It's nicely positioned and sure has done well recently. I think if you make it part of a diversified portfolio, you know like maybe 20% of your holdings, that would be fine. You don't want to put all of your eggs in any basket.

Originally Posted by m j b

Pardon me, I need to go out now, find some sand, dig a hole, and insert head until this is all over.

OK, well, it turns out that the wifi signal is not so good down there when you're buried in the sand.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by Zack21

First off, I want to thank everyone that contributes to this board for helping to educate me on investment information. I also greatly appreciate the tolerance (for those of us less financially savvy) and friendly atmosphere on this Board. So, here is my novice query: is there any downside to investing in XLK to gain tech exposure for the long haul. I realize most contributors here are probably more skilled at selecting opportune individual tech stocks but, I am looking for hopefully a bit less risk through the diversification of this ETF. Thanks.

ETFs won't suffer from the large swings an individual stock will see, and it's already "diversified" in the sense that you're looking at a cluster of companies rather than just one. I think it's a good foundation that will seek to minimize risk while adding blunted upside, but you'll want to sprinkle in some small or mid cap companies for growth prospects. If you are risk adverse, you could also look at ETFs for those as well.

FWIW, if I were going to pick an ETF for the tech sector, I'd use VGT. It has a lower expense ratio and similar results.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by m j b

Yep. BA down big time this morning

With all the bad news, pain and simple truth that is, coming out about Boeing that means the stock will GO UP (and yes it is up now)

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Duey

With all the bad news, pain and simple truth that is, coming out about Boeing that means the stock will GO UP (and yes it is up now)

There was strong demand for BA bonds that is the reason for the up move at least for now. BA was seeking 20bb in paper and was over subscribed by 2.5x

[beshannon]

The market seems to have settled at lower levels and is steady down -355

With AMZN and AAPL reporting, I think traders are content to close out April with gains and the window dressing happened yesterday.

I was looking at taking profits but will wait for the earnings and then see where we are at the open tomorrow

[JParm]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

What is more difficult to differentiate is whether these specific companies will get back to their pre-COVID state. Have the stock prices shot up too far? As an example, I bought MGM at 8.99 and now see it at $17...great return thus far, but do we add more? I hesitate to do it because while it was trading near the $40 mark before all this, I don't know much is left from here. Yet we're seeing other similar stocks start to shoot up, and now it's a question of is this the top of the price for the next 12 months as the companies struggle to match previous earnings.

Originally Posted by beshannon

I do not follow MGM but it seems to me that a rising tide that lifts all boats is not the same thing as a tsunami that rushes out and then rushes back in and wipes everything out.

Any stock with that kind of run in my portfolio would be a serious contender for a sell. Yes I might miss upside but I would also have twice as much cash to work with. You could also sell half and let the profits run while taking back your original investment. I have done this over the years with many positions and now have stocks that are all profit generating dividends for me while I have reinvested the original cash.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...-covidminus-19

A more bullish view on MGM vs. my neutral stance from here. I haven't decided what I want to do just yet, other than the fact that I won't be selling today with all the red. Tomorrow could be a different story...I still see all 3 options on the table for me (sell some, add some or hold - I won't completely sell out as I like brand itself).